Transcript EU beef and veal market A brief overview and some

Review of the situation on the
EU Beef and Veal Market
"Single CMO" Management Committee
17 February 2011
Beef Meat Production - in Heads
Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
HEADS
EU 27
EU 25
EU 15
Jan-Nov
+ 10 %
+ 10 %
+8,1%
EU 2
EU 10
EU : + 0,6%
+6,5%
-0,6%
-0,6%
-0,9%
+5,3%
+6,1%
+4,7%
Bulls
-6,9%
+1,9%
+2,4%
+4,3%
+4,3%
+4,3%
+2,3%
+0,1%
Steers
-14,0%
+19,0%
-0,1%
0%
0%
-0,3%
-3,6%
-0,2%
-1,2%
-1,1%
-1,2%
-0,8%
-2,0%
-2,3%
Cow s
+0,6%
-3,4%
+7,1%
-7,8%
-5,2%
-0,1%
-0,1%
-3,7%
-4,8%
-5,9%
Heifers
-7,2%
-0,2%
-9,0%
-8,5%
+2,2%
+2,3%
+2,4%
- 10 %
Veals
-11,1%
-52,6%
+5,0%
- 10 %
-9,4%
-12,4%
+10,8%
+10,2%
-14,9%
+10,7%
YBov
-14,6%
+1,0%
+0,6%
+56,7%
+0,6%
Tot Bov
- 20 %
- 20 %
-3,0%
+2,1%
BE BG CZ
DK DE
EE
IE
GR ES F R
IT
C Y LV
LT
LU H U M T
NL AT
PL PT
RO
SI
SK
FI
SE
UK
Estimates for last month of period : BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
2
Beef / Veal Production – 2010 / 2009 Evolution per MS ( Heads % share )
Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
-
( 2010 Nov & Dec Forecasts for some MS )
Jan-Dec 09 / Jan-Dec 10
100%
Cows
80%
Steers
60%
Bulls
40%
Heifers
20%
YBov
0%
Veals
B E
B G
C
Z
D
K
D
E
E
E
I
E
G R
E S
F
R
I
T
C
Y
L
V
L
T
L
U
H
U
M T
N
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
L
A T
P
L
P
T
R
O
S
I
S
K
F
I
S E
U K
3
Beef Meat Production - in Tons
Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
TONNES
EU 15
EU 25
Jan-Nov
EU 27
EU 10
+0,8%
+9,5%
+ 10 %
EU 2
+1,2%
+7,5%
+6,9%
+1,1%
Bulls
+4,4%
+3,7%
+3,4%
-1,9%
+2,7%
+2,3%
+1,6%
+5,6%
+5,6%
+5,6%
Steers
+19,4%
+0,8%
+ 10 %
+9,1%
EU : + 2,1%
-10,5%
-0,1%
+0,7%
+1,2%
+0,3%
+0,3%
-0,1% +0,1%
0%
0%
-1,3%
-0,0%
-2,4%
Cow s
-7,5%
+3,7%
+3,0%
-3,2%
-3,4%-3,6%
-3,5%
+7,7%
+3,0%
Heifers
-6,9%
+2,7%
+8,9%
+2,6%
+2,4%
-9,2%
- 10 %
Veals
-10,8%
-2,2%
- 10 %
-9,5%
-10,4%
-53,1%
-14,6%
+15,4%
+14,8%
+15,3%
YBov
-20,1%
+70,3%
-17,7%
+2,4%
+2,0%
+2,1%
Tot Bov
- 20 %
-1,8%
+4,9%
- 20 %
B E B G C Z D K D E EE
IE
GR ES F R
IT
C Y LV
LT
LU H U M T N L A T
P L P T RO
SI
SK
FI
S E UK
Estimates for last month of period : BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
4
Beef / Veal Production – 2010 / 2009 Evolution per MS (1000 Tonnes )
Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
-
( 2010 Nov & Dec Forecasts for some MS )
Jan-Dec 09 / Jan-Dec 10
1600
Cows
1400
Steers
1200
1000
Bulls
800
Heifers
600
400
YBov
200
Veals
0
B E
B G
C Z
D K
D E
E E
I
E
G R
E S
F R
I
T
C Y
L V
L T
L U
H U
M T
N L
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
A T
P L
P T
R O
S I
S K
F
I
S E
U K
5
Percentual change in Adult Cattle Slaughter
Period: Jan - December (prov.)
Year: 2010 / 2009
12.5%
0.0%
-12.5%
-25.0%
BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI
EL ES FR IT
CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK
EU
Real + forecasted data
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
6
Change in Veal Slaughter
(Calves & Young Cattle)
Period: Jan - December (prov.)
Year:2009 & 2010
200.000
Y. Cattle
Slaughter in Tonn
175.000
Calves
150.000
125.000
100.000
75.000
50.000
25.000
0.000
BE BG CZ DK DE
EE
EI
EL
ES
FR
IT
CY LV
LT
LU HU MT NL
ÖS PL
PT
RO
SI
SK SF
SE UK
Real + forecasted data
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
7
Beef/Veal - in Average Carcase Weight
Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
Avg WEIGHT
EU 15
Jan-Nov
EU 25
EU 10
+1,7%
+1,7%
EU 27
+ 15 %
+ 15 %
+14,5%
EU 2
+1,8%
Bulls
+2,4%
EU : + 1,4%
+5,3%
+ 10 %
+1,2%
+1,2%
+ 10 %
+1,2%
Steers
+0,4%
+1,0%
+1,1%
+7,8%
+4,1%
+1,0%
Cow s
+0,4%
+0,5%
+5%
+3,1%
+3,2%
+5%
+4,2%
+3,2%
Heifers
+2,3%
+9,2%
+2,2%
+1,8%
+0,5%
+0,2%
+1,3%
+1,0%+1,0%
+0,4%
+0,2%
Veals
-6,9%
+4,2%
+4,1%
-0,9%
+2,3%
+1,3%
+1,3%
+1,3%
+2,6%
+0,5%
+0,4%
+0,0%
-0,1%
0%
0%
+4,1%
-1,3%
YBov
-6,5%
+2,5%
+2,0%
+2,1%
+1,5%
+1,3%
-2,1%
+8,7%
-2,8%
-2,1%
+1,4%
+1,4%
+1,4%
Tot Bov
-5%
+1,2%
+2,8%
Estimates ( HD ) for last month of period :
-5%
B E B G C Z D K D E EE
IE
BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL
GR ES F R
IT
C Y LV
LT
LU H U M T N L A T
P L P T RO
Estimates ( TN ) for last month of period :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
SI
SK
FI
S E UK
BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL
8
EU exports of beef and live animals (1):
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
Destinations
Russia
2006
tonnes
2007
%
145 383 45.6%
Turkey
tonnes
2008
%
87 277 35.2%
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
102 347 35.1%
Jan-Dec 10
%
50 881 20.4%
tonnes
%
Compared
to Jan-Dec 09
135 762 28.0%
+ 166.8%
974
0.3%
214
0.1%
204
0.1%
571
0.2%
70 370 14.5%
+++
4 823
1.5%
3 647
1.5%
5 619
1.9%
7 838
3.1%
33 774
7.0%
+++
Croatia
18 907
5.9%
16 460
6.6%
19 917
6.8%
25 126 10.1%
23 159
4.8%
- 7.8%
Sw itzerland
10 162
3.2%
14 457
5.8%
25 968
8.9%
19 072
7.7%
22 340
4.6%
+ 17.1%
Algeria
9 467
3.0%
1 674
0.7%
1 689
0.6%
6 681
2.7%
16 151
3.3%
+ 141.7%
Ivory coast
4 938
1.5%
6 941
2.8%
8 969
3.1%
13 404
5.4%
14 853
3.1%
+ 10.8%
Lebanon
EXTRA EU 25/27 318 927
% change
247 722
291 601
249 165
485 166
- 22%
+ 18%
- 15%
+ 94.5%
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
9
EU exports of beef and live animals (2):
Trade figures (COMEXT)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000
EUR)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal
(Tonnes cwe)
1 246
588
600 000
485 166
1 200 000
500 000
369 358
33 774
139 288
1 689
520
64
19
70 370
102 347
135 762
Jan-Dec 08
Jan-Dec 09
Jan-Dec 10
Turkey
Algeria
200 000
100 000
6 681
758
73
18
50 881
Russia
Croatia
Other destinations
300 000
652 239
256 436
615 407
93 784
67 465
800 000
106 360
600 000
251 608
400 000
274 215
7 032
1 43 5719 6
212 869
121
237 414
070
606
276 009
Jan-Dec 08
Jan-Dec 09
Jan-Dec 10
Russia
Croatia
Other destinations
Turkey
Algeria
31 580
0
Lebanon
Switzerland
200 000
0
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
Lebanon
Switzerland
10
1,000 EUR
135 857
22 340
16 151
Tonnes
291 601
249 458
1 000 000
400 000
cw
183 611
1 400 000
EU exports of beef and live animals (3):
Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe)
Live
animals
Fresh
beef
Frozen
beef
Offals
Tinned
beef
Total
9.253
20.385
4.949
0
936
35.523
17.113 103.814
38.075
0
23,9%
+669,3%
0,0%
Jul 09 - Dec 09
Jul 10 - Dec 10
%share
% chg /prev.per
10,8%
+84,9%
65,3%
+409,3%
Evolution per category (tonnes cwe)
0 159.002
0,0%
-100,0%
100,0%
+347,6%
Evolution in export structure (% share)
100%
100000
80%
80000
60%
60000
40%
40000
20%
20000
0%
0
Live anim als
2004/05
2005/06
Fresh beef
2006/07
Frozen beef
2007/08
Offal
2008/09
Tinned beef
2009/10
2010/11
2004/05
Live animals
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
2005/06
2006/07
Fresh beef
2007/08
Frozen beef
2008/09
Offal
2009/10
2010/11
Tinned beef
11
Exports of BEEF products
80 000
70 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
in Tonnes cwe
60 000
20 000
10 000
0
|
Jan06
2006
|
Jan07
LIVE ANIMALS
2007
|
Jan08
FRESH
2008
|
Jan09
FROZEN
2009
|
Jan10
PREPARED
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
OTHERS
12
EU bovine Exports to TURKEY
Trade figures (COMEXT data)
tonnes cwe
40 000
35 000
Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters
Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters
30 000
Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters
Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quarters
25 000
Live Animals
TOTAL
20 000
15 000
10 000
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
Dec 10
Nov 10
Oct 10
Sep 10
Aug 10
Jul 10
0
Jun 10
May 10
Apr 10
Mar 10
Feb 10
Jan 10
5 000
13
EU imports of beef and live animals (1):
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
Origins
Brazil
2006
tonnes
2007
%
tonnes
2008
%
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
Jan-Dec 10
%
tonnes
331 762 64.7% 363 839 65.4% 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791
%
Compared
to Jan-Dec 09
38.2%
- 3.3%
Argentina
82 865 16.1%
97 656 17.6%
92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4%
79 487
21.0%
- 35.3%
Uruguay
45 350
8.8%
39 544
7.1%
66 402 16.8%
79 144 18.4%
66 156
17.5%
- 16.9%
7 118
1.4%
13 929
2.5%
10 395
2.6%
11 452
2.7%
15 763
4.2%
+ 37.7%
956
0.2%
2 746
0.5%
6 547
1.7%
9 609
2.2%
15 290
4.0%
+ 57.5%
New Zealand
7 195
1.4%
5 756
1.0%
12 455
3.2%
15 783
3.7%
13 669
3.6%
- 13.4%
Namibia
8 063
1.6%
10 467
1.9%
10 348
2.6%
12 457
2.9%
13 571
3.6%
+ 7.9%
12 366
2.4%
10 019
1.8%
12 957
3.3%
16 937
3.9%
13 628
3.6%
- 19.5%
Switzerland
1 979
0.4%
2 855
0.5%
2 919
0.7%
4 394
1.0%
4 450
1.2%
+ 1.1%
Chile
2 036
0.4%
2 844
0.5%
2 550
0.6%
3 158
0.7%
2 441
0.6%
- 22.7%
Serbia
1 912
0.4%
2 324
0.4%
1 784
0.5%
990
0.2%
1 127
0.3%
+ 13.8%
Botswana
USA
Australia
EXTRA EU 25/27513 160
% change
556 024
395 063
431 182
378 954
+ 8%
- 29%
+ 9%
- 12.5%
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
14
EU imports of beef and live animals (2):
Trade figures (COMEXT)
IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU
(Tonnes cwe)
IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU
(1000 EUR)
1 658 595
500 000
432 978
395 044
55 307
45 281
66 404
59 561
181 271
211 329
400 000
350 000
79 577
In
250 000 T o n n e s
cwe
200 000
122 867
79 487
1 600 000
254 500
1 400 000
309 235
300 000
66 156
92 903
1 541 783
450 000
378 954
1 6 2 3 0 4 2 1 800 000
1 200 000
274 307
265 329
508 770
470 251
558 814
1 000 000
600 000
150 000
171 454
149 735
400 000
100 000
144 791
504 013
431 247
485 858
Jan-Dec 08
Jan-Dec 09
Jan-Dec 10
50 000
Jan-Dec 09
200 000
0
0
Jan-Dec 08
800 000
in
1000
EUR
Jan-Dec 10
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
USA
New Zealand
Other destinations
USA
New Zealand
Other destinations
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
15
Imports of BEEF products
60 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
in Tonnes cwe
50 000
10 000
0
|
Jan06
2006
|
Jan07
FRESH
2007
|
Jan08
FROZEN
2008
|
Jan09
2009
PREPARED
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
|
Jan10
OTHERS
16
EU beef imports from Brazil
Trade figures (COMEXT data)
tonnes cwe
40 000
Fresh Boneless
Frozen Boneless Other
35 000
Corned Beef
Prepared Cooked Bovine
30 000
TOTAL
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
Nov 10
Sep 10
Jul 10
May 10
Mar 10
Jan 10
Nov 09
Sep 09
Jul 09
May 09
Mar 09
Jan 09
Nov 08
Sep 08
Jul 08
May 08
Mar 08
Jan 08
Nov 07
Sep 07
Jul 07
May 07
Mar 07
Jan 07
0
17
EU net import of beef and live animals?
1 400
1 263
IMPORTS
1 171
EXPORTS
1 200
1 120
1 028
1 000
825
800
598
491
452
446
403
401
436
429
ne
T on
598
529
513
481
455
565
0
10 0
736
600
556
513
485
398
395
431
379
352
292
400
292
248
249
200
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
2007
2008
2009
JanDec 10
18
United States (up to Nov 10)
Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)
2 000
1 800
.
.
1 000
Uruguay (up to Oct 10)
Argentina (up to Nov 10)
India (up to Jul 10)
EU *
.
Canada (up to Nov 10)
New Zealand
1 200
800
Qty in 1000 Tonnes
1 400
Brazil
.
Australia
1 600
Uruguay (up to Oct 10)
Argentina (up to Nov 10)
India (up to Jul 10)
EU *
Canada (up to Nov 10)
New Zealand
Brazil
.
.
Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to Dec) - Monthly
figures
Australia
United States (up to Nov 10)
Source : GTA
600
400
200
0
2009 (up to Dec)
2010 (up to Dec)
* EU was the 11th biggest importer of Beef products in 2009
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
19
Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)
1 000
400
Qty in 1000 Tonnes
600
Turkey
Canada (up to Nov 10)
EU *
South Korea
800
Japan
Mexico (up to Nov 10)
China + H. Kong
Russia
United States (up to Nov 10)
1 200
Turkey
Canada (up to Nov 10)
EU *
South Korea
Japan
Mexico (up to Nov 10)
China + H. Kong
Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to Dec) - Monthly
figures
Russia
United States (up to Nov 10)
Source : GTA
200
0
2009 (up to Dec)
2010 (up to Dec)
* EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 2009
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
20
Evolution in EU carcass prices (1):
Carcasses of adult male bovines (A/C price – €/100 kg cw)
€/100 kg cwe
% of Reference Price
362
163%
342
154%
322
145%
302
136%
282
127%
262
118%
242
109%
222
100%
1
5
9
13
17
2004-2008 Avg
21
25
29
2009
Price in week 5 : 345,46
% change y/y : + 6,2%
% Ref. Price in wk 5 : 155,3%
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
33
37
41
45
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
% change y/y :
49
53
2011
345,81
+ 7,1%
21
Evolution in EU carcass prices (2):
Young bull carcasses (A R3 – €/100 kg cw)
360
340
320
300
280
1
5
9
13
2004-2008 Avg
Price in week 5 :
% change y/y :
350,54
+ 6,8%
17
21
25
29
2009
33
37
41
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
% change y/y :
45
49
53
2011
348,33
+ 7,2%
22
Evolution in EU carcass prices (3):
Steer carcasses (C R3 – €/100 kg cw)
340
320
300
280
1
5
9
13
2004-2008 Avg
Price in week 5 :
% change y/y :
324,16
+ 7,7%
17
21
25
29
2009
33
37
41
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
% change y/y :
45
49
53
2011
328,09
+ 9,1%
23
Evolution in EU carcass prices (4):
Cow carcasses (D O3 – €/100 kg cw)
250
240
230
220
210
1
5
9
13
2004-2008 Avg
Price in week 5 :
% change y/y :
242,47
+ 9,3%
17
21
25
29
2009
33
37
41
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
% change y/y :
45
49
53
2011
241,00
+ 9,0%
24
Evolution in EU carcass prices (5):
Heifer carcasses (E R3 – €/100 kg cw)
340
330
320
310
300
1
5
9
13
17
2004-2008 Avg
Price in week 5 :
% change y/y :
338,65
+ 8,3%
21
25
29
2009
33
37
41
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
% change y/y :
45
49
53
2011
339,78
+ 9,8%
25
Beef prices in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br),
Argentina (Oncca) Uruguay (Inac) and EU
300,0
€uro/ 100kg
250,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
|
ye ar
2007
|
Ye ar
2008
|
Ye ar
2009
|
Ye ar
2010
|
Ye ar 2011
EU Beef A/C R3
AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br)
Novillos Export (Oncca Argentina)
Media Res Novillo (Inac Uruguay)
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
26
|
weekly US & EU Steer prices in €uro/100kg
360.00
320.00
280.00
240.00
200.00
160.00
120.00
80.00
|
07
|
08
|
Steers 550-700lb Omaha (Nebraska)
EU Beef C R3
Canada: All Steers
09
|
10
|
Feeder Steer 600-700lb Oklahoma City
Steers 1050 - 1200lb Okla/ Tex
Australia: All Steers
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
27
11
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (1)
Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)
230
220
210
200
190
1
5
9
13
17
2004-2008 Avg
Price in week 5 :
% change y/y :
207,36
- 6,2%
21
25
29
33
2009
37
41
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
% change y/y :
45
49
53
2011
207,84
- 4,6%
28
2010 / 2011 Evolution in prices :
(2a)
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
DE - FLECKVIEH
FR - MALES-ELEVAGE
NL - VLEESRAS--NUKAS
DE - KREUZUNGSKALBER
IE - BEEF MALE
Series9
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
ES - TIPO CRUZADO
IT - MALES-BOUCHERIE
UK - BEEF BULLS
29
€ / Head
€ / Head
Male BEEF calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks
2010 / 2011 Evolution in prices :
(2b)
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
DE - SCHWARZBUNTE
IE - DAIRY MALE
Series3
DE - BRAUNVIEH
IT - MALES-LAITIERS-VITELLI
UK - DAIRY BULLS
ES - TIPO FRISON
NL - ROODBONT-NUKAS
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
FR - MALES-ENGRAISSEMENT
NL - ZWARTBONT-NUKAS
30
€ / Head
€ / Head
Male DAIRY calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (3)
Butcher calves (€/100 kg cw)
560
540
520
500
480
460
1
5
9
13
2004-2008 Avg
Price in week 5 :
% change y/y :
551,69
+ 2,9%
17
21
25
29
2009
33
37
41
2010
Average price in janvier 2011 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
% change y/y :
45
49
53
2011
550,04
+ 3,7%
31
Theoretical EU average
Margin Calculation for young bull production fed on basis of
a ratio of Cereals and Compoundfeed
350
300
€uro/ 100kg
250
200
150
100
50
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Margin
Feedcost
01
02
03
04
05
Price of A.R3
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
average margin '03 - 10
Feed conversion rate: 7kg feed = 1kg Carcase.
Feed composition: 40% compound feed, 25% barley, 15% corn, 20% wheat
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
32
Conclusion
Evolution in EU prices
Categories Global View (€/100 kg cw)
A R3
360
C R3
D O3
E R3
335
310
285
260
235
210
2007
2008
2009
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011
2010
2011
33