Slide 1

Transcript Slide 1

Dr Paul Jelfs

Assistant Statistician Social Analysis and Reporting

Australian Social Trends

2008 seminar, Melbourne 9 September 2008

The Australian, 24 July The Herald-Sun, 24 July The Age, 24 July The Herald-Sun, 24 July The Australian Financial Review, 24 July The Canberra Times, 24 July The Courier Mail, 24 July The Australian, 24 July

Today's seminar

Population Family and community Health Education and training Work Economic resources Housing Other areas of concern

Population



Population distribution

…by Remoteness Areas …change 1996-2006 

Towns of the mineral boom

…which towns?

…socio-demographic changes

Remoteness Areas and population distribution at 30 June 2006 Source: ABS preliminary Estimated Resident Population

Population change 1996 –2006(a) 2 1.5

1 % 0.5

0 -0.5

-1 Major Cities Inner Regional Outer Regional Remote Very Remote (a) Average annual growth rate Source: ABS preliminary Estimated Resident Population

Population change in States and Territories 2.5

1996 –2006(a) 2 % 1.5

1 0.5

0 Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT (a) Average annual growth rate Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population

Interstate Migration Highest Average Interstate Migration Lowest Average Interstate Migration -10 -20 -30 40 10 0 30 20

Qld

40 30 20 -40 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Source:

Australian Demographic Statistics

WA NT Vic

10 0 -10 -20

ACT Tas SA

-30 -40 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year

NSW

Towns of the mineral boom  Rapid population growth  High proportion employed in mining

Population of boom towns Dysart (Qld) Moranbah (Qld) Blackwater (Qld) Middlemount (Qld) Tieri (Qld) Emerald (Qld) Moura (Qld) Paraburdoo (WA) Dampier (WA) Newman (WA) Karratha (WA) Roxby Downs (SA) 0 2 4 6 '000 8 10 12 14 Source: 2001 and 2006 ABS Censuses of Population and Housing 2001 2006

Population growth in boom towns 2001-2006 Dysart (Qld) Moranbah (Qld) Blackwater (Qld) Middlemount (Qld) Tieri (Qld) Emerald (Qld) Moura (Qld) Paraburdoo (WA) Dampier (WA) Newman (WA) Karratha (WA) Roxby Downs (SA) Australia 0 1 2 3 4 % 5 Source: 2001 and 2006 ABS Censuses of Population and Housing; Australian Demographic Statistics 6 7 8 9 Census-enumerated Estimated resident

Male:female ratios in boom towns Dysart (Qld) Moranbah (Qld) Blackwater (Qld) Middlemount (Qld) Tieri (Qld) Emerald (Qld) Moura (Qld) Paraburdoo (WA) Dampier (WA) Newman (WA) Karratha (WA) Roxby Downs (SA) Australia Source: 2001 and 2006 ABS Censuses of Population and Housing 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Males per 100 females 200 2001 2006

Income of full-time workers in boom towns Dysart (Qld) Moranbah (Qld) Blackwater (Qld) Middlemount (Qld) Tieri (Qld) Emerald (Qld) Moura (Qld) Paraburdoo (WA) Dampier (WA) Newman (WA) Karratha (WA) Roxby Downs (SA) Australia 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2001 2006 $ real m edian weekly incom e Source: 2001 and 2006 ABS Censuses of Population and Housing;

Consumer Price Index, Australia

Family and Community

 Voluntary work …increase in voluntary work …who is volunteering regularly?

…what type of volunteering are they doing?

Volunteering rates 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 1995 2000 Year Source: ABS 2006 Voluntary Work Survey 2006 Males Females

Volunteering rates: States and Territories Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 1995 2006 0 5 10 20 15 25 % Persons 30 35 40 45 Source: ABS 2006 Voluntary Work Survey

Regular volunteering by age and sex 2006 35 30 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 18-24 35-44 55-64 25-34 45-54 Age group (years ) 65-74 75+ Males Females Source: ABS 2006 Voluntary Work Survey

Regular volunteering by age 2006 30 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 18-24 35-44 55-64 25-34 45-54 Age group (years ) 65-74 Source: ABS 2006 Voluntary Work Survey 75+ Vic Aus

Regular volunteers by type of organisation 2006 Sport & physical recreation Education & training Community/welfare Relig ious Parenting , children & youth Emerg ency services Arts/heritag e Health Environment/animal welfare Other 0 10 20 30 % Source: ABS 2006 Voluntary Work Survey 40 50 60 Mal es Femal es

Health

 Risk taking by young people … alcohol, drugs & dangerous driving …hospitalisation & death  Complementary therapies … have become more common …who are they & who is seeing them?

Risk taking by young people Short term risky/high risk drinking at least once a week 2004 –05 % 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 18-24 25+ Age group (years) Source: ABS 2004 –05 National Health Survey Males Females

Short term risky/high risk drinking at least once a week 2004 –05 Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT(a) ACT 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 % (a) Data are not available for the Northern Territory Source: ABS 2004 –05 National Health Survey 18-24 25+

1000 Dangerous driving related offences 2006 –07 900 800 700 600 500 400 300

–

Exceeding the legal alcohol limit

–

Driving under the influence

–

Dangerous or negligent driving

–

Speeding 200 100 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ Source: ABS Criminal Courts Collection

Alcohol and drug-related hospitalisations 2005 –06 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 Age group (y ears) 70+ Source: AIHW Hospital Morbidity Database

– – –

Males, drug use Females, drug use Males, acute alcohol intoxication

–

Females, acute alcohol intoxication

Transport accident deaths (15-24 years) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1977-1979 1974-1976 1983-1985 1980-1982 1989-1991 1986-1988 1995-1997 1992-1994 2001-2003 1998-2000 2004-2006 Year of registration Source: ABS Causes of Death collection Vic - males Vic - f emales Vic - persons Aus - males Aus - f emales Aus - persons

Complementary therapies  Number of complementary therapists is small but growing quickly, from 4,787 in 1996 to 8,595 in 2006.

 Fastest growing occupation group is osteopaths  Leading occupation groups are naturopaths and chiropractors

Complementary therapists 3,000 2,000 1996 2006 1,000 0 Chiropractor Source: 1996 & 2006 Censuses of Population and Housing Naturopath Acupuncturist Osteopath

Characteristics of therapists 2006 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Osteopath Chiropractor Homeopath Acupuncturist Naturopath Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing Female Employed part-time

Visits to therapists (last two weeks) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150     1995 2004-05 Referral patterns Now covered by health funds Acceptance of effectiveness Higher disposable income 100 50 0 Chiropractor Acupuncturist Naturopath Osteopath Herbalist Source: ABS 1995 and 2004 –05 National Health Surveys

Users of complementary therapists 2004 –05 % 3 2 1 6 5 4 0 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 Age group (years) Source: ABS 2004 –05 National Health Survey 75+

Education

 Education across Australia …school retention rates …non-school qualifications

70 Proportion of Australians with a non-school qualification (Ages 25-64) 60 50 40 % 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Source: ABS 1990-2006 Survey of Education and Work

–

Total with a non-school qualification

–

Advanced diploma and diploma or below

–

Bachelor degree or above

Non-school qualification by Area (Ages 25-64) Major Cities Inner Regional Outer Regional Remote Very Remote 0 10 20 30 % % Source: ABS 1996 and 2006 Censuses of Population and Housing 40 50 60 1996 2006

People aged 25 –64 years with non-school qualifications: States and Territories Vic NSW Qld WA SA Tas NT(a) ACT Aus 0 10 (a) Refers to mainly urban areas only Source: ABS Survey of Education and Work 20 30 % 40 50 60 70 80 1997 2007

Year 7/8 to year 12 retention rates 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 % 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 Aus Vic 30 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Source: National Schools Statistics Collection

Year 7/8 to year 12 retention rates 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 % 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 Aus NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Vic 30 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Source: National Schools Statistics Collection

Year 7/8 to year 12 retention rates: by sex, 2007 Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 0 40 20 60 % Source: National Schools Statistics Collection 80 100 Males Females

Education participation rate (Ages 15-24) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 1997 1998 1999 Aus Vic 2000 2001 2002 Year Source: ABS Survey of Education and Work 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Education participation rate (Ages 15-24) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 1997 1998 1999 Aus NSW Vic SA WA Tas NT ACT Qld 2000 2001 2002 Year 2003 2004 2005 Source: ABS Survey of Education and Work 2006 2007

Work

 Labour force participation across Australia … sex and age …part-time and full-time employment  Trade union members … sex and age …industry type

Labour force participation rate by sex 80 70 % 60 50 40 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 as at June Source: ABS Labour Force Survey Males aged 15 years and over Females aged 15 years and over

Employment trends for people aged 15 –64 years ..as a proportion of total employment 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 1989 1988 1991 1990 1993 1992 1995 1994 1997 1996 1999 1998 2001 2000 2003 2002 2005 2004 2007 2006 2008 Year as at June Employed full-time Employed part-time Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

Labour force participation rate by age and sex 2008 100 90 Males Females 80 70 % 60 50 40 30 20 15–19 20–24 25–34 35–44 Age group 45–54 55–59 60–64 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

Labour force participation of people aged 55 –64 years % 40 30 20 10 0 70 60 50 1988 1998 2008 Males Females Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

Labour force participation rate: States and Territories, people aged 15-64 years Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 40 50 60 % as at June 70 80 90 1998 2008 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey

Trade union membership Unionisation rates by sex 50 45 Males Females 40 35 % 30 25 20 15 10 1986 1990 1993 1995 1997 Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source:

Trade Union Members, Australia, August 1986, Employee Earnings, Benefits and Trade Union Membership, Australia, August 2007

Trade union membership Unionisation rates by age 60 50 40 % 30 20 1986 2007 10 0 15–24 25–34 35–44 Age group 45–54 55 and over Source: 1986 Survey of Trade Union Members and 2007 Survey of Employee Earnings, Benefits and Trade Union Membership

Unionisation rates: States and Territories Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 0 10 20 30 % 40 50 Source:

Trade Union Members, Australia, August 1986, Employee Earnings, Benefits and Trade Union Membership, Australia, August 2007

60 1986 2007

Unionisation rates by selected industry 1997 to 2007 Electricity, gas and water supply Communication services Education Manufacturing Mining Health and community services 0 10 20 30 % 40 50 Source: 1997 Survey of Weekly Earnings of Employees and 2007 Survey of Employee Earnings, Benefits and Trade Union Membership 60 1997 2007 70

The number of industrial disputes have also declined 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1988 1987 1990 1989 1992 1991 1994 1993 1996 1995 1998 1997 2000 1999 2002 2001 2004 2003 2006 2005 2007 Year Source: Industrial Disputes, Australia,Dec 2007 ...from 1,519 in 1987 to 135 in 2007

Economic Resources

 Government benefits, taxes and household income …on household type  Women's incomes …change over time

Real net national disposable income per person(a) 40000 38000 36000 $ 34000 32000 30000 28000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Financial year ending 30 June (a) Chain volume measure, reference year 2005-06 Source: Australian System of National Accounts 2004 2005 2006 2007

Household income Mean weekly equivalised household income by income groups 1400 1200 1000 $ 800 600 400 200 1997 1998 2000 2001 Year 2003 2004 2006 Low income Middle income High income Source: ABS Survey of Income and Housing

Household income: States and Territories 2005 –06 Mean weekly equivalised household income for all households Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 200 300 400 500 $ 600 700 800 900 Source: ABS 2005 –06 Survey of Income and Housing

Government taxes and benefits

...

redistribute economic resources from people with

higher private incomes

to those with

lower private incomes Final income =

Private income + Govt cash benefits – income tax + social transfers in kind – taxes on production

Private income:

all forms of income except govt cash benefits.

Govt cash benefits:

mainly pensions & allowances, family payments, baby bonus, rent assistance etc.

Social transfers in kind:

include the value of goods & services provided or subsidised by govt. e.g. schooling, Medicare services, child care.

Taxes on production:

intermediate taxes that producers pay in process of production and are passed on to consumers + GST and excise

From private to final income 2003 –04(a) 2500 2000 1500 $ 1000 500 Private income Gross income Disposable income Final income 0 Low est Second Third Equivalised private income quintiles (a) Average weekly value Source:

Government Benefits, Taxes and Household Income, Australia, 2003 –04

Fourth Highest

Net effect of taxes and benefits on the household income of selected life course groups 2003 –04(a) Lone person <35 Couples only, ref person <35 Couple with dep children (eldest 0-4) Couple with dep children (eldest 5-14) Couple with dep children (eldest 15-24) Couple with dependent & non-dep children Couple with non-dep children Couple only, ref person 55-64 Couple only, ref person 65+ Lone person 65+ All households -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 $ (a) Average weekly value Source:

Government Benefits, Taxes and Household Income, Australia, 2003-04

0 100 200 300 400 500

Proportion of men and women in gross personal income quintiles 1982 35 30 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 Lowest Source: Surveys of Income and Housing Second Third Income quintile Fourth Highest Women Men

Proportion of men and women in gross personal income quintiles 1995 –96 % 20 15 10 5 0 35 30 25 Lowest Source: Surveys of Income and Housing Second Third Income quintile Fourth Highest Women Men

Proportion of men and women in gross personal income quintiles 2005 –06 % 20 15 10 5 0 35 30 25 Lowest Source: Surveys of Income and Housing Second Third Income quintile Fourth Highest Women Men

Housing

 Renter Households … renting versus home ownership  First home buyers … rising cost of home loans

Proportion of households renting 1995-96 to 2005-06 30 25 20 % 15 10 Total renters(a) Private renters State/territory housing authority 5 0 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Year (a) Includes households renting from other landlords Source: ABS Surveys of Income and Housing 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-08 2005-06

Proportion of households renting 1995 –96 and 2005–06

Victoria 30 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 1995–96 Source: ABS Surveys of Income and Housing 2005–06 Private landlord State/territory housing authority Other landlord

1200 Mean weekly housing costs and disposable household income after housing costs PRIVATE RENTER Weekly housing costs Weekly disposable income af ter hous ing costs 1200 OWNER WITH A MORTGAGE Weekly housing costs Weekly disposable income af ter hous ing costs 1000 1000 800 $ 600 $ 800 600 400 400 200 200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Financial year ended Source: ABS Surveys of Income and Housing 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Financial year ended

First home buyers

During the year to March 2008 there were

135,000

housing finance commitments to first home buyers...

...equivalent to 6.4 commitments per 1,000 people Between 1991 and 2008 average home loan commitments to first home buyers increased...

... from

$96,100

$215,000

Annual housing finance commitments to first home buyers(a) 8 Period in which FHBs were eligible for the additional grant on top of FHOG (March 01 to June 02) 7 6 5 Introduction of the FHOG (July 2000) 4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year ending March 2007 2008 (a) From significant lenders for owner occupation, excluding alterations and additions Source:

Housing Finance Australia, Australia, April 2008, Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2007

Average real housing loan commitment to first home buyers $240 $220 $200 000s $180 $160 average housing loan commitment (LHS) standard variable interest rate (RHS) $140 $120 $100 Sep-95 Sep-97 Sep-99 Source: ABS Housing finance, Australia, RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables Sep-01 Sep-03 Sep-05 6 5 Sep-07 4 8 7 11 10 9

Real change in the size of an average housing loan(a) to a first home buyer Vic NSW Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 0 50 100 150 $'000 (a) From significant lenders for owner occupation, excluding alterations and additions Source: Housing Finance, Australia, April 2008; Consumer Price Index, Australia, March Quarter 2008 200 250 July 1991 March 2008

Other Areas of Social Concern

 Internet access at home … increase in Internet connections  Public transport use … over time … in Australian cities

Proportion of Australian households with access to the Internet % 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1998 Vic Aus 1999 2000 Source: Household Use of Information Technology, Australia 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007

Proportion of Australian households with access to the Internet % 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1998 Vic Qld NSW Tas Aus 1999 2000 Source: Household Use of Information Technology, Australia 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007

Internet use by education and income 2006 100 % 40 30 20 10 90 80 70 60 50 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Household income quintile Source: 2006 Census of Population and Housing Q4 Q5 No non-school qual Certificate Diploma/Advanced diploma Bachelor degree or higher

50 Proportion of households with dial-up or Broadband Internet connection 40 30 % 20 10 0 2004-05 2005-06 Year Source:

Household Use of Information Technology, Australia, 2006-07

2006-07 Broadband connection Dial-up connection

Type of Internet access: State and Territory 2006 80 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 Vic NSW Qld Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing Broadband Other Internet SA WA Tas NT ACT

Proportion of passenger-kms travelled by motorised vehicle type: capital cities – 1945 to 2007 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Public transport Other motor vehicles 30 20 10 0 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Year Source: Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE), 2007,

Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities

Proportion of adults using public transport for their usual trip to work or study ...percentage change between 1996 & 2006 10 % 0 -10 -20 40 30 20 -30 -40 Melbourne Sydney Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Canberra Australia Source: ABS 1996 Environment Survey and ABS 2006 Household Survey of Waste Management and Transport Use

People using public transport as main form of transport for usual trip to work or study(a) in capital cities(b) 40 MALES 40 FEMALES 35 35 30 30 25 25 % 20 15 1996 2006 % 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 Age Group (Years) (a) As a proportion of the total number of persons in each age group (b) Excludes Darwin 55+ 0 18-24 Source

ABS 2006 Household Survey of Waste Management and Transport Use and ABS 1996 Environment Survey 25-34 35-44 45-54 Age Group (Years) 55+

Coming soon...

 AST review …frequency of release …format  AST 2009 …unpaid housework …superannuation …homelessness

What have we missed?

Further information



www.abs.gov.au

Australian Social Trends

ABS catalogue number 4102.0



Dr Paul Jelfs

[email protected]

Phone: (02) 6252 6690 

Linda Fardell