Transcript Protecting Airlines Against MANPADs

Securing Passenger Aircraft From
Man-Portable Air Defense Systems
(MANPADS)
Vicki Bier, Uche Okpara and Natawan Teerapirak
7/16/2015
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What Are MANPADS?
MANPADS are man-portable, shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles.
They are usually equipped with a seeker, typically infra-red (IR) or
ultra-violet (UV) or a combination of these.
Examples:
SA-7 / Grail / Strella-2
SA-14/ Gremlin / Strella-3
SA-16 / Grimlet / Igla-1
SA-18 / Grouse / Igla
(Naming convention: US name / NATO name / Russian name)
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SA-7 / Grail / Strella-2
(US / NATO / Russian)
Maximum effective range: 5,500 m
Maximum effective altitude: 4,500 m
Maximum speed: 580 m/s
Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device
Deployed worldwide
7/16/2015
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SA-14/ Gremlin / Strella-3
(US / NATO / Russian)
Maximum effective range: 6,000 m
Maximum effective altitude: 6,000 m
Maximum speed: 600 m/s
Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device
Deployed worldwide
7/16/2015
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SA-16 / Grimlet / Igla-1
(US / NATO / Russian)
Maximum effective range: 5,000 m
Maximum altitude: 3,500m
Maximum speed: 2 Mach (approximately 660 m/s)
Guidance: passive 2-color IR and UV homing
Improvement on SA-7
Deployed by CIS countries
7/16/2015
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SA-18 / Grouse / Igla
(US / NATO / Russian)
Maximum effective range: 5,200 m
Maximum effective altitude: 3,500 m
Maximum speed: 2 Mach (approximately 660 m/s)
Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device
Deployed worldwide
7/16/2015
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Why Focus On MANPADS?
There are an estimated 500,000 MANPADS in the world today, many
thousands of which are thought to be on the black market and
therefore accessible to terrorists and other non-state actors.
MANPADS are attractive to terrorists and insurgents because they are:
Lethal
Highly portable and concealable
Inexpensive
Relatively easy to use
Within the past two years, MANPADS have been deployed against:
An Israeli civil airliner over Kenya
A DHL cargo craft over Iraq
A US Army Chinook helicopter and
An Air Force C-7 transport plane.
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Key Question
Given:
A region I with center c
An aircraft A with a flight trajectory
from c to w
A MANPAD system M positioned
somewhere in region I
What is the probability that a missile fired
from M would hit A?
w
I
w
c
M
c
Lateral view
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Aerial view
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MANPAD Parameters
HM : maximum height of missile fired from MANPAD system
RM : maximum range of missile fired from MANPAD system
PM : maximum kill probability of a MANPAD system when a missile is
fired at a target A
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Attacker Location Strategies
1. Uniform
2. Near Center
3. Normal Across Flight Path
1
2
3
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Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case
 RM = 5.5 km
 HM = 4.5 km
 CA = 10 km
 γA = 2
 kA = 13 km
 rI = 15.6 km
 rS = 0.8 km
 γP = 45
 kP = 6.4 km
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Sensitivity Analysis - Algorithm
 Choose a parameter to be varied, and determine the range within which it will be varied

Choose a value for Φa (angular direction of the aircraft trajectory, c-w); e.g. Φa = π
 Set all other parameters to their base-case values
 Choose a probability density function fM(m), for the attacker location
 Divide the range of the parameter to be varied into R points
 For each of the R points:
 Generate N random attacker locations in the region of interest according to the
chosen probability density function fM(m)
 For each of the N points:
 Select Q uniformly spaced points along the path c-w
 Generate a vector of distances D = (D1, … , DQ) from m to c-w
 Generate a vector of conditional probabilities P = (P1, … , PQ)
 Compute
 Estimate the expected value by averaging values obtained for
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A detailed presentation is
available to first responders,
government agencies, other
centers, and scientific
organizations upon request.
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