Transcript NIEER Research Meeting with Advocates

Educational and Economic Benefits of
Preschool Education
ETS Policy Forum Conference
Princeton, NJ
March 3, 2009
Steve Barnett, PhD
nieer.org
Impacts of Quality Early Education
Increased Educational Success and Adult Productivity
 Achievement test scores
 Special education and grade repetition
 High school graduation
 Behavior problems, delinquency, and crime
 Employment, earnings, and welfare dependency
 Smoking, drug use, depression
Decreased Costs to Government
 Schooling costs
 Social services costs
 Crime costs
 Health care costs (teen pregnancy and smoking)
Barnett, W. S. (2002) Early childhood education. In A. Molnar (Ed.) School reform proposals: The research evidence (pp.1-26). Greenwich, CT: Information Age
Publishing.
Randomized Trials
 Long Term




1
2
Perry Preschool , IDS , Early Training Project
4
5
6
Abecedarian , Milwaukee , CARE
7
8
IHDP (not Disadvantaged), Houston PCDC
9
Mauritius Preschool Study
 Short Term
10
 National Early Head Start
11
 National Head Start
 Many smaller scale studies
*See slides at the end of the presentation for references.
3
Quasi-Experimental Studies:
Follow-up Into School Years









(12th
12
Chicago Child Parent Center Study
grade)
13
th
Michigan School Readiness (4 grade)
14
South Carolina Pre-K (1st grade)
15
rd
New York Pre-K (3 Grade)
16
th
Ludwig & Miller Head Start (12 grade +)
17
RAND National study of 4th grade NAEP
18
rd
Cost Quality and Outcomes (3 grade)
19
Vandell NICHD Early Care and Education
20
Early Provision of Preschool Education (England)
 More NIEER studies
*See slides at the end of the presentation for references.
Meta-Analysis of Research Since 1960
IQ, Achievement and Language
.45 sd initial effect birth to 5
.16 sd at ages 5-10
.23 sd at age >10
Higher quality studies es .27 sd larger
Social-Emotional & Behavior
.16 sd, no sig. decline over time
Schooling (grade repetition, spec. ed., grad.)
.15 sd, no sig. decline over time
Barnett, W. S. (2002) Early childhood education. In A. Molnar (Ed.) School reform proposals: The research evidence (pp.1-26). Greenwich, CT: Information Age
Publishing.
Effects of Model and Large Scale Public
Programs on School Outcomes
Model
Programs
N
Head Start &
Public School
Mean N
Special Education 19.9%
11
4.7%
9
Grade Repetition 14.9%
14
8.4%
10
Outcome
Mean
Three Benefit-Cost Analyses with
Disadvantaged Children
Abecedarian
1972
Chicago
High/Scope
Year began
1985
1962
Chapel Hill, NC Chicago, IL Ypsilanti, MI
Location
Sample size
111
1,539
123
Matched
Design
RCT
RCT
neighborhood
Ages
Program
schedule
6 wks-age 5
Ages 3-4
Full-day, year Half-day,
round
school year
Ages 3-4
Half-day,
school year
Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and
policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool education:
Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144; Schweinhart, L. J., Montie, J., Xiang, Z., Barnett, W.
S., Belfield, C. R., & Nores, M. (2005). Lifetime effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool study through age 40 (Monographs of the High/Scope Educational
Research Foundation, 14). Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation.
High/Scope Perry Preschool:
Educational Effects
Program group
No-program group
15%
Special Education
(Cog.)
34%
49%
Age 14 achievement
at 10th %ile +
15%
66%
Graduated from high
school on time
0%
45%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Berrueta-Clement, J.R., Schweinhart, L.J., Barnett, W.S., Epstein, A.S., & Weikart, D.P. (1984). Changed lives: The effects of the Perry Preschool Program on
youths through age 19. Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press.
High/Scope Perry Preschool:
Economic Effects at Age 27
Program group
No-program group
Earn $2,000 +
monthly
29%
7%
36%
Own home
13%
41%
Never on welfare
as adult
20%
0%
5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Barnett, W.S. (1996). Lives in the balance: Benefit-cost analysis of the Perry Preschool Program through age 27. Monographs of the High/Scope Educational
Research Foundation. Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press.
High/Scope Perry Preschool:
Arrests per person by age 27
Felony
Program
0.7
No program
1.2
Misdemeanor
0.5
1.5
0.0
Juvenile
2.3 arrests
2.5
1.0
2.0
0.6
3.0
4.0
4.6 arrests
5.0
6.0
Barnett, W.S. (1996). Lives in the balance: Benefit-cost analysis of the Perry Preschool Program through age 27. Monographs of the High/Scope
Educational Research Foundation. Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press.
Perry Preschool: Economic Effects at 40
Program group
No-program group
60%
Earned > $20K
40%
76%
Employed
62%
76%
Had Savings
Account
0%
50%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Schweinhart, L. J., Montie, J., Xiang, Z., Barnett, W. S., Belfield, C. R., & Nores, M. (2005). Lifetime effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool study through
age 40 (Monographs of the High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, 14). Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation.
Perry Preschool: Crime Effects at 40
Program group
No-program group
36%
Arrested > 5X
55%
33%
Violent Crime
48%
14%
Drug Crime
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Schweinhart, L. J., Montie, J., Xiang, Z., Barnett, W. S., Belfield, C. R., & Nores, M. (2005). Lifetime effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool study through
age 40 (Monographs of the High/Scope Educational Research Foundation, 14). Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Educational Research Foundation.
Abecedarian Reading Ach. Over Time
READING SCORE
105
100
95
90
85
TREATMENT
CONTROL
80
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
AGE (Years)
Campbell, F. A., Pungello, E. P., Miller-Johnson, S., Burchinal, M., & Ramey, C. (2001). The development of cognitive and academic abilities: Growth
curves from an early childhood educational experiment. Developmental Psychology, 37, 231-242.
Abecedarian Math Achievement Over Time
MATH SCORES
105
TREATMENT
CONTROL
100
95
90
85
80
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
AGE (Years)
Campbell, F. A., Pungello, E. P., Miller-Johnson, S., Burchinal, M., & Ramey, C. (2001). The development of cognitive and academic abilities: Growth curves
from an early childhood educational experiment. Developmental Psychology, 37, 231-242.
Abecedarian : Academic Benefits
Program group
No-program group
31%
Special Education
49%
34%
Grade Repeater
65%
67%
HS Graduation
4 Yr College
0%
51%
36%
13%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and
policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Campbell, F.A., Ramey, C.T., Pungello, E., Sparling, J., & Miller-Johnson, S. ( 2002). Early
childhood education: Young adult outcomes from the Abecedarian Project. Applied Developmental Science, 6(1), 42-57.
Chicago CPC: Academic and
Social Benefits at School Exit
Program group
No-program group
50%
HS Graduation
39%
14%
Special Education
25%
23%
Grade Repeater
38%
17%
Juvenile Arrest
0%
25%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs.
Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144
Economic Returns to Pre-K
for Disadvantaged Children
(In 2006 dollars, 3% discount rate)
Cost
Benefits
B/C
 Perry Pre-K
$17,599
$284,086
16
 Abecedarian
$70,697
$176,284
2.5
 Chicago
$ 8,224
$ 83,511
10
Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and
policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Belfield, C., Nores, M., Barnett, W.S., & Schweinhart, L.J. (2006). The High/Scope Perry
Preschool Program. Journal of Human Resources, 41(1), 162-190; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool
education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144.
Perry Preschool Economic Return
Welfare
Child Care
Benefits
$8K
$65K
Education
Crime
Earnings
Preschool
$174K
$249,663
$15,386
Costs
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000
CPC Economic Return
Education
Participant Earnings
Child Care
Benefits
$5K
Human Services
Crime
Preschool
$30K
$36K
$75,596
Costs
$7,384
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Abecedarian Economic Return
Education
Participant Earnings
Health
Benefits
Maternal Earnings
Future Generations
Preschool
$69K
$8K
$38K
$6K
$18K
$138,598
Costs
$43,983
(preK & collegechildcare)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000 $120,000 $140,000
Why Pre-K for All ?
For disadvantaged children
Targeting is imperfect—over and under
Peer effects
Quality?
For all other children
School failure problem not just the poor
Pre-K yields gains for everyone
Cognitive Development Gap
Median Abilities of Entering Kindergarteners by Family Income
60.00
55.00
Lost Potential Growth
Lost Potential Growth
Reading
Math
50.00
General
Know ledge
45.00
40.00
Low est 20%
4th Quintile
Middle 20%
2nd Quintile
Highest 20%
Barnett, W. S. (2007). Original analysis of data from the US Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, ECLS-K Base Year Data files
and Electronic Codebook (2002).
Social Skills Gap
Median Social Skills of Entering Kindergarteners by Income
9.60
9.40
Lost Potential Growth
9.20
9.00
8.80
8.60
8.40
Lowest 20%
4th Quintile
Middle 20%
2nd Quintile
Highest 20%
Barnett, W. S. (2007). Original analysis of data from the US Department of Education, National Center for Educational Statistics, ECLS-K Base Year Data files
and Electronic Codebook (2002).
School Failure and the Middle Class
Middle class children have fairly high rates of failure.
Reducing these problems could generate large benefits.
Income
Lowest 20%
20-80%
Highest 20%
Retention (2004)
12%
8%
4%
Dropout (2005)
18%
9%
2%
Barnett, W. S. (in press). Benefits and costs of quality early childhood education. The Children's Legal Rights Journal (CLRJ), Spring 2007. US
Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, October 2004 and October 2005.
Oklahoma 4th Grade NAEP Scores
Before and After Pre-K
YEAR
2002 Reading
2003 Reading
2005 Reading
2007 Reading
2000 Math
2003 Math
2005 Math
2007 Math
White
220
220
219
223
229
235
240
242
Black
188
195
196
204
205
211
217
220
Hisp.
197
200
204
198
207
220
226
227
Indian
209
206
211
213
221
225
229
234
Georgia 4th Grade Math NAEP Scores
Before and After Pre-K
YEAR
1996
2000
2003
2005
2007
White
224
230
Black
201
204
Hispanic
205
217
241
243
246
217
221
222
219
229
229
Georgia 4th Grade Reading NAEP
Scores Before and After Pre-K
YEAR
1998
White
221
Black
191
Hispanic
Not Avail.
2002
226
200
200
2003
226
199
201
2005
2007
226
230
199
205
203
212
Oklahoma’s Pre-K for All




3,000 children in Tulsa public schools
Rigorous RD design
Gains for all SES & ethnic groups
Literacy and Math gains
 Smaller than Perry and Abecedarian
 Similar to CPC
 Larger gains for minority and poor children
 Larger gains in pre-K for all than in Head Start
with equal teacher qualifications
Source: Gormley et al. (2008). CROCUS/Georgetown University
Achievement Gains from Pre-K
Perry
Cog/Lang 75%
Tulsa
NA
8 States
23%
Hd St (adj)
5% (8%)
Math
NA
36%
31%
10% (15%)
Print
NA
99%
79%
22% (32%)
 Effects as percentage of achievement gap (1standard
deviation) with Head Start as originally estimated and
adjusted for crossovers.
New Jersey Abbott Pre-K (APPLES)
• Quality raised dramatically
• Immediate impacts of one year at 4 on:
– Language ES = 50-56%
– Math
ES = 23-36%
– Print
ES = 50-56%
• Two years have twice the effect of 1 year
• Effects sustained through 2nd grade
–
–
–
–
Language ES = 40% 2 yrs, 22% 1 yr
Math
ES = 44% 2 yrs, 24% 1 yr
Reading Comprehension improved
Grade repetition = 10% no pre-K, 7.5% 1 yr, 5% 2 yrs
Pre-K Gains by Income
NJ-Hi
Cog/Lang 5.6
NJ-Lo
5.5
OK-Hi
6.2
OK-Lo
8.7
Math
.6
.8
1.6
2.0
Print
12.8
18.8
18.0
25.0
Effects of Pre-K Teacher Qualifications
Math
Print
Spelling
TPS
THS
NHS (adj.)
36%
99%
74%
37%
51%
33%
10% (15%)
22% (32%)
16% (24%)
 Effects as percentage of the achievement gap (1standard
deviation). NHS effects as originally estimated and
adjusted for crossovers.
International Studies of Pre-K for All
•
•
•
•
•
Gains in learning and development
Positive peer effects for low SES children
Teachers and quality matter
Higher test scores in math & science (PISA)
Less with-in country inequality in test
scores
Conclusions
 Pre-K can be a sound investment if done right
 The market does not work for pre-k
 Educational and economic benefits depend on:
 Quality
 Quantity
 Who is served
 All children benefit
 Disadvantaged gain more if all children attend
References
1.
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2.
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Effective pre-school