Economics of UPK

Benefits and Costs of Quality Early Childhood Education for All

Presentation at a Conference on The Law and Policy of Universal Preschool Chicago, IL

October 13, 2006 W. Steven Barnett, Ph.D.

National Institute for Early Education Research www.nieer.org

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Benefits of Early Education

 

Many studies in the US and elsewhere

Increased test scores and school success Better social behavior   

Three benefit cost analyses

Increased earnings and tax revenue Lower government costs Lower crime costs 2

Three Benefit-Cost Analyses with Disadvantaged Children

Abecedarian Chicago High/Scope Year began

1972 1985 1962

Location

Chapel Hill, NC Chicago, IL Ypsilanti, MI

Sample size Design Ages

111 RCT 6 wks-age 5 1,539 Matched neighborhood Ages 3-4 123 RCT Ages 3-4

Program schedule

Full-day, year round Half-day, school year Half-day, school year 3

High/Scope Perry Preschool: Educational Effects Special Education (Cog.) Program group No-program group 15% 34% Age 14 achievement at 10th %ile + 15% 49% Graduated from high school on time 66% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

4

High/Scope Perry Preschool: Economic Effects at Age 27 Program group No-program group Earn $2,000 + monthly 7% 29% 36% Own home 13% 41% Never on welfare as adult 0% 10% 20% 20% 30% 40% 50%

5

Earned > $20K High/Scope Perry Preschool: Economic Effects at 40 Source: Schweinhart et al., 2005 Program group No-program group 60% 40% 76% Employed 62% Had Savings Account 76% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

6

High/Scope Perry Preschool: Arrests per person by age 27 Felony Misdemeanor Juvenile Program 0.7

1.2

0.5

2.3 arrests No program 1.5

2.5

0.6

4.6 arrests 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7

Perry Preschool: Crime Effects at 40 Source: Schweinhart et al. 2005 Program group No-program group 36% Arrested > 5X 55% 33% Violent Crime 48% Drug Crime 0% 14% 10% 20% 30% 34% 40% 50% 60%

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Abecedarian : Academic Benefits

Special Education Program group No-program group 25% 48% Grade Repeater 31% 55% HS Graduation 67% 51% 4 Yr College 36% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

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105 Abecedarian Reading Ach. Over Time 100 95 90 85 80 8 10 12 14 16 AGE (Years) 18 TREATMENT CONTROL 20 22 10

Abecedarian Math Achievement Over Time

105 100 95 90 85 80 8 10 12 14 16 AGE (Years) 18 TREATMENT CONTROL 20 22 11

Chicago CPC: Academic and Social Benefits at School Exit

Program group No-program group 50% HS Graduation 39% Special Education Grade Repeater 14% 25% 23% 38% Juvenile Arrest 17% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

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Economic Returns to Pre-K for Disadvantaged Children

Cost Benefits B/C



Perry Pre-K

 

Abecedarian Chicago $16,264 $36,929 $ 7,417 $277,631 $139,571 $ 52,936 17.07

3.78

7.14

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Other Relevant RCT’s with Long-Term Follow-UP

 Milwaukee Project  CARE  IHDP (age 18 follow-up, not disadv.)  Houston PCDC  Mauritius Preschool Study 14

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Could Universal Pre-K Produce Similar Benefits for the Middle Class?

Middle class children have fairly high rates of the problems that preschool reduces for low-income children. Reducing these problems could generate large benefits.

Income Lowest 20% 20-80% Highest 20% Retention 17% Dropout 23% 12% 11% 8% 3%

Source:US Department of Education, NCES (1997). Dropout rates in the United States: 1995. Figures are multi-year averages. 16

Cognitive Readiness Gap—Half as Big at Median as for the Poor (bottom 20%) Abilities of Entering Kindergarteners by Family Income- National Data, Fall 1998 (reported by NIEER from ECLS-K) Abilities Scores

60.0

55.0

50.0

School Readiness Gap

45.0

40.0

Low est 20% 2nd Low est 20% Middle 20% 2nd Highest 20% Highest 20%

Fam ily Incom e

Reading Math General Knowledge 17

Social Scores

Social Readiness Gap

Social Skills of Entering Kindergarteners by Family Income

9.80

9.60

9.40

9.20

9.00

8.80

8.60

8.40

8.20

8.00

School Readiness Gap

Lowest 20% 2nd Lowest 20% Middle 20% 2nd Highest 20% Top 20%

Family Income

Social Skills 18

Effects of Today’s Programs

 Two new rigorous state pre-K studies  National Impact Study of Head Start  Michigan School Readiness Program  Cost Quality and Outcomes  NICHD Child care Study  EPPE in England 19

Oklahoma’s Universal Pre-K

     3,028 children in Tulsa public schools Rigorous RD design Gains for all SES & ethnic groups Literacy and Math gains   Smaller than Perry and Abecedarian Similar to CPC Larger gains for minority and poor children Source: Gormley et al. (2004). CROCUS/Georgetown University 20

NIEER Evaluation of 5 State Pre-K Programs

      5,071 children in 5 States OK and WV are universal MI, NJ, & SC targeted Gains from Pre-K in all 5 states Gains in language, literacy & math All children gain, low-income gain more Source: Barnett et al. (2005). NIEER/Rutgers University 21

Is Targeting More Cost-Effective?

Targeting is costly and imperfect



Poverty is a moving target



Need is not defined by targeting alone



Targeting is not perfect Benefits do not stop at the poverty line



Middle class has similar problems



Benefits decrease gradually with income

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Economic Comparison of Targeted and Universal Pre-K

Targeted Programs Have Lower Total Cost Universal Programs Have Higher Benefits - they can reach more of the target children --greater diversity in the classroom increases gains for disadvantaged children --some benefits gained for all or most children Under Plausible Assumptions Universal is Better Investment Source: Barnett (2004). Maximizing returns from pre-kindergarten education. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Research Conference.

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High Quality Preschool Programs Needed to Produce Benefits

 Well-educated preschool teachers  Adequate teacher compensation  Small classes and reasonable teacher:child ratios  Strong supervision  High standards and accountability 24

Conclusions

 Pre-K for all can be a sound investment  Too few children attend now  Quality and intensity is too low  Universal can be more cost-effective  We can target within universal 25