Transcript Red_Angus_EPD_101 - Red Angus Association of America

Predicting
Profit…
Red Angus – EPD 101
EPD 101
RAAA Philosophy
• Commercial producer is our customer.
• Members (Seedstock producers) succeed
through enabling the success (profit) of their
commercial customers.
• More Reliable EPDs for Seedstock producers
result in more reliable genetic products (bulls)
for commercial customers.
EPD 101
• When the science exists to make a
genetic prediction more precise, the
science is implemented.
• Genetic Prediction overseen by
technical committee – not elected
boards…
… EPDs are Science not Politics.
EPD 101
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50 Year Old Performance Registry
Open AI
Performance Data in the Show Ring
Total Herd Reporting (THR)
EPDs for Economic Relevance (ERTs)
What’s ahead?
– Develop Tools to better serve our Commercial
Customers
EPD 101
• Red Angus was the
industry’s first
“performance
registry”
• Since its inception
in 1954, RAAA has
required Weaning
weights for
registration
EPD 101
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1995 - THR
1996 - Stayability EPD
1996 - Carcass EPDs
2000 - Carcass EPDs include Ultrasound Data
2001 - Heifer Pregnancy EPD
2002 - Calving Ease EPDs
(Direct and Maternal)
• 2004 – Maintenance Energy Requirement EPD
EPD 101
EPD =
Expected Progeny
Difference
EPD 101
EPDs predict differences in performance
of average progeny of different sires
Sire A: BW EPD = -1.0
Sire B: BW EPD = 3.5
•EPDs do not predict actual performance
(It doesn’t predict Sire A’s calves will weigh 72#)
•They predict relative performance.
(Sire A’s calves will be on average 4.5 lbs
lighter than Sire’s B’s Calves)
EPD 101
B.L.U.P. =
Best Linear
Unbiased Prediction
Utilizes and weighs information from
individual animals and their relatives.
• Pedigree/Relatives
• Individual Performance
• Progeny
EPD 101
The Bull is the Genetic
Vector…
…also maintains reproductive
status of the cowherd
EPD 101
Genetic Change =
Selection Differential x
Heritability
Selection Differential =
Difference between existing
cowherd and sire selection(s)
EPD 101
Selection Differential:
Selection
Differential
= 30 lbs
YW EPD Example:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Avg. of Cowherd
Avg. of Sires Used on Cowherd
YW EPD = 30
YW EPD = 60
EPD 101
Genetic Improvement
Over Time =
Selection Differential x
Heritability x
Generation Interval
EPD 101
Data and Information Systems
• Collect objective data from member
breeders.
• Analyze the data in an unbiased manner.
• Provide information from the analysis in the
form of genetic predictions.
• Make available decision support software to
aid in the interpretation of the predictions.
EPD 101
A. Collect Objective Data
From Member/Breeders
Assumption – all breed associations
work on the following base regulation:
“All information furnished to the
association as a basis for any action by
the association shall be true and correct.”
EPD 101
• Weights
What an animal weighs on a given day – cannot
compare because calves are born on different
days, and from dams of different ages
• Adj. Wts
Adjusts weights to a common age (205d or
365d) May also adjust for age of dam. Cannot
compare across herds b/c of differences in
environment, management, etc.
• Ratios
Useful for comparing calves within the same
contemporary group only. Can not compare
across herds
• EPDs
Useful for comparing across herds, as mating
bias, environmental, and management
differences are removed by B.L.U.P.
EPD 101
Contemporary Group
A group of animals that have been
exposed to the same environment
and have been given equal
opportunity to perform.
Why are proper contemporary
groups so important?
Ensures that comparisons between
animals are fair and that EPD
reflect genetic differences.
Contemporary Group Sorts:
Ownership/workgroup
Sex
Age
Weigh Date
Mgt. Code
Feed Code
• Implemented in 1995
• Requires Reporting on:
• Production of EVERY Red Angus cow annually
• Weaning Performance of EVERY Red Angus calf
• Avoids Selective Reporting of Data on
“only calves good enough to Register”
EPD 101
THR ensures unbiased, reliable genetic
predictions (EPDs) .
Eliminates Selection bias…
…because it utilizes Complete
Contemporary Group Reporting
EPD 101
Selective Reporting – Growth
Animal
1006
1028
1026
1146
1103
1048
Avg
WW
552
518
500
474
448
434
488
All Data Reported
Deviation Ratio
+64
113
+30
106
+12
102
-14
97
-40
92
-54
89
0
100
EPD 101
Best 50% of
animals reported
Deviation Ratio
+29
106
-5
99
-23
96
0
100
Case study (Mallinckrodt et al., 1995)
Complete EPD
Incomplete EPD
ID
Num
Prog
Progeny Number Selected
Average Reported Avg
WW
Milk
WW
Milk
1
10
400
5
450
0
0
+6
-2
2
10
500
10
500
+20
-2
+12
+1
Sire
EPD 101
EPD 101
Accuracy
Relationship between genetic prediction &
true genetic value
Low Accuracy
<.40
Low/Medium Accuracy
.40 - .60
Medium/High Accuracy
.60 - .80
High Accuracy
> .80
EPD 101
Factors Affecting EPD Accuracy
(Yearling Bulls)
• Accuracy of parental EPDs
• Individual data within contemporary group
• Number of contemporaries
• Number/Accuracies of sires represented
within contemporary group
EPD 101
Factors Affecting EPD Accuracy
(Proven Sires:)
• Number of Progeny
• Number of Contemporary Groups
• Size of Contemporary Groups
• Comparison of Progeny to Progeny of Proven
Sires (within viable contemporary groups)
EPD 101
Accuracy is the tool
to measure our
confidence in a
given EPD.
Confidence Range
shows expected
range of true
genetic value - not
expected variation
in a calf crop.
EPD 101
High accuracy sire
BW
EPD
Med. accuracy sire
Low accuracy sire
EPD 101
High Accuracy sire
YW
EPD
Med. accuracy sire
Low accuracy sire
EPD 101
Possible Change:
We expect true genetic value to
fall within one standard deviation
(2/3) of the time
The other third of the time, true
genetic value will fall outside one
standard deviation.
The standard deviation varies
with different traits and
accuracies as presented in the
“Possible Change” Table.
EPD 101
• Objectively describe reproduction,
growth, maintenance & carcass traits…
• …utilizing the fewest EPDs possible.
EPD 101
• Economically Relevant Traits
– have direct economic impact on producer
– can be easily quantified in economic terms
EPD 101
Red Angus EPDs
Goal: To objectively
describe seedstock
cattle for
Economically
Relevant
Traits.
EPD 101
Red Angus Genetic Predictions
(EPDs)
Reproduction
•Calving Ease (CED)
•Heifer Pregnancy
•Daughters Calving
(CEM)
•Stayability (STAY)
Growth
•Birth Weight
•Weaning Weight
• Milk
•Total Maternal
•Yearling Weight
Maintenance
•Maintenance Energy
Requirement
EPD 101
Carcass
•Marbling
•RibEye Area
• BackFat
Indicator
ERT
Calving Records
Scrotal Circumference
B.W. & Calving Ease Score
B.F. & R.E.A.
Mature Weight, Milk & BCS
Stayability
Heifer Pregnancy Rate
Calving Ease
% Retail Product
Cow Maintenance
Energy Requirement
EPD 101
Focus on
Reproduction
EPD 101
It takes more than milk…
…to make a great beef cow
Beef Replacement Requirements
1. Be Born
Unassisted
5. Complete Steps 1-4
without extra feed or TLC
2. Get Bred to
Calve as a 2-yr-Old
6. Wean a valuable calf
Have Her 1st Calf
3.
Without Assistance
4. Rebreed to Calve
Again in 365 Days
7. Pass on added value
Traits to Offspring
8. Repeat Steps 1-7 on
an annual basis.
EPD 101
Production is the last word in
Reproduction…
EPD 101
• Calving Ease Direct (CED)
– Ability of a calf to be born unassisted
• Heifer Pregnancy (HPG)
– Ability to become pregnant to calve as a
two year old
• Calving Ease Total Maternal (CEM)
– Ability to have a calf unassisted
• Stayability (STAY)
– Ability to remain in the herd producing
EPD 101
Continuous –vs- Categorical
• Continuous
– Can take on any value within reason
• Categorical
– Measure one of two possible outcomes
• Success or Failure
• Yes or No
All Red Angus Reproductive EPDs are
based on Categorical Measures
EPD 101
Trait
Calving Ease
CED, CEM
Heifer
Pregnancy
Stayability
Success
Measure
Failure
Measure
Unassisted
Calving
Assisted
Calving
Pregnant
Open
Active with
progeny at 6
Inactive at 6
EPD 101
Calving Ease
Direct CED
Percent difference of
calves unassisted
at birth
EPD 101
Heifer Pregnancy
HPG
Percent difference of daughters conceiving to
calve at two years of age.
EPD 101
Heifer Fertility
Scrotal
Circumference
EPD 101
Heifer Fertility
Scrotal
Circumference
Age at
Puberty
EPD 101
Heifer Fertility
Scrotal
Circumference
Age at
Puberty
Heifer
Pregnancy
EPD 101
Heifer Fertility
Scrotal
Circumference
SC EPD
Age at
Puberty
Heifer
Pregnancy
EPD 101
Heifer Fertility
Scrotal
Circumference
HPG EPD
Age at
Puberty
SC EPD
Trash
BIF 2001
EPD 101
Heifer
Pregnancy
Calving Ease
Maternal
CEM
• Percent difference of
daughters calving
unassisted
EPD 101
Calving Ease Maternal (CEM)
(1/2)CED
EPD
8 (CED)
+ Maternal EPD =
CEM EPD
Messmer Julian 9486
+
-3 (CEM)
=
1 (CEM)
Not published
EPD 101
Stayability
Stay
Percent difference of daughters staying productive
within a herd until six years of age
EPD 101
Growth
Traits
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EPD 101
Birth Weight BW
Weaning Weight WW
Yearling Weight YW
Milk Milk
Total Maternal TM
• Birth Weight (BW)
– Weight of calf at birth
• Weaning Weight (WW)
– 205-day weight of calf at weaning
• Yearling Weight (YW)
– 365-day weight of calf
• Milk (MILK)
– 205-day weight due to daughter’s milk
• Total Maternal (TM)
– 205-day weight of daughter’s calves
EPD 101
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Red
Angus
Genetic
Trends
Summer 2001 RAAA Genetic Trends for Growth
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
BW
WW
EPD 101
YW
MT
EPD 101
Challenges
Balancing increased Revenue with
Expense of Producing it.
EPD 101
…vs. Maintenance Energy Requirements
EPD 101
Marketing = Environment:
• Background &
sell as yearlings?
• Calf Feds?
• Retained
Ownership
• Replacement
Females
EPD 101
Maintenance Energy
Requirement
ME
The seedstock
industry’s First Look at the expense side of ranchers’ profit equation.
EPD 101
What is Maintenance Energy?
• The energy
required to
sustain body
tissues with no
net change in
body tissues
• Feed required to
maintain body
weight
EPD 101
Mature Cow Maintenance
Energy
• An average of 70% of
feed inputs are used
for maintenance
energy requirements
• Cost of feed inputs
represent 40 to 60%
of the average annual
cow cost
NRC (1996), McGrann (1999), Hughes (1999)
EPD 101
Components of ME EPD
• Mature Weight
• Milk Production
• Body Condition Score (BCS)
EPD 101
Growth & Milk Represent
Revenue (lbs to sell)…
…but antagonisms exist
Growth
Milk
Mature
Size
Visceral
Organ Mass
EPD 101
Maintenance
Energy
Requirements
25
Mature Weight Genetic Trend
20
15
10
5
EPD, 0
lbs
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
Birth Year
EPD 101
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
80
Average Mature Cow Maintenance Energy EPD in Red Angus Cattle
EPD, (Mcal yr)
60
First Mature Weight Data
Collection
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970 1975
Birth Year
EPD 101
1980
1985
1990
1995
Benefits of ME EPD
• Select animals that
are better able to
maintain body
condition score
• Lower annual cost
of production
• Improve selection of
animals for their
production
environment
EPD 101
Carcass EPDs:
Marbling
Units: marbling score
Ribeye Area
Units: square inches
Fat Thickness
Units: inches
EPD 101
• Red Angus combines
both real-time ultrasound
and traditional carcass
data into the calculations
of carcass EPDs
EPD 101
EPD 101