Transcript BROAD STREET PARKWAY

BROAD STREET PARKWAY
BENEFITS ANALYSIS
METHODOLOGY
Purpose of this Workshop
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To describe methods used in benefits analyses
and to discuss the inputs, assumptions, metrics
and potential benefits;
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To perform a preliminary economic benefit
assessment to help determine whether members
of the Board of Aldermen have sufficient
information to proceed on R-08-111;
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To discuss if the city wants or needs to proceed
on a comprehensive economic benefits analysis
Benefit Analysis Methodology
A benefit analysis forecasts and estimates all
the public dividends and advantages of a
project to the community.
The benefits are computed and expressed in
terms of dollars of a particular time.
Benefit Analysis Models
For a transportation improvement like the
Broad Street Parkway, there are a variety of
models available to assess a range of travel,
economic, and environmental benefits that
would result from its construction.
Broad Range of Benefits
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Travel Benefits - like:
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Economic Benefits
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Reduced trip times
Less congestion & improved access
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Improved freight movement
Sales and workforce efficiencies
Environmental Benefits - like:
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Improvement in air quality (VOCs & NO2)
Reductions in greenhouse gasses (CO2)
Benefit Analysis Models
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ITS Deployment and Analysis System (IDAS) analyzes
travel impacts, user benefits, infrastructure improvements, and
other social benefits
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Net_BC is a benefit-cost model that computes benefits like
time savings, operating cost savings, and accident reductions
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Highway Development and Management Tools (HDM-4)
developed by the World Bank estimates road user benefits
including accidents, energy, and emissions
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StratBENCOST is a benefit-cost model that computes
benefit-cost measures based on user-input traffic
characteristics, project costs, and growth factors
Benefit Analysis – Dual Approach
Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model
(STEAM) developed by the Federal Highway Administration
is first used to compute system wide user benefits including
travel time savings, vehicle operating costs, and accident costs
calculated for both freight and passenger traffic.
The overall economic benefits to the region were then
estimated using the REMI Model developed by Regional
Economic Models, Inc. The output of the REMI model was
used to identify overall impacts on employment, output, and
personal income based on the region's travel demand model.
Benefit Analysis – Full Service
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
They employ a system called TREDIS:
“Transportation Economic Development Impact System”
“For any of its applications, TREDIS can be used either as a
comprehensive planning tool or as a back-of-the-envelope
sketch planning tool. The level of sophistication is up to the
user, but projects can be set up and run in as little as fifteen
minutes. More complex and comprehensive projects might
take several hours to prepare.”
Benefit Analysis – Disclaimer
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Some of these benefits will be more difficult to
quantify than others… no matter the model used
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The more complicated and detailed the benefit
analysis, the more it will cost and the more time it
will take
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The scope of the exercise also can be very broad and
expansive… the only limiting factor is the client
The 1st Step in the Process
No Matter the Method
Consensus on the inputs, assumptions,
metrics, potential benefits, etc.
POSSIBLE BENEFITS
of the
BROAD STREET PARKWAY
Possible BSP Benefits
Travel Related Benefits
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Reduced trip time in Nashua’s core area
Reduced traffic congestion resulting in greater fuel economy
Reduced vehicle maintenance costs
Improved access into the Millyard
Improved access into the Downtown
Improved access into the “Tree Streets” neighborhood
An alternative Nashua River crossing
Other possible benefits?
Quantifying Travel Benefits
Reduced Travel Time in Nashua’s Core Area
With the Broad Street Parkway in place:
Average travel time from FEE Exit 7 to the corner of Main &
Hollis Streets via Amherst Street reduced 39%
Average travel time from FEE Exit 6 to the corner of Main &
Hollis Streets via Broad & Amherst Street reduced 39%
Source: 2025 traffic forecasts from NRPC’s Travel Demand Model
Quantifying Travel Benefits
Total travel time savings = 1,233 vehicle hours/day
@1.125 persons per vehicle = 1,387 person hours/day
Which = 291,296 person hours/year
Dollar value/hour of travel time is estimated @ 60%
median hourly wage (.6 x $25 = $15)
Dollar value of travel time = $20,805 / day
= $4,369,440 / year
Quantifying Travel Benefits
Reduced Spending for Fuel
Total travel time savings = 1,233 vehicle hours / day
Based on an average urban travel speed of 28.3 mph
= total reduction of 34,893 miles / day
At an average 20 mpg = reduction 1745 gal / day
At $3.50 / gal = $1,282,317 savings / year
At $4.00 / gal = $1,465,800 savings / year
At $4.50 / gal = $1,649,025 savings / year
Environmental Benefits
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Nashua a non-attainment area for ground level ozone
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Transportation improvements must reduce VOCs & NO2
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NRPC’s model predicts 403.83 kg/yr reduction
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EPA air quality model for health effects
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Incidence of respiratory ailments
Mortality rates among high risk groups
What are the economic implications?
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Reduced overall medical expenditures
Business Opportunities
Improved Access into the Millyard
Major properties:
10-88 Technology Way (Spilios)
1 Chestnut Street (Tichnor)
99 Factory Street (Picker)
100 Factory Street (Caro)
0 Pine Street (Bagshaw)
1C Pine St. and 5 Pine St Extension (Bonnette)
NIMCO’s, PSNH’s & City’s 5 Parcels
Others on Pine, Factory, Palm, Central & W. Hollis
Greatest development potential is on Nashua’s own
6-7 acres
Business Opportunities
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Studies have shown that transportation investments
induced businesses to locate in areas served
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Studies have shown that business costs typically
decrease when highway capital stock improves
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But, can the city demand a commitment?
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Can there ever be guarantees?
Redevelopment Opportunities
Improved Access to Downtown
Traffic forecasts from NRPC’s Travel Demand Model
Main St: 46,768 vs. 34,417
Amherst St. east of Broad St: 32,183 vs. 24,078
Amherst St. west of Main St: 26,886 vs. 21,614
What about the Main Street Bridge?
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Built in 1925… no work on substructure or superstructure
Rebuilding could take more than one year
No room for a temporary bridge… Main Street narrowed or closed
What would be the economic impact on Downtown?
What would the traffic impact on core city neighborhoods?
Other Infrastructure “Savings”
The Bridges at Baldwin and Fairmont Streets
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City owned (NH DOT purchased from RR)
Substandard and in need of replacement
$2.1 m for Baldwin + $1.6 m for Fairmont
The Millyard Smokestack
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What would it cost to rehabilitate?
What would it cost to demolish and remove?
Pavement Wear on Broad, Amherst, Main St.
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What savings would be accrued?
Emergency Preparedness
“The question of building the parkway has been
debated, studied and analyzed fiscally, environmentally
and structurally. But, what if disaster strikes? How
prepared are our inner city and downtown for an
evacuation?”
“It doesn't have to be an event of epic proportions. It
could be as simple as the bridge at the north end of
Main Street becoming temporarily impassable.
Emergency vehicles trying to access our inner city
during such an incident could be forced to turn around,
backtrack and find an alternative route from a southern
access point, losing precious minutes.”
President / CEO of St. Joseph Hospital & Director of Rockingham Ambulance
Op-Ed “Another Viewpoint” Sunday Telegraph 8/10/08
Tally of Possible Benefits
Recurring Economic Benefits
• Reduced Travel Time
($4.4 m / yr)
• Reduced Fuel Spending (1.6 m / yr)
One-Time Savings
• Baldwin & Fairmont Bridges ($3.7 m)
• Millyard Smokestack ($1 m)
Other Potential Benefits
• Development of the City’s Millyard Parcels
• Emergency Preparedness and Response Times
• Main Street Bridge & Downtown Business
• Reduced Medical Expenditures
• Repavement Savings on Core City Streets
• Increased Assessments on Millyard area Buildings
• Redevelopment in Pine / Central / W Hollis / west Downtown areas
Attracting Business Investment
National survey of over 9000 businesses on most
important factors in investment decisions:
After workforce, the next two most important
were adequate infrastructure and a public
environment conducive to business expansion.
“We prefer to invest in communities that have a
proven record of investing in themselves.”
- NAIOP Member