Transcript MODEL VERIFICATION

Portable HRM Station Value
Verification Package “ORMVERIF”
Sultan Salim AL-Yahyai
Fauzi Bader Al-Busaidi
Khalid Khamis Al-Jahwari
Directorate General of Civil Aviation
and Meteorology,
Sultanate of Oman
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Location of Oman
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Aim of the Project

TO EVALUATE THE FORECASTS OF OMAN REGIONAL MODEL (ORM).
Try To TUNE
THE MODEL
MONITORING THE
BEHAVIOR OF
THE MODELS
HIGHLIGHTS THE
STRENTHS &
WEAKMESSES
OF THE MODELS
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Design Issues

Stations Grouping

Station with similar topographical features
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Costal Station
Actual Station height – model grid point height <= X m
Verification Scheme

Most representative Grid
Point.

Interpolation of the
surrounding Grid Points
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Design Issues

Elements to be verified
Continuous Elements






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T 2m ( C )
Max temp. 2m ( C )
Min Temp. 2m ( C )
TD 2m ( C )
MSL Pressure (hPa)
FF 10m ( knots )
DD 10m (degrees).
Categorical Elements

Total Presp.
 Amount of low clouds
 DPD
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Design Issues
Forecast
Range to be verified
72h fct
60h fct
48h fct
36h fct
24h fct
12h fct
0h fct
Model run
utc
00
day
A-3
12
A-3
OBS
00
12
00
12
00
A-2
A-2
A-1
A-1
A
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Design Issues

OBS Quality Control
1) Elements value thresholds
2) Comparing OBS with model first guess
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France
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Design Issues
Statistics
to be used
Categorical Elements
Continuous Elements

Hit rate with a margin of error
 Bias
 Root Mean Squared Error
(RMSE):
OBS
Yes
FCT
No
Yes
a
b
No
c
d
Hit rate
Probability of
detection(POD)
False Alarm Rate (FAR)
Threat Score (TS)
Frequecy bias(FB)
Heidke Skill Score ( HSS )
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Implementation
MSS
OBS
ormverif
MOS
DMO (FCT)
Windows
based
NWP machine
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Main Menu
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France
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Averaging Data Plotter
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Table Viewer
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France
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Future Work

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Implementing the Interpolation verif. Schema
Superimposing the Results of the verif. For more than
one model
Verifying the upper levels data
Verifying the Wave Model
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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ORMVERIF Availability

Package available on request for WMO members:

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Brazilian navy, UAE Met., Vietnam met., malaysia met.
User Manual
Tech. Documentation
WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse,
France
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Thank You
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France
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