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Testing the Big Idea Decision Making by the book Decision making is both science and art. Many aspects of military operations movement rates, fuel consumption, weapons effects - are quantifiable and, therefore, part of the science of war. Other aspects - the impact of leadership, complexity of operations, and uncertainty regarding enemy intentions - belong to the art of war. • US Army Field Manual FM101-5, Staff Organization And Operations, 1997, Chapter 5 Time Appreciation Have you got the time to do this thoroughly? • • • • Urgency Scope People Resources Idea Test 1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change 3. First filter - test the Hypothesis 4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal 5. Optimise the value of the Goal 6. Second filter - test the Goal 7. Plan to realise the Ends 8. Third filter - test the Goal Start with the end in mind Why did Nelson fight at Trafalgar? A) Destroy the French fleet and remove the threat of invasion B) Use up the old gunpowder before its sell-by date C) Impress Lady Hamilton It’s not only what you do, it’s also why you choose to do it Answer: A (if you didn’t pick A you are not taking this seriously) Endgame • The game ends when: a) You are checkmated, or b) My King is in g3, my Queen is in c5, etc…. Idea Test 1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change 3. First filter - test the Hypothesis 4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal 5. Optimise the value of the Goal 6. Second filter - test the Goal 7. Plan to realise the Ends 8. Third filter - test the Goal What is a benefit? • • • • • Improve Increase Reduce Eliminate Stop The measurable improvement resulting from an outcome perceived as an advantage by one or more stakeholders, which contributes towards one or more organisational objective(s). APMG Managing Benefits 2012 A benefit is a result that a stakeholder perceives to be of value. Features, Outcomes and Benefits • Feature - my car is painted ‘Police Car’ white • Outcome - people move over for me on the motorway so I get home for 6 pm • Benefit - I get to watch The Simpsons on TV Picking the right benefits Tactical benefits – getting the donkey to move Picking the right benefits Strategic benefits – a cart full of valuable cargo Key stakeholders’ benefits POWER, CONTROL! LOOT, DRINK! Same project, different intentions Stakeholder Analysis •Who are the key stakeholders? •What will they gain/lose? •What impact will they have upon your objectives? Benefits Dependency Means – what you use Ways – what you do Ends – What you want This is manageable This is not Idea Test 1. Set the scene 2. Choose to change 3. First filter - test the Hypothesis 4. Turn the Hypothesis into a Goal 5. Optimise the value of the Goal 6. Second filter - test the Goal 7. Plan to realise the Ends 8. Third filter - test the Goal Pre-Mortem A way to assess your risks • Set the scene, “It’s a year from now, we ran the project and it all went wrong”. • Describe how and why it went wrong • See what you can do now to prevent this happening. Original idea by Gary Klein, quoted in Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman David Waller [email protected] 07780 533876 www.keldale.com www.goalmodelling.com www.hivemindnetwork.com