Transcript Political participation of ethnic minorities in Britain

Political participation of ethnic
minorities in Britain
Anthony Heath
Universities of Manchester and
Oxford
The central problem
Widespread concerns in many countries about
the political integration of migrants and their
descendants
• Low election turnout in many countries
• Low identification with mainstream parties
Conversely
• Riots and protest
• Home-grown terrorism in Britain
Theories
Orientations
• Lack of interest (more oriented to origin country/ethnic community,
short-term orientation to life in Britain, economic not political
motives)
• Lack of skills (language, education, economic resources)
Hence ‘exit’ (withdrawal)
Barriers
• Access to citizenship
• Discrimination in the labour market (hence relative deprivation)
• Political exclusion/lack of access to the mainstream agenda
Hence ‘voice’ (protest)
The questions in this paper
• How do minority rates of electoral and nonelectoral participation, party identity and support
for violent protest in Britain compare with those
of the majority group? Do we see ‘exit, voice or
loyalty’?
• How do these patterns vary across ethnic groups?
• And how do patterns change across generations –
towards greater integration or greater exit or
voice?
The conventional wisdom
• Muslim groups will be less loyal – more inclined
to withdrawal and/or (violent) voice
• Economically successful groups like Indians will
be more integrated/loyal
• Less successful groups like Blacks will be more
inclined to protest (the ‘weapon of the weak’)
• Exit will be more common in the first generation
• Voice/Radicalization will be seen in the second
generation (especially among Muslims and
Blacks)
The data
• Ethnic Minority British Election Survey
(EMBES)
• Representative probability survey with many
questions identical to those in the main BES
• Focus on five main ‘visible’ minorities
• Over-sampled in high density areas
• Excellent response rate (circa 60%) with 2787
respondents
Party identification
None
Majority
22
Indian
17
Pakistani
15
Bangladeshi
18
Black Caribbean 15
Black African
15
All minorities
16
weak
25
25
29
27
26
22
26
strong
53
58
57
54
59
63
58
Turnout
Registered
Majority
90
Indian
78
Pakistani
81
Bangladeshi
77
Black Caribbean 79
Black African
64
All minorities 77
self-reported
81
83
81
81
76
76
78
validated
78
76
76
78
78
72
76
Non-electoral participation
volunteered petitioned protested
Majority
44
NA
5
Indian
46
22
7
Pakistani
36
20
8
Bangladeshi
39
18
9
Black Caribbean 46
20
6
Black African
52
16
4
All minorities 44
20
6
Support for violent protest
Majority
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Black Caribbean
Black African
All minorities
15
15
15
18
11
15
15
Myths debunked
• High levels of political integration overall –
only real exception is registration
• No sign of Muslim lack of integration
• No sign that more ‘successful’ minorities are
more politically integrated
• No sign that protest is a ‘weapon of the weak’
Modelling the data
Test theories of
• Grievance (relative deprivation)
• Ethnic (and British) consciousness
• Bonding (and bridging) social capital
• Resources and skills
• Political interest and efficacy
• Sense of political representation
• Generational change
Significant estimates
(minorities only)
Turnout Volunteer Protest Violence
Unrepresented ***
Consciousness
*
Interest
***
***
***
Bonding
***
***
***
**
Education
***
*
2nd generation
***
**
Grievance
***
Average marginal effects
Turnout Volunteer Protest Violence
Unrepresented -.11
Consciousness -.07
Interest
+.24
+.20
+.06
Bonding
+.12
+.11
+.06
+.06
Education
+.11
+.04
2nd generation
+.04
+.04
Grievance
+.10
Conclusions
Different drivers of different outcomes
only bonding social capital is consistently important and
has positive effects
Turnout only outcome affected by ‘anti-system’ feelings
Volunteering and protesting driven by similar factors
(skills) – different sides of the same coin?
Support for violence only outcome to be related to
relative deprivation
Maybe relative deprivation, protest and support for
violent demonstrations are learned in Britain
Discussion
• A highly positive picture of political integration –
generally positive orientations and absence of
major barriers
• Bonding social capital seems to be a ‘good thing’
for integration rather than the villain of the piece
• Muslims (and Blacks) just as integrated as Indians
• Probably the legacy of Old Labour’s record of
incorporation and pursuit of social justice
• But might be under threat as the second
generation come to expect fair and equal
treatment – which they don’t receive