Transcript Slide 1

Nuclear Power – Global Growth and
Opportunities for SMR Technology
5th International Forum ATOMEXPO, St. Petersburg, June 26, 2013
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Worldwide nuclear capacity is concentrated in 4 locations:
US, France / Europe, Japan, and Russia
World mapping of nuclear installed base – May 2013
KEY FIGURES
> 384 operating reactors in
30 countries if excluding
Japan (vs 444 reactors in 30
countries before the
Fukushima disaster)
> 322 GWe net capacity if
excluding Japan (vs 373 preFukushima )
> 58% of reactors located in
the USA and Western Europe
Nuclear Plants
Nuclear Countries
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
> Nuclear reactors in Japan still
idled as of now (last operating
one put in maintenance early
May 2012)
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More than 80 per cent of installed nuclear capacity is concentrated
in 10 countries
Country breakdown of installed base – May 2012 view [# units ; MWe net]
MAJOR
NUCLEAR
COUNTRIES
SMALL
NUCLEAR
COUNTRIES
United States
France
Japan
Russian Federation
Korea RO (South)
China (incl.Taiwan)
India
Canada
United Kingdom
Ukraine
Sweden
Germany
Spain
Belgium
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Slovak Republic
Finland
Hungary
Pakistan
Mexico
Romania
South Africa
Brazil
Bulgaria
Argentina
Armenia
Slovenia
Netherlands
Iran
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
104 (98,658)
58 (63,110)
37 (32,970)
33 (23,917)
23 (19,921)
21 (16,671)
20 (4,281)
18 (12,569)
16 (10,058)
15 (13,168)
10 (9,101)
9 (12,008)
8 (7,442)
7 (5,755)
6 (3,707)
5 (3,220)
4 (1,656)
4 (2,676)
4 (1,889)
3 (725)
2 (1,600)
2 (1,305)
2 (1,842)
2 (1,896)
2 (1,906)
2 (935)
1 (376)
1 (676)
1 (452)
1 (915)
∑ = 421 reactors
355 GWe
∑ = 384 reactors
322 GWe
(if excl. Japan)
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Since Fukushima, the operating nuclear base has decreased by 5%
- restarts of idled reactors in Japan is on Abe´s political agenda
Number and capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
444
29
6
421
Operating reactors
pre Fukushima
Shutdowns / long
term suspensions
Commissionning
Operating reactors
in May 2012
373 GW
24 GW
5 GW
355 GW
Operating reactors
pre Fukushima
# reactors
Shutdowns / long
term suspensions
Commissionning
Operating reactors
in May 2012
> Including Japanese reactors damaged by
the tsunami or shutdown on a long term
basis by government request, we observe a
net substraction of 24 GW (29 reactors) to
the operating base
> Shutdowns are concentrated in Japan
(14.6 GW, 18 reactors), Germany (8.3 GW,
8 reactors) and the UK (0.9 GW, 3 reactors)
> Additions are in China (1.6 GW, 2 reactors),
Iran (0.9 GW, 1 reactor), Russia (0.5 GW, 1
reactor) and South Korea (1.9 GW, 2
reactors)
GWe
Source: WNA, WNN, IAEA, Roland Berger analysis
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Overall, the Fukushima impact will remain small on installed base, but
more significant on new build– over 60% delays in "low" scenario
Impact on INSTALLED BASE
[# reactors]
444
444
29
1
414
(93%)
Impact on NEW BUILD
444
29
66
[# reactors]
Early shutdown
High
310
9 10
Life span extension
not granted
Announced
or planned
3
310
10
51
Cancelled
142
Delayed
> 5 years
50
Delayed
> 2 years
Low
Frozen
over 2030
143
248
349
No impact
(79%)
Under
construction
Operating
in 2010
310
145
(47%)
62
2010
projects
High
57
No impact
(18%)
Low
Typical life span: 40 years. Typical extension: 20 additional years
Source: Roland Berger nuclear database
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The Nuclear market is still expanding. 60 GW under construction
worldwide, thereof 75% in BRIC countries
Country breakdown of the NPP under construction – May 2012 [# units ; MWe net]
COMMENTS
China (incl. Taiwan)
28 (29,234)
Russian Federation
10 (8,714)
India
7 (5,074)
Korea RO (South)
4 (5,050)
United States
3 (3,565)
Ukraine
2 (1,900)
Slovak Republic
2 (840)
Pakistan
2 (630)
France
1 (1,650)
Finland
1 (1,600)
Brazil
1 (1,245)
Iran
1 (915)
Argentina
1 (692)
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
∑ = 62 reactors
60 GWe
> Most of NPPs under construction are
located in Asia and Eastern Europe
– China (mainland and Taiwan) is the main
country for reactors under construction
– Significant activity in Russia, South
Korea and India
– Very few projects in developed countries
> All NPP under construction should be in
operation by 2020
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China is expected to rely strongly on nuclear energy in the future –
40 reactors in construction at the end of 2012
Scenario considered for Greater China
OVERVIEW ON GREATER CHINA CURRENT STATUS
Recent development
> Stress tests following Fukushima: small impact on
projects under construction, delay on planned
reactors
> Taiwan announced a progressive phase out
> 2 new reactors completed in mainland since
Fukushima, adding 1650 MWe to the total capacity
Roland Berger scenarios
> Reactors under construction: delay assumed vs
WNA expected date of completion (2 years in low
scenario, 1 year in high scenario)
> Reactors planned or announced: new estimated
starting date for construction (based on WNA if
available, RB estimates otherwise) + 6 years
estimated to complete construction + delay due to
potential post-Fukushima potential measures (2
years in low scenario, 1 year in high scenario)
CHANGES IN GREATER CHINA INSTALLED
CAPACITY [# reactors]
LOW
100
80
60
822)
88
Operating
96 97 97 96 95 95 94 94 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93
611)
40
20
0
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030
HIGH
84 90
100
80
60
98 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
611)
40
20
0
1) 28 reactors already in construction in May, 12 more started by the end of 2012. 21 reactors operating
Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database
Under construction
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030
2) 2 reactors under construction in Taiwan expected to be cancelled in RB low scenario
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Russia is systematically pursuing its nuclear agenda with a dual
focus on domestic and export markets
Scenario considered for the Russia
OVERVIEW ON RUSSIA CURRENT STATUS
Recent development
> Following Fukushima, authorities announced their
intention to improve security – back-up power and
water supply as main concerns – and to extend the
life of the existing reactors
> Kalinin 4 is operating since November 2011
> Russia is strongly pushing exports in nuclear
energy, with plans in 7 countries at least1)
CHANGES IN RUSSIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]
LOW
Under construction
100
80
60
40
50 50 51 51 51
43 45 46
65
59 59 60 61 63
74
Operating
83 83 83 83
20
0
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030
Roland Berger scenarios
> No delays for reactors under construction
> 2 years delays in low scenario for "planned" or
"announced" reactors
HIGH
100
80
60
40
50 50 51 51 51
43 45 46
65
59 59 60 61 63
74
83 85 85 85
20
0
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030
1) Ukraine, Belarus, India, China, Turkey, VIetnam, Bangladesh
Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database
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India sees strong nuclear development activity with installed
capacity expected to double until 2030
Scenario considered for India
OVERVIEW ON INDIA CURRENT STATUS
Recent development
> India has affirmed plans to boost nuclear capacity to
63 GW by 2032, doubling current capacity in service
by 2015
> 2 reactors entered recently into construction:
Kakrapar 4 and Rajasthan 7 (630 MW each)
> Some delays are expected for reactors under
construction due to public protests (Kudankalam
1&2). All reactors being built in India are potentially
concerned by such delays as India is a democratic
country with strong power given to local authorities
CHANGES IN INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]
LOW
Under construction
80
60
40
27 30 31
36 39
44
50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
20
0
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030
HIGH
80
Roland Berger scenarios
> High: considering delays, about a half of the
reactors under construction or planned enter service
by 2030
> Low: all reactors are somehow delayed
Operating
62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62
60
40
27 30 31
36 39
44
50 49
20
0
2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2030
Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database
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BRICs are also at the forefront regarding SMRs; global market
promises ~40 GW potential for SMRs in 2020-2030
Market potential1)2)3) – selected top markets [GW]
41,1
Desalination
Electricity, heat
2,9
9,2
0,8
14,7
0,7
0,9
1,5
2,3
1,6
2,5
5,5
8,4
14,0
1) Market share in most countries – 10-15% (Russia & Kazakhstan – 50%)
2) Based on opinions of 3 independent experts, IEA, specialized national institutions, UxC, WNA
3) USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia – are also large markets, however were not studied in detail due to "Russian" focus
Source: Roland Berger
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North, North-east and South are most likely areas for SMR in China
Geography of SMR – China
COMMENTS
Harbin
Beijing
Hohhot
Changchun
Shenyang
Dalian
Yinchuan Shijiazhuang
Tianjin
Taiyuan
Qingdao
Xining Lanzhou
Jinan
Jiangsu
Linxia
Nanjing
Xi'an
Hefei
Wuhan Hangzhou Shanghai
Chongqing
Ningbo
Nangchan
Changsha
Guiyang
Fuzhou
Xiamen
Kunming
Nanning
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Haikou
Source: Roland Berger
> North, North-east and South of China
have the largest potential for SMR
> These regions have
– A number of large urban centers –
concentration of consumers
– Lower density of infrastructure
(electric networks, gas pipelines,
railroads, desalination facilities,
cogeneration facilities) – demand for
small / medium capacity units
– Locations with energy tariffs above
average (71 USD / MWh – blue dots)
– SMR can be competitive
– Acceptable seismic and other
requirements
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North-west, Urals, Siberia have the highest potential for SMR in
Russia
Geography of SMR – Russia
COMMENTS
> Most likely areas in Russia
– North-west
– Urals
– Siberia
Murmansk Oblast'
Republic of Karelia
YaNAO
Belgorod
Oblast'
North
Ossetia
MOSCOW
KhMAO
Sverdlovsk Oblast'
Krasnoyarskiy Krai
Republic of
Bashkortostan
Irkutsk Oblast'
Novosibirsk Oblast'
Astrakhan'
Republic of Buryatia
Oblast'
Orenburg Oblast'
Kemerovo Oblast'
Dagestan Republic
Source: Roland Berger
Republic of Khakassia
> Prerequisites
– Vast areas and distance
of industrial centers from
main grid – conductive
for SMR
– Locations with energy
tariffs above average (58
USD / MWh – green
areas) – SMR can be
competitive
– Acceptable seismic and
other requirements
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There is a number of major industrial projects which could be clear
clients for SMR in Russia
Russia – Selected project as potential clients for SMR 2015-2030
COMMENTS
PROJECTS ∼ 2015-2030
Industry
Iron ore mining (Buryaniya)
Gold mine "Peschanka" (Chukotsky region)
Mining
ADDITIONAL
Example
Compensation for power deficit in Belgorod region
Energy
Compensation for power deficit in Kaluga region
Energy
Mining
Diamond field (Yakutiya, Krasnoyarsky region
Mining
Uranium mine, Elkonsky GMK (Yakutiya)
Mining
Source: Roland Berger
> In Russia demand is
expected from
– New industrial clusters
– large power demand,
often away from main
grid, a number of
projects already in the
pipeline
– Large transport
infrastructure projects
– large power demand
– Deficit regions – such
as Belgorod, Kaluga
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There is a number players currently trying to develop an SMR
technology
Various SMR technologies under development [for SMR <350 MW]
SMR
Type
Electric
capacity
Efficiency
Coolant
Non-electric
temperature6) application7)
Fuel cycle
Refuelling
Construction
time
Investments Useful life
CAREM-25
LWR WUP1)
25 MW
23%
325 °C
DS
Open
11 months
60 months
$3500 / kW
60 years
CNP-300
LWR WUP
325 MW
33%
315 °C
-
Open
14 months
72 months
$2800 / kW
40 years
SMART
LWR WUP
100 MW
30%
325 °C
DS
Open
36 months
36 months
$5500 / kW
60 years
SMR 200
LWR WUP
225 MW
28%
n.a.
-
Open
24 months
36 months
n.a.
60 years
nuScale
LWR WUP
45 MW
28%
290 °C
DS + CG
Open
24 months
36 months
$4000 / kW
60 years
mPower
LWR WUP
125 MW
31%
320 °C
-
Open
60 months
36 months
$5200 / kW
60 years
HI-SMUR
LWR WUP
145 MW
31%
305 °C
-
Open
36 months
36 months
$4700 / kW
60 years
AHWR
HWR2)
300 MW
31%
285 °C
DS
Open / closed n.a.
72 months
$3500 / kW
100 years
HTR-PM
HTGCR3)
105 MW
42%
750 °C
-
Open
48 months
$2500 / kW
40 years
GTHTR-300
HTGCR
285 MW
48%
850 °C
DS + CG + H
Open / closed 24 months
48 months
n.a.
60 years
EM2
HTGCR
240 MW
48%
850 °C
CG
Open
60 months
n.a.
60 years
SVBR-100
FNR LB4)
100 MW
36%
480 °C
DS + CG + H
Open / closed 84 months
36-48 mnths
$4500 / kW
60 years
Hyperion
FNR LB
25 MW
36%
500 °C
DS + CG + H
Open
120 months
48 months
n.a.
60 years
PRISM
FNR N5)
310 MW
37%
500 °C
-
Closed
24 months
48 months
n.a.
60 years
4S
FNR N
10 MW
33%
355 °C
DS + CG + H
Open
360 months
36 months
n.a.
30 years
n.a.
360 months
1) Light Water Reactors with Water Under Pressure 2) Heavy Water Reactors 3) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors 4) Fast Neutron Reactor with lead-bismuth coolant
5) Fast Neutron Reactor with natrium coolant 6) At the exit of active zone 7) CG – cogeneration; DS - desalination; H – production of hydrogen
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Russian SMR is likely to be among the first on the market –
reference project scheduled for 2016-2018
SMR development plans [for SMR <350 MW]
COMMENTS
SMR projects
GENERATION III
LWR with WUP1)
CNP-300 (China)
CAREM-25 (Argentina)
SMART (S. Korea)
SMR 200, nuScale, mPower (USA)
HI-SMUR (USA)
HWR2)
AHWR (India)
GENERATION IV
HTGCR3)
HTR-PM (China)
GTHTR-300 (Japan), EM2 (USA)
FNR with LB4)
SVBR-100 (Russia)
Hyperion (USA)
FNR with N5)
PRISM (USA), 4S (Japan)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
> Advantages of Generation SMR IV
– High passive safety
– Advanced technical/economic
parameters (Gen III show only
minor improvement against their
"large brothers")
> Most Generation IV are not
expected until 2020 – except
Russian project
> Russian project could be interested
to find a partner for joint promotion
on the international markets
Project start
Construction of reference project
Licensing
Commercial orders / projects
1) Light Water Reactors with Water Under Pressure 2) Heavy Water Reactors 3) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors 4) Fast Neutron Reactor with lead-bismuth coolant
5) Fast Neutron Reactor with natrium coolant 6) Exceptions – CNP-300 (2 units in Pakistan) and HTR-PM (up to 18 units х 210 MW in China)
Source: Roland Berger
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Financing risks and requirements are substantial; solutions need to
include a wide spectre of instruments and contributions
Nuclear projects carry a unique financial risk profile – sheer project volume, long
investment periods, widespread overruns of time and financial budgets, market uncertainty,
political discontinuity, financial capacity and solidity of host countries
Financial risks are particularly severe for private sector nuclear players (financing capacity,
credit rating), and for all investments "abroad"
Financing solutions 1 – project volume and long investment periods: building of
consortia (one operator, 4-6 co-investors – strategic and financial), mergers & acquisitions,
government incentives during construction phase or upon commissioning (example: US
renewables): tax credits, free CO2 certificate allocation, capacity payments
Financing solutions 2 – market uncertainty and political discontinuity: capacity
payments, fixed power tariffs, debt/mezzanine financing with success-based interest rates,
substantial financial commitment of host countries (state, institutions, private investors)
Financial solutions 3 – financial capacity and solidity of host countries: nuclear portfolio
diversification, guarantees by international institutions, limited liability constructs
Source: Roland Berger
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