Higher Education Commission

Global Developments on Nuclear Electric Power Technology & Pakistan Economic Uplift Research & Development Human Resource Development Dr. Javaid R. Laghari Chairperson Higher Education Commission

Electric Power

• • • • Pakistan has an installed capacity of around 19,500 MW Energy mix: gas, 48%; hydroelectric, 33%; oil, 16%; nuclear 2%; and coal, 0.2% Supply drastically low for a multitude of reasons leading to intense load-shedding Demand rising at 1,500 MW per year.

Government has not been able to catch up using conventional means

Bottlenecks in producing power

• • • • • • Revolving credit Gas shortages Reduced water in reservoirs due to climate change Dependence on imported oil Mining of coal Alternate energy (wind, solar) not caught up locally yet

Sustainable energy source: nuclear

    15% of the world’s electricity today is produced by nuclear power 31 countries, 440 nuclear power reactors, 378,000 MW Nuclear power capacity worldwide will increase to 450,000 MW by 2020, and between 546,000 to 800,000 MW by 2050 60 reactors are currently under construction in 16 countries

Nuclear electric power in the world (few examples)

    80% in France with 58 reactors 28% in Japan with 50 reactors (largest in world, at 8,212 MW with 7 reactors since 1997) 28% in South Korea with 21 reactors 23% in the UK with 19 reactors   20% in the US with 104 reactors (US leads the world with 101,000 MW) 18% in Russia with 32 reactors

Chinese nuclear power

    Currently 10,200 MW, 14 reactors, Expanding to 70,000 MWs by 2020 (26 reactors under construction), 200 GW by 2030, and 400 GW by 2050 The Chinese with ‘improved technology’ and ‘low-cost labour’ have significantly lowered the cost of building nuclear power plants For the 1,700 MW, the largest in the world, to begin at Taishan in 2013 and complete by 2017, the cost will be of the order of $1,000/KW, comparable to thermal power plants!

Indian nuclear electric power

   21 reactors producing over 7000 MW (950 MW commissioned in 2012) 5 under construction Increase to 64,000 MW by 2032 (9% of electricity by nuclear power)

Oil rich countries and nuclear electric power

   UAE has signed a $20 billion agreement with South Korea to build 4x1, 400 MW of nuclear power plants by 2020 Iran’s first 1,000-MW at Bushehr completed last year Iran plans to build 19 more reactors

Pakistan nuclear electric power

     Pakistan produces dismally low 750 MW (including the outdated Kanupp (100 MW), and Chashnupp 1 and 2 (325 MW each) Plan to add 10 reactors to increase power to 8800 MW by 2030 Pakistan is technologically advanced in its nuclear capabilities and has an indigenous supply of fuel as well Can easily improve on its reactor design to make it commercially viable Limitations: Pakistan is outside the NPT, therefore it is largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders the development of its civil nuclear energy

Concerns

on nuclear energy

  

Disposal of spent fuel

Acts of terrorism

Possible accidents Solutions exist to all three above in modern reactor design

Outsourcing for Peace

  Europeans, Chinese, and South Koreans are outsourcing their nuclear technology The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement signed in 2005 will enable India to become a nuclear reactor exporter soon, according to a US Congressional Report July 2011.

  According to World Nuclear Association, India is already offering its indigenous 220 and 540 MW reactor design for export It is also following a human-resource-development strategy in providing trained manpower for the nuclear industry.

Pakistan should not leave this field uncontested and should enter the nuclear energy market (in collaboration with partners) by improving on its reactor design

New Sustainable Clean Technologies

      Nuclear Fusion, called the energy of the stars Scientists from US, China, the EU, India, Japan, Russia and South Korea are collaborating to build the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the world’s largest and most advanced Tokomak fusion nuclear reactor at France ITER being designed to produce 500MW of output power for 50MW of input power by 2019 Following its success, construction of DEMO will demonstrate sustained net energy on commercial scale The National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL on March 15, 2012 using laser-based inertial confinement fusion and established the record-breaking energy output of 1.875 MJ from 192 lasers, bringing fusion energy, and therefore a clean alternative power source, closer to reality Researchers at the University of Bologna in January 2011 demonstrated cold fusion, a claim yet to be verified

The Future

   Pakistan should not remain behind in the peaceful nuclear field when the world is rapidly moving forward We should continue to explore and develop new technologies for power application HEC will assist in providing all scientific manpower, state of art equipment and research funding to make this dream a reality for Pakistan

Thank you