Transcript Slide 1
Assessing the Growth of the 450 Digital Market 2004 – A Year in review Joe Nordgaard IA450 Board Member for Iberiatel Managing Director Spectral Advantage LLC [email protected] IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 2004 – the cdma450 flames catch “You can blow out a candle But you can't blow out a fire Once the flames begin to catch The wind will blow it higher.” Peter Gabriel – Biko (A tribute to Stephen Biko, a murdered Black South African rights activist) IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 – A Year in Review Regulatory Actions and Decisions Standards and Association Activities Operator Growth Subscriber Growth – EMC Update Media and Markets New Vendors and Products Top Five 450 Events of the Past Year IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Regulatory Actions and Decisions March - CEPT Decision (ECC/DEC/(04)06) (http://www.ero.dk/documentation/docs/doccategory.asp?catid =1&catname=ECC/ERC/ECTRA%20Decisions) May - India’s TRAI spectrum consultation (http://www.trai.gov.in/consultation.htm) July - Brazil files to Harmonize 450 throughout the Americas in the CITEL (http://www.citel.oas.org/) IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Regulatory Actions and Decisions Microsoft’s closing remarks in their TRAI filing: Microsoft strongly endorses TRAI’s ongoing commitment to removing regulatory barriers to new services. We also agree with TRAI that wireless technologies can play an increasingly important role in the expansion of robust and easily accessible broadband networks. In the context of this Spectrum Consultation, we encourage TRAI to consider that 450 MHz spectrum could be used for both mobile and terrestrial wireless broadband services, and that both unlicensed and licensed solutions will benefit consumers. Sincerely, Rajiv Kaul Managing Director Microsoft Corporation India Private Limited. http://www.trai.gov.in/spectrum/Microsoft%20Corporation.pdf IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Regulatory Actions and Decisions Norway licenses via auction, France, Germany and UK open consultations Sweden plans to license via auction, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan license, Finland trial, Licensing in Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Nigeria South Africa and Namibia consultation, Moldova allocates, Jamaica opens consultation, Balkans study IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 Cdma450 deployments, scheduled deployments and trials = cdma450 = cdma450 deployments announced or planned = Trial = regulatory investigation IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 Cdma450 activity in Russia Commercial Development planned Commercial deployments announcement Trials Volga Tel, UralWestcom © Spectral Advantage LLC Cdma450 in China = cdma450 Commercial China Telecom = cdma450 quasi-commercial Wireline franchise Wireline franchise IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Standards and Association Activities Dec. - ITU-D Study "Economics of Migration to IMT-2000" Dec. - ITU IMT-2000 Seminar – Ljubljana, Slovenia March – Telexpo ANATEL Trial – Sao Paulo, Brazil March - CTIA Skylink Presentation - Atlanta, USA April - IA450 First Plenary - Shenzhen, China April - IA450/CDG Joint Seminar - Shenzhen, China IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Standards and Association Activities June - ETSI Harmonize Standards - cdma450 June – 3GPP2 Market Representation Partner Warsaw, Poland July - ETSI initiates cdma450 EMC guidelines July – CITEL PCC.II initials 450 study, Sept - IA450 Second Plenary Bucharest, Romania IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 3GPP2 Structure Steering Committee Chair: Dr. Hideo Okinaka (KDDI) Vice Chair: Gerry Flynn (Verizon Wireless) Vice Chair: Dr. Y.K. Kim (LG Telecom) Vice Chair: Wan Yi (CCSA) Secretariat: Henry Cuschieri Organizational Partners Market Representation Partners TSG-A TSG-C TSG-X Access Network Interfaces cdma2000 Radio Interface Core Networks TSG-S Services & Systems Aspects CDG IPv6 Forum IA450 IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Operator Growth Europe: Norway, Russia (3 or 4 more) Asia: Vietnam, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Cambodia, Laos Africa: Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Media and Markets Lehman Brothers “CDMA450: Perpetuating Asia’s “Growth + Profitability” Story?” Goldman Sachs “Asia-Pacific Telecom Services: 3G in China” Ovum “CDMA450: leapfrogging the mobile generations” IDC “Central and Eastern Europe Broadband Access Services 2004-2008 Forecast” Current Analysis on Lucent’s cdma450 manufacturing move to Poland Report EMC Update “Market Opportunities for CDMA-450” Nomura Report (TBA) Merrill Lynch Report (TBA) IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Media and Markets CDG 450 news: http://www.cdg.org/technology/3g/cdma450/cdma450_news.asp Dow Jones Newswire Financial Times 3G Mobile/Global Mobile Mobile Communications International RCR and Wireless Week in US Forbes The economist TelecomAsia IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Operator Growth - EUROPE = NEW COUNTRY STATUS Vendor Romania commercial Lucent Delta Telecom/Skylink 5 Regions Russia Commercial/Pre-Com. Lucent Volga Telecom Russia Commercial/Trial Huawei Kuzbass Cellular Russia commercial Huawei Bashkortostan Cellular Russia deploying Huawei UralWestcom Russia trial Nortel Belcel Belarus commercial Huawei Eurotel Czech Rep commercial Nortel Latvia pre-commercial Nortel Portugal pre-commercial Motorola/ Huawei Iberiatel Georgia commercial Huawei BTC Bulgaria trial Huawei Poland trials Lucent/Huawei Operator Telemobile/Zapp Telecom Balitja Radiomovel Centerel IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Operator Growth - Asia = NEW COUNTRY STATUS Vendor China Telecom China commercial Huawei China Netcom China quasi-commercial Huawei/ZTE Indonesia commercial Huawei Vietnam commercial ZTE/Huawei/LU Uzbekistan commercial Huawei Laos deploying Huawei Pakistan deploying Huawei Cambodia deploying Huawei Turkmen deploying Huawei Operator PT Mandara Selular VPT Telecom-Maytex LTC PTCL Camshin MCT IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Operator Growth - Africa = NEW COUNTRY STATUS Vendor Nitel Nigeria contract Huawei TDM Mozambique trial Huawei Uganda telecom Uganda commercial Huawei Ethiopia Telecom Ethiopia deploying Huawei Kenya deploying Huawei Operator TKL IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review Operator Growth - Americas Operator COUNTRY = NEW STATUS Vendor ANATEL/CBTC/Unicel Brazil trial Lucent Huawei ZTE Telefonica Peru trial Huawei IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 IA450 - A Year in Review New Vendors and Products New Infrastructure vendors – New Handset vendors – UTStarcom Axesstel Ubiquam R-Way Some New Product Teasers… IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004 Ericsson’s CDMA 450 MHz Offering & Progress • Mobile Market Leader – 60% of NMT market share – Largest infrastructure vendor in Europe and worldwide • Product offering based on Common 3G platforms – Same hardware for WCDMA, CDMA on all frequencies • Lower CAPEX and OPEX • Expedites TTM • Guarantees Economies of Scale • On-site demos on 450 MHz equipment – Voice calls (mobile & WLL) on commercial CDMA2000 1X equipment – Always Best Connected on commercial CDMA2000 1X and DO equipment September 2004 Ericsson Proprietary and Confidential 21 CDMA450 Evolution Comparison (illustrations to scale) Modcell 2.0 Modcell ES Compact 4.0 •1-3C, 1-3S •EVDO •1-3C, 1-3S •EVDO •Efficiency •Size •1-3C, 1-3S •EVDO •Ant. Diagnostics • Efficiency • Size Lucent Technologies - Proprietary 1. HX-525B Concept 1) Handset Item Specification Item Specification Mode CDMA 450Mhz Memory MCP(128+32) Type Bar type Vibrator O Size 109 x 47 x 20 (mm) Charger Inner Charger Weight Around 90 g UIM O (Optional) MSM MSM5000 USB X LCD 128×128 Dots 1.5” 4096 CSTN Carkit Rubber O Battery Li-ion : 900mAh Antenna Fixed Antenna Sound Yamaha 16 Poly Speaker phone O Option Item 1. Ear-Mic 2. Data Cable 2) Accessory Bundle Item 1. AC/DC Adopter 2. Battery(900mAh) - Soft Pack type 3. User Manual CuriTel Confidential 2. HX-550C Concept 1) Handset Item Specification Item Specification Mode CDMA 450MHz Memory MCP(128+32) Type Clamshell Vibrator O.K Size about 88×47×23 (mm) UIM O.K Weight About 100 g USB O.K MSM MSM5100 Carkit Rubber O.K Antenna Fixed Antenna (8φ) LCD Main: 128×160 Dots 1.8” 65K CSTN Sub : 96x64 B/W STN Keypad LED Blue Battery Li-ion : 970mAh Power LED 2 Color LED CMX 16 Poly Inner Charger O.K Sound Keypad (26 But.) 1. Numeric Key --- (12) 2. Side-Key --- (3) 3. Function Key --- (11) 2) Accessory Bundle Item 1. Standard Battery (970mAh) 2. Traveler Charger 2. User Manual CuriTel Confidential Option Item 1. Ear-Mic 2. Data Cable 3. HX-560C Concept 1) Handset Item Specification Item Specification Mode CDMA 450MHz Memory MCP(64+32) Type Slide Vibrator O.K Size about 89.8×44×22 (mm) UIM O.K Weight About 90 g USB O.K MSM MSM6025 Carkit Rubber O.K Antenna Fixed Antenna (8φ) LCD Main: 128×160 Dots 1.8” 65K CSTN Keypad LED Blue Battery Li-ion : 760mAh Power LED 2 Color LED CMX 32 Poly Inner Charger O.K Sound Keypad (26 But.) 1. Numeric Key --- (12) 2. Side-Key --- (3) 3. Function Key --- (10) 2) Accessory Bundle Item 1. Standard Battery (1000mAh) 2. Traveler Charger 2. User Manual CuriTel Confidential Option Item 1. Ear-Mic 2. Data Cable IA450 - A Year in Review Top Five 450 Events of the Past Year CEPT Ruling (ECC/DEC/(04)06) – 46 member countries. Brazil ANATEL trial and subsequent call for harmonization throughout the Americas at CITEL – 35 member countries Eurotel cdma450 EVDO Launch Indian TRAI consultation – including 450 specifically for CDMA IA450/CDG/Huawei Conference IBC Digitizing 450 MHz Bucharest Sept 8, 2004