Transcript Section 2 : The Impacts of energy insecurity

Section 2 : The Impacts of
energy insecurity
Key ideas

Energy pathways, between
producers and consumers, are
complex and show increasing levels
of risk
What do we mean by an ‘energy
pathway’? Look at the information on
page 24 of Oxford and 16 on Pearson
sheet.
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Fossil fuel supply regions are poorly
matched with areas of largest demand
This is especially true for oil and gas
Energy must flow along international
pathways from producer to consumer
These are either pipelines (oil and gas),
bulk carriers (coal, uranium), LNG
tankers (gas) or oil tankers. Electricity is
also exported / imported.
Routes may be complicated by
 Natural or environmental issues
 Human or political issues
Major oil trade movements 2012
Trade flows worldwide (million tonnes)
BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2013
© BP 2013
What are the human and physical
reasons why pathways may be
disrupted? Discuss in pairs...
Natural
disasters
e.g.
hurricane
Katrina
Producer’s
supply
simply
runs out
Price and
payment
disputes
Pathway
disruption
Technical
interruption
to
production Diversion
of supply,
perhaps
for a
higher
price
Piracy
e.g. off
the
Somali
coast
Subsidence
under
pipelines eg
alaska for
short periods
Terrorism
or conflict
closing
choke
Political
points
discord
between
supplier
and
consumer
Risks of disruption
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Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes
between Russia and Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in
2006 and 2009
Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40%
(and 56% of oil)
Read p 17-19 Pearson sheet about Russia
(and at home read
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis
putes and p 22-27 Oxford and write notes)
Choke points
Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously
affect the flow of oil
Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia,
Yemen)
Eg Somali pirates (2011 onwards)
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldafrica-12412488
Risks of disruption
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
There are real risks if oil and
gas supplies are disrupted.
Any potential disruption is
headline news
So dependent are we on
cheap, uninterrupted energy
supplies that disruption could
lead to:
Soaring energy costs and rising
energy poverty
Pressure on politicians to act;
possibly rationing energy
Civil disruption
Rising costs for industry, job
losses and recession
Unsound decisions
(economically and
environmentally) to rapidly
develop alternative sources
Diplomatic conflict
UK energy disruption
Oct
1973
Oil crisis; petrol
rationing
Sept
2000
UK wide fuel protests
over price and tax
Aug
2005
Further UK protests;
Hurricane Katrina
pushes oil prices
higher
Aug
2008
Oil at $147 a barrel
Jan
2010
National Grid ‘gas
balancing alerts’ are
headline news ; gas
supply from Norway
drops on technical
problems