Transcript Slide 1

How much energy can we save globally by making
our buildings efficient?
Towards a factor 4 policy for buildings
9 December 2009
Copenhagen
Jens Laustsen,
Senior Policy Analyst for Efficiency in Buildings,
International Energy Agency IEA
Key messages
• Energy efficiency is a critical part of a sustainable
energy future
• Buildings energy use can be reduced dramatically
alone with existing solutions
• A reduction to ¼ of BAU in 2050 is rational and
economic reasonable (Factor 4)
• IEA 25 recommendations provide direction
high emphasis on buildings
• W.I.N = World-wide Implementation Now
© OECD/IEA, 2009
–
Energy efficiency – critical part of
sustainable energy future
Buildings:
Can deliver large reductions
in CO2 emissions at low
costs
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Mtoe
What the world needs!
Long term GHG mitigation
18 000
Other renewables
16 000
Hydro
14 000
Nuclear
12 000
Biomass
10 000
Gas
8 000
Coal
6 000
Oil
4 000
2 000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
World energy demand expands by
45% between now and 2030 – an
average rate of increase of 1.6% per
year – source WEO 2008
© OECD/IEA, 2009
2020
2030
Gt
World abatement of energy related CO2
emissions in the 450 Scenario
42
40
Share of abatement %
2020 2030
Reference Scenario
38
Efficiency
65
57
36
End-use
59
52
6
5
18
20
Biofuels
1
3
Nuclear
13
10
3
10
34
32
3.8 Gt
13.8 Gt
Renewables
30
28
26
2007 2010 2015
450 Scenario
2020
2025
Power plants
CCS
2030
Efficiency measures account for two-thirds
of the 3.8 Gt of abatement in 2020,
with renewable energy contributing close to one-fifth
World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Energy efficiency in buildings is climate
change abatement at low costs
• Why? - They are feasible on long term!
Renewable Energy
Buildings
Buildings
IEA: Energy technology perspective 2008
McKinsey institute: Climate reports 2007 - 2009
• Many recent studies shows exactly the same trends!
• How far can we take energy efficiency in buildings at rational costs?
• Examples from ongoing IEA studies!
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Zero Carbon / Zero Energy
BedZet, London, UK
The way to Zero Energy Buildings in US, DOE
Is this possible?
Zero Carbon
2019
Development of UK
Buildings Codes
Solar Siedlung Vauban
Freiburg, Germany
Plus Energy
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Building Codes Towards Zero
How does this become mainstream ?
kWh per m² per year
•
Setting zero targets:
2020 Netherlands, EU (EPBD rev.)
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2025 / 30 California Energy Commission
Package for existing Buildings
Frankfurt Refurbishment using Passive House Technology
Factor 10
87%
Source: Passivehouse
Institute / DENA
© OECD/IEA, 2009
All existing buildings need to be
refurbished in next 40 - 50 years
Better than new !
Energy standard refurbishment
300
Germany
250
200
Primary losses
Losses in system
Hot sanitory water
150
Demands new
100
Energy demand
Minus 30 %
Minus 50 %
50
St. Petersburg, Russia
Factor 10
kWh7(m²a)
Demands refurbishment
Very Best practice
Renovation in Germany
Factor 10
us
e
%
ho
si
ve
P
as
m
nE
V
E
E
nE
V
m
in
u
s
30
in
u
s
50
%
s
in
g
ui
ld
B
E
vE
V
N
ew
S
nE
V
E
E
xi
st
in
g
bu
an
ild
ie
r
in
un
g
gs
0
Source: DENA Besser als ein Neubau
28 kWh/m² 28 kWh/m²
22 kWh/m² 44 kWh/m² 21 kWh/m² 35 kWh/m²
- 91 %
- 89 %
- 88 %
© OECD/IEA, 2009
- 83 %
- 96 %
- 90 %
In very hot climates
A very hot climates shading is a key element
Shading
No windows
West and East
Wind tunnel
Close
Self Shading
Trees
No windows west and east
Traditional housing in Singapore, JL 2009
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Airflow
Greening of facades
Green makes
cooler and
protects
for sun
Singapore 2009
Renovation
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Zero Energy in Singapore
• High insulation levels
• Efficient Windows
• Shading / threes
• Greening facades
• Efficient Cooling, Vent.
• Solar PV
BCA - Academy – JL November 2009
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Energy efficiency (ZEB / Existing)
•Cold Climate:
•Hot Climate:
•High insulation levels
– All parts of building
•Efficient windows
– Keep heat in
•Optimal use of passive solar
– Passive house
•Efficient heating, ventilation
•Use of renewable energy
•High insulation levels
– In particular roof, east, west
•Efficient windows
– Keep heat out (÷ east, west)
•Optimal use of shading
– Greening of facades
•Efficient cooling, ventilation
•Use of renewable energy
– Solar thermal
•Holistic approach
•Efficient products
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– PV Photo Voltaic
•Holistic approach
•Efficient products
What if we do all this at the same time?
IEA study in progress
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Study on Energy Efficient Buildings
If best practice examples and policies were implemented global and fast:
• Energy use for buildings (heating, cooling, ventilation and hot water) could
be reduced far beyond 50 %
• 75 % reduction compared to BAU would be both possible and rational
• Book to document this will be out early 2010 (9 different religions)
• Such and implementation of energy efficiency in buildings would have
massive impact on:
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•
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•
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Global energy use,
Security of supply,
CO2 emissions,
Global health,
World economy,
Investments in supply,
Will create millions of new jobs
• Increased research and deployment
increase this potential
World reduction end use
120000
100000
80000
Savings Com
60000
Savings Res
40000
Commercial
20000
Residential
© OECD/IEA, 2009
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
0
can
Conclusions
• Energy efficiency in buildings is
www:
• Consumers win because they
get lower fuel costs and lower
total costs over time, increased
comfort
• Business wins because it
creates activities and new jobs
locally
• Governments win because it
implements climate policy
goals, improves security of
supply, improves economy and
health
• Potential is enormous
• Can contribute substantially to
climate abatement policies
• A reduction with factor 3 or 4 is
possible alone with known solutions
• Policies exist but need larger
scope and global implementation
• Many barriers to overcome
• EE in buildings is cost efficient and
it will save large investments and
costs in supply
• EE in buildings will have many
additional benefits: health,
security of supply, creation of
employment
• 25 IEA recommendations endorsed by the G8 and large
developing countries
• We need W.I.N
• World-wide Implementation Now
Much more can be done – both in new and existing buildings
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Thank you
For more information buildings and recommendations:
•
•
www.iea.org
www.iea.org/G8/2008/G8_EE_recommendations.pdf
Contact:
[email protected]
© OECD/IEA, 2009