Transcript Training

Manajemen Keuangan Menengah
Tinjauan Teoritis
Budi Purwanto
Tiga Pilar Ilmu Keuangan
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Teori Investasi
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Teori Keuangan Korporasi
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Teori Distribusi
Balok-balok Penyusun Teori Investasi
Teori Portfolio
Teori Penentuan Harga Harta Modal
Teori Pasar Modal Efisien
Teori Penentuan Harga Opsi
Teori Keagenan
Balok-balok Penyusun Teori Keuangan
Teori Nilai Perusahaan
Teori Struktur Modal
Teori Keagenan
Teori Pecking Order
Teori Signaling
Teori Nilai Perusahaan
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Fisher, I. 1930. The theory of Interest.
The Present Value Rule.
Tujuan investasi adalah memperoleh aset yang nilainya
lebih besar dari biayanya
Manajer keuangan bertindak atas kepentingan pemegang
saham
Pemegang saham menginginkan memaksimumkan
kemakmuran, mudah menggunakannya kapan pun dan
mengambil risiko atas pola konsumsi tersebut.
Yang dapat dilakukan manajer keuangan tidak lain hanya
memaksimumkan nilai tunai harta yang dikelolanya.
Nilai Perusahaan dan Penganggaran
Modal
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NPV = Σt (CFt)/(1+ko)t -Io)
Estimasi Arus Kas
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Langsung
Tidak langsung
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Estimasi Waktu
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Estimasi Risiko  biaya modal tertimbang
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Biaya utang
Biaya ekuitas
Estimasi Arus Kas
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Langsung
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Pendapatan = Penjualan – Biaya
Pendanaan = Divestasi - Investasi
Tidak Langsung
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Laba Neto + Penyusutan + Perubahan Modal
Kerja
Biaya Modal Rata-Rata Tertimbang
(Weighted average cost of capital) atau
disingkat WACC
e
d
p
WACC = ---------- (ke) + ---------- (kd*) + --------- (kp)
e+d+p
e+d+p
e+d+p
e = jumlah modal saham biasa
d = jumlah utang
p = jumlah modal saham istimewa
ke= biaya modal saham biasa
kd* = biaya modal utang setelah pajak
kp = biaya modal saham istimewa
Teori Struktur Modal
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Struktur modal berkaitan dengan pembelanjaan
jangka panjang, yaitu perbandingan utang jangka
panjang dengan modal sendiri
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Teori struktur modal menjelaskan bagaimana
pengaruh perubahan struktur modal terhadap
nilai perusahaan, biaya modal, dan harga pasar
saham
Teori Struktur Modal
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Hipotesis Independen
(Pendekatan Laba Operasi Neto)
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Hipotesis Dependen
(Pendekatan Laba Neto)
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Ko dan Po independen terhadap struktur modal
Ko dan Po berpengaruh langsung terhadap struktur
modal
Pendekatan Tradisional
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Mempertimbangkan pajak, biaya keagenan dan
kesulitan keuangan
Grafik pengaruh struktur modal terhadap
biaya modal:
Biaya modal (%)
ke
ko
ki
0
B/S
Berdasarkan pendekatan NI, struktur modal optimal
tercapai ketika penggunaan utang maksimal.
Grafik pengaruh struktur modal terhadap biaya
modal berdasarkan pendekatan Net Operating
Income:
Biaya modal (%)
ke
ko
ki
0
B/S
Berdasarkan pendekatan NOI tidak ada struktur modal
optimal
Grafik pengaruh struktur modal terhadap biaya
modal berdasarkan pendekatan tradisional:
Biaya modal (%)
ke
ko
ki
0
B/S
B/S*optimal
Berdasarkan pendekatan tradisional ada struktur modal optimal, yaitu
pada tingkat biaya modal perusahaan minimal.
Modigliani – Miller Position I
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Modigliani – Miller (MM) mendukung pendekatan NOI:
perubahan struktur modal tidak mempengaruhi nilai
perusahaan.
MM: nilai total perusahaan tidak dipengaruhi oleh struktur
modal, melainkan dipengaruhi oleh investasi yang dilakukan
perusahaan dan kemampuan menghasilkan laba
Asumsi yang dikemukakan MM:
- Pasar modal sempurna
- Expected value bagi semua investor sama.
- Perusahaan menghadapi kelas risiko sama
- Tidak ada pajak pendapatan perusahaan
Modigliani – Miller Position II
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Apabila pasar tidak sempurna, maka perubahan
struktur modal dapat mempengaruhi biaya modal
perusahaan dan nilai perusahaan.
Salah satu indikator pasar tidak sempuran adalah
adnya pajak.
- Pajak pendapatan perusahaan.
- Pajak pendapatan pribadi
Grafik pengaruh penggunaan utang terhadap
tingkat pengembalian yang diharapkan pemegang
saham (ke):
Tingkat pengembalian saham (ke)(ke) dengan biaya
kebangkrutan
Premi risiko
keuangan
(ke) tanpa biaya
kebangkrutan
(ke)
tanpa
utang
Premi risiko
bisnis
Risk free rate
0
B/S
Grafik :Pengaruh Pajak dan biaya
kebangkrutan terhadap nilai perusahaan:
Nilai perusahaan
Pengaruh pajak terhadap nilai
perusahaan
Biaya kebangkrutan
Value of
tax shield
Nilai perusahaan dengan pajak
dan biaya kebangkrutan
Value of firm
unleverage
0
B/S optimal
B/S
Teori Keagenan
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An agency relationship exists whenever a
principal hires an agent to act on their behalf
Within a corporation, agency relationships exist
between:
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Shareholders and managers
Shareholders and creditors
Shareholders versus managers
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Managers are naturally inclined to act in their own
best interests
But the following factors affect managerial
behavior:
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Managerial compensation plans
Direct intervention by shareholders
The threat of firing
The threat of takeover
As a managers’ disciplining device debt is good!
Shareholders versus creditors
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Shareholders (through managers) could
take actions to maximize stock price that
are detrimental to creditors
Creditors take this into account, when
lending money
Therefore, In the long run, such actions will
raise the cost of debt and ultimately lower
stock price
Signaling
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Signal is a message credibly conveying
information from informed to uninformed
players
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It is credible
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if it is in the player’s interest to tell the truth
it is too costly to mimic (to lie) by others
Capital structure and signaling
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Assumptions:
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Managers have better information about a firm’s
long-run value than outside investors
Managers act in the best interests of current
stockholders
Managers can be expected to:
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Issue stock if they think stock is overvalued
Issue debt if they think stock is undervalued
As a result, investors view a common stock
offering as a negative signal -- managers think
stock is overvalued
Capital structure and signaling (2)
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Signaling theory, suggests firms should
use less debt than MM suggest
This unused debt capacity helps avoid stock
sales, which depress P0 because of
signaling effects
The Pecking-Order Theory
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Theory stating that firms prefer to issue debt
rather than equity if internal finance is insufficient
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Rule 1: Use internal financing first
Rule 2: Issue debt next, equity last
According to the pecking-order theory:
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There is no target D/E ratio
Profitable firms use less debt (they use self-financing
instead)
Companies like financial slack
Capital structure and option
theory
Stocks and Bonds as Options
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Levered Equity is a Call Option
The underlying asset comprise the assets of the
firm
The strike price is the payoff of the bond
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If at the maturity of debt, the value of the
firm assets is greater than the face value of
debt, the shareholders will pay the
bondholders and “call in” the assets of the
firm
Otherwise, the shareholders will declare
bankruptcy and let the call expire
Stocks and Bonds as Options
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Levered Equity is a Put Option
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If at maturity, the assets of the firm are
less in value than the debt
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The underlying asset comprise the assets of the firm
The strike price is the payoff of the bond
Shareholders have an in-the-money put
They will put the firm to the bondholders
If at maturity the assets are more
valuable than the face value of debt
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The shareholders will not exercise the option
(i.e. NOT declare bankruptcy) and let the put
expire
Capital-Structure Policy and Options
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Recall some of the agency costs of
debt: they can all be seen in terms
of options
For example, recall the incentive
shareholders in a levered firm have
to take large risks
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They do that because high risk projects
increase the value of the option
Value of debt and equity as options
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Example
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Biotech start-up develops a new drug. They finance their investment
with debt maturing in 3 years (repayment of 600 M). By that time
either the drug is successful (with different degrees of success) and
company sells itself to a big pharmaceutical company, or it fails. 4
possible states with equal probability
State: Success Moderate
Payoff: 1000
700
Debt:
600 600
Equity:
400
100
Mediocre
500
500
0
Failure
100
100
0
Equity
Value of debt and equity as
options (2) Debt
600
0
0
600
CF to firm
600
CF to firm
Value of debt and equity as
options (3)
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In option valuation language:
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Underlying asset: the firm itself
Maturity - 3 years (maturity of debt)
Exercise price X = 600 M
Two similar interpretations:
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Equity holders buy a call option from the debtholders (a right to buy the firm from the
bondholders at maturity). Debt-holders
(Bondholders) effectively own the firm and sell the
call option
Alternatively: Equity-holders own the firm, they
borrow 600 M and they buy a put option to sell the
firm to the bondholders at X=600 M
Kesimpulan
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Manajemen keuangan didasarkan pada teori
ilmiah
Manajemen keuangan bersifat teoritis dan
sekaligus aplikatif
Masih banyak tindakan manajemen keuangan
belum dilandasi teori yang terbukti.
Belum semua hipotesis dalam teori keuangan
terbukti atau terpecahkan, dengan kata lain
masih merupakan anomali.