Transcript Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China

Car CO2 emissions reduction
strategies for China
Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata
ESRC BRASS Centre,
Cardiff University
New Markets (000s of new vehicles)
6000
5000
India
Indonesia
PR China
Russia
Brazil
Iran
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2001
2002
2003
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CO2 in our atmosphere (800-2000)
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CO2
Global warming
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Kyoto Protocol
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EU Commitment
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EU: ACEA-EC agreement:
,SO…
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EU Car sector response
• Voluntary reductions from 1995-2004 by a number of manufacturers,
incl. Volvo
• ACEA-EC agreement:
– intro of ‘3 litre’ cars (<100g/km) by 2000
– 2008: average 140g/km
– 2012: average 120g/km (proposed)
• Also followed by JAMA (Japan), KAMA (Korea)
(1995 EU fleet average: 170g/km)
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How do you reduce CO2?
• Improve fuel consumption - increase powertrain
efficiency; reduce weight
• use non-carbon or lower-carbon alternative fuels (e.g.
H2; CNG, LPG)
• use carbon-neutral fuels (e.g.ethanol, biodiesel)
• reduce total miles driven
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CO2 Winners
140g cars:
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–
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120g cars:
Fiat Panda (all)
Fiat Punto 1.2 8v
Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98
Merc A Class 170CDI
MINI One 1.4D
Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi
Renault Scenic 1.5dCI
Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel
VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD
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Audi A21.4TDi
Citroen C2/C3 Hdi
Honda Civic IMA
Peugeot 206 1.4HDi
Renault Megane 1.5dCI
Smart ForTwo Coupe(all)
Toyota Prius
VW Lupo 1.7SDi &
1.4TDiPD
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Average new car CO2 emissions
(2005)
180
175
170
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CO2 G/KM
160
155
150
EU
UK
PRC
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UK
• CO2-based road tax regime
• CO2-based company car taxation system
• Incentives for alternative fuel vehicles
• Fuel price escalator (dropped 2000)
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UK Segmentation change 1994-2003
120
mpv
4x4
sports
luxury
executive
uppermedium
lowermedium
supermini
mini
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80
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0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
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UK new car CO2 emissions 1997-2005 + China 2005
(source: SMMT, BRASS)
200
150
100
PRC
50
0
1997
2012 limit
2008 limit
CO2 g/km
PRC
2012 limit
1999
2001
2003
2005
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China: Forecast car growth 2005-2030
(source: BRASS)
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China – suggested policy/technology options
(Zhengzheng 2006)
• Encourage small cars
• Encourage diesel cars
• Encourage alternative fuels and powertrain
New incentives:
– Reduction of consumption tax on small cars (< 1000cc) from 3% to 1%
– Increase in consumption tax for large vehicles (> 3000cc) from 8% to
14%-20%
– Reduced parking charges for small cars
– Lift all restrictions on use of small cars (e.g. Guangzhou)
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Minicars
• Japanese ‘kei’ cars:
– 3.4mx1.48mx2m
– max 660cc
• Korean minicars (800cc)
• European small car
tradition
– Encouraged by taxation
regimes
– Including sub-cars
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Diesel Cars
• 25% - 30% lower CO2 emissions than petrol for same
engine size
• However higher carbon content per litre
• Diesel is lean-burn hence produces higher NOx
emissions than modern petrol
• Also higher PM emissions – carcinogenic
Most of the EU reduction in vehicle CO2 emissions
has been achieved by a shift from petrol to diesel
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Diesel cars (in red)
140g cars:
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120g cars:
Fiat Panda (all)
Fiat Punto 1.2 8v
Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98
Merc A Class 170CDI
MINI One 1.4D
Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi
Renault Scenic 1.5dCI
Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel
VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD
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–
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Audi A21.4TDi
Citroen C2/C3 Hdi
Honda Civic IMA
Peugeot 206 1.4HDi
Renault Megane 1.5dCI
Smart ForTwo Coupe(all)
Toyota Prius
VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD
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Alternative Fuels/Powertrain
Alternative fuels
– Can be used in existing IC
engines with no or minor
modification
– Low impact on car makers
– Potentially carbon neutral
– E.g.: CNG, LNG, LPG,
biodiesel, bioethanol
Alternative Powertrain
– Alternatives to IC
– High impact on car makers
– E.g.: fuel cells, hybrid-electric?
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Alternatives for China?
• China needs crops to feed its people, not its cars
• China could only make H2 from coal (some hydro, a bit
of oil); which would need carbon sequestration
So these do not solve its immediate problems
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…or hybrid IC-electric:
e.g. Toyota Prius now made in China
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China: CO2 reduction scenarios
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Conclusion
• Although all technologies considered improve on the
baseline
• Hybrid-electric has the greatest impact
• …or possibly a diesel-electric hybrid powertrain fitted to
a minicar!
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