Transcript EU beef and veal market A brief overview and some

Review of the situation on the
EU Beef and Veal Market
"Single CMO" Management Committee
20 September 2010
Percentual change in Adult Cattle Slaughter
Period: Jan - July
Year: 2010 / 2009
12.5%
0.0%
-12.5%
-25.0%
DGBEAGRI,
– LV
20 LT
September
2010
BG CZ European
DK DE EE EI Commission
EL ES FR IT CY
LU HU MT NL
ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK
EU
2
Change in Veal Slaughter
(Calves & Young Cattle)
Jan. - July 2009 / Jan. - July 2010
120,000
105,000
90,000
75,000
Jan. - July. '09
60,000
Jan. - July. '10
45,000
30,000
15,000
0,000
BE
BG
CZ
DK
DE
EE
EI
EL
ES
FR
IT
CY
LV
LT
LU
HU
MT
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
NL
ÖS
PL
PT
RO
SI
SK
SF
SE
UK
3
EU exports of beef and live animals (1):
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
2006
Destinations
tonnes
Russia
2007
%
145 342 49.7%
Switzerland
tonnes
2008
%
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
Jan-Jul 10
%
tonnes
%
87 277 35.2% 102 368 35.1%
50 660 20.4%
49 664 26.2%
10 162
3.5%
14 457
5.8%
25 965
8.9%
19 061
7.7%
13 846
7.3%
Croatia
9 723
3.3%
16 460
6.6%
19 919
6.8%
24 905 10.0%
11 765
6.2%
Ivory coast
4 938
1.7%
6 949
2.8%
8 969
3.1%
13 380
5.4%
6 600
3.5%
Angola
8 628
3.0%
11 087
4.5%
7 775
2.7%
7 488
3.0%
1 932
1.0%
172
0.1%
16 174
6.5%
2 265
0.8%
167
0.1%
54
0.0%
Nigeria
EXTRA EU 25/27 292 382
% change
247 730
291 622
248 199
189 547
- 15%
+ 18%
- 15%
+ 37.5%
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
4
EU exports of beef and live animals (2):
Trade figures (COMEXT)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000
EUR)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal
(Tonnes cwe)
458 530
160 000
93 627
75 308
100 000
80 000
29 497
11 765
13 846
60 000
cw
120 000
14 247
11 121
346 753
140 000
74 268
9 562
16 061
349 423
Tonnes
137 902
140 678
20 000
400 000
190 895
300 000
148 110
200 000
38 263
40 782
150 000
50 092
48 565
110 840
42 664
75 708
97 537
Jan-Jul 08
Jan-Jul 09
Jan-Jul 10
54 841
100 000
0
Jan-Jul 08
Jan-Jul 09
Jan-Jul 10
350 000
250 000
40 000
49 664
500 000
450 000
180 000
163 929
60 208
200 000
1,000 EUR
189 547
50 000
0
Russia
Switzerland
Croatia
Russia
Switzerland
Croatia
Algeria
Lebanon
Other destinations
Algeria
Lebanon
Other destinations
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
5
Exports of BEEF products
40 000
35 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
in Tonnes cwe
30 000
10 000
5 000
0
|
Jan06
2006
|
Jan07
LIVE ANIMALS
2007
|
Jan08
FRESH
2008
FROZEN
|
Jan09
2009
PREPARED
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
|
Jan10
OTHERS
6
EU exports of beef and live animals (3):
Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe)
Live
animals
Fresh
beef
Frozen
beef
Tinned
beef
Offals
Total
Jul 09 - Aug 09
1 950
7 652
2 781
0
0
12 383
Jul 10 - Aug 10
3 547
14 128
9 298
0
0
26 973
Evolution per category (tonnes cwe)
Evolution in export structure (% share)
100%
180000
160000
2004/05
140000
2005/06
80%
60%
2006/07
120000
2007/08
100000
40%
2008/2009
80000
Jul 10 - Aug 10
20%
60000
40000
0%
20000
2004/05
0
Live anim als
Fresh beef
Frozen beef
Offal
Tinned beef
2005/06
Live animals
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
2006/07
Fresh beef
2007/08
2008/09
Frozen beef
Offal
2009/2010
Jul 10 Aug 10
Tinned beef
7
EU imports of beef and live animals (1):
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
Origins
2006
tonnes
Brazil
2007
%
tonnes
2008
%
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
Jan-Jul 10
%
331 762 64.7% 363 839 65.4% 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6%
tonnes
%
84 051
36.7%
Argentina
82 865 16.1%
97 656 17.6%
92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4%
51 804
22.6%
Uruguay
45 350
8.8%
39 544
7.1%
66 402 16.8%
79 144 18.4%
45 401
19.8%
7 195
1.4%
5 756
1.0%
12 455
3.2%
15 783
3.7%
9 609
4.2%
956
0.2%
2 746
0.5%
6 547
1.7%
9 609
2.2%
7 591
3.3%
Botswana
7 118
1.4%
13 929
2.5%
10 395
2.6%
11 452
2.7%
7 962
3.5%
Namibia
8 063
1.6%
10 467
1.9%
10 348
2.6%
12 457
2.9%
8 041
3.5%
12 366
2.4%
10 019
1.8%
12 957
3.3%
16 937
3.9%
6 673
2.9%
Switzerland
1 979
0.4%
2 855
0.5%
2 919
0.7%
4 394
1.0%
2 396
1.0%
Serbia
1 912
0.4%
2 324
0.4%
1 784
0.5%
990
0.2%
641
0.3%
Chile
2 036
0.4%
2 844
0.5%
2 550
0.6%
3 158
0.7%
706
0.3%
New Zealand
USA
Australia
EXTRA EU 25/27513 160
% change
556 024
395 063
431 182
229 232
+ 8%
- 29%
+ 9%
- 9.7%
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
8
EU imports of beef and live animals (2):
Trade figures (COMEXT)
IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU
(Tonnes cwe)
300 000
242 783
19 953
253 966
25 830
In
150 000 T o n n e s
cwe
51 804
45 119
45 401
50 000
82 751
84 051
Jan-Jul 09
Jan-Jul 10
98 304
941 470
139 160
900 000
700 000
270 671
317 069
281 191
600 000
in
1000
EUR
500 000
194 488
185 057
322 062
172 964
400 000
300 000
200 000
240 511
273 599
Jan-Jul 09
Jan-Jul 10
100 000
0
0
Jan-Jul 08
1 000 000
800 000
100 000
115 845
930 939
250 000
200 000
70 767
52 639
936 598
75 568
229 232
31 695
47 594
IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU
(1000 EUR)
Jan-Jul 08
Brazil
Uruguay
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Argentina
Australia
New Zealand
Other destinations
Australia
New Zealand
Other destinations
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
9
Imports of BEEF products
60 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
in Tonnes cwe
50 000
10 000
0
|
Jan06
2006
FRESH
|
Jan07
2007
|
Jan08
FROZEN
2008
|
Jan09
PREPARED
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
2009
|
Jan10
OTHERS
10
Jan 05
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
Jul 10
Jun 10
May 10
Apr 10
Mar 10
Feb 10
Jan 10
Dec 09
Nov 09
Oct 09
Sep 09
Aug 09
Jul 09
Jun 09
May 09
Apr 09
Mar 09
Feb 09
Jan 09
Dec 08
Nov 08
Oct 08
Sep 08
Aug 08
Jul 08
Jun 08
May 08
Apr 08
Mar 08
Feb 08
Jan 08
Dec 07
Nov 07
Oct 07
Sep 07
Aug 07
Jul 07
Jun 07
May 07
Apr 07
Mar 07
Feb 07
Jan 07
Dec 06
Nov 06
Oct 06
Sep 06
Aug 06
Jul 06
Jun 06
May 06
Apr 06
Mar 06
Feb 06
Jan 06
Dec 05
Nov 05
Oct 05
Sep 05
Aug 05
Jul 05
Jun 05
May 05
Apr 05
Mar 05
Feb 05
EU beef imports from Brazil
Trade figures (COMEXT data – tonnes cwe)
40 000
Fresh Boneless
Frozen Boneless Other
Corned Beef
35 000
Prepared Cooked Bovine
TOTAL
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
11
EU net import of beef and live animals
1 400
1 263
IMPORTS
1 171
EXPORTS
1 200
1 120
1 028
1 000
825
800
598
491
452
446
403
401
436
429
ne
T on
598
529
513
481
455
565
0
10 0
736
600
556
513
398
395
431
400
352
292
292
248
248
229
190
200
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
2007
2008
2009
JanJul 10
12
Evolution in EU carcass prices (1):
Carcasses of adult male bovines (A/C price – €/100 kg cw)
€/100 kg cwe
% of Reference Price
334
150%
311
140%
289
130%
267
120%
245
110%
2010
2009
2008
2003-2007 Avg
100%
222
1
5
9
13
17
Price in week 36 :
% change y/y :
% Reference Price in week 36 :
21
25
314.6
+ 1.7%
141.5%
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
312.2
% change y/y : + 0.8%
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
13
Evolution in EU carcass prices (2):
Young bull carcasses (A R3 – €/100 kg cw)
350
2003-2007 Avg
2008
2009
2010
325
300
275
1
5
9
13
Price in week 36 : 314.32
% change y/y : + 0.2%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
Average price in August 2010 :
% change y/y :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
45
49
53
310.89
- 0.8%
14
Evolution in EU carcass prices (3):
Steer carcasses (C R3 – €/100 kg cw)
360
2003-2007 Avg
340
2008
2009
2010
320
300
280
260
1
5
9
Price in week 36 :
% change y/y :
13
307.77
+ 2.6%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
% change y/y :
45
49
53
309.24
+ 2.8%
15
Evolution in EU carcass prices (4):
Cow carcasses (D O3 – €/100 kg cw)
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
2003-2007 Avg
2008
2009
2010
200
1
5
9
Price in week 36 :
% change y/y :
13
235.12
+ 3.3%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
% change y/y :
45
49
53
234.92
+ 1.0%
16
Evolution in EU carcass prices (5):
Heifer carcasses (E R3 – €/100 kg cw)
340
2003-2007 Avg
2008
2009
2010
330
320
310
300
290
1
5
9
13
Price in week 36 : 322.81
% change y/y : + 5.4%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
% change y/y :
45
49
53
318.19
+ 4.0%
17
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (1)
Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)
240
2003-2007 Avg
2008
2009
2010
230
220
210
200
190
1
5
9
Price in week 36 :
% change y/y :
13
211.66
+ 1.7%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
% change y/y :
45
49
53
209.32
- 0.7%
18
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (2)
Male calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)
260
2003-2007 Avg
240
2008
2009
2010
220
200
180
160
140
1
5
9
Price in week 36 :
% change y/y :
13
190.87
+ 7.8%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
206.65
% change y/y : + 13.2%
19
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (3)
Butchers calves (€/100 kg cw)
650
600
2003-2007 Avg
2008
2009
2010
550
500
450
400
1
5
9
Price in week 36 :
% change y/y :
13
509.30
+ 1.1%
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
Average price in August 2010 :
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
% change y/y :
45
49
53
494.84
+ 0.8%
20
Theoretical EU average
Margin Calculation for young bull production fed on basis of
a ratio of Cereals, Soja and Compoundfeed
350
300
€uro/ 100kg
250
200
150
100
50
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Margin
Feedcost
01
02
03
04
05
Price of A.R3
DG AGRI, European Commission – 20 September 2010
06
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
average margin '02 - 09
21