Transcript Shippers’ Meeting 18 November 2004

Shippers’ Meeting 18 November 2004
Sheraton - Amsterdam
16.07.2015
Program
-
Introduction
Long Term Planning
Invoicing
Tolerance Service 2005
Quality Conversion
Miscellaneous
Lunch
Willem Faber
Piet Nienhuis
Karl Vogel
Paula Olthof
Tineke v.d. Meij
Tineke v.d. Meij
Program
-
Introduction
Long Term Planning
Invoicing
Tolerance Service 2005
Quality Conversion
Miscellaneous
Lunch
Willem Faber
Piet Nienhuis
Karl Vogel
Paula Olthof
Tineke v.d. Meij
Tineke v.d. Meij
GTS annual Long Term Planning cycle
Feedback
and kick-off
Identify grid
bottlenecks
April
April
NovemberApril
Feedback
results
November
May
August/
September
Interview
Send out
questionnaires
Receive
questionnaires
MayJulyAugust
NNOs
Analyze
questionnaires
Juni
Interview
shippers
The Process
Some statistics
 After the kick-off meeting in April and our request to shippers
to contact GTS, only 2 shippers reacted. GTS initiated other
contacts
 GTS had contact with 21 shippers
 From these, GTS held meetings with 16 shippers during
May/June/July
 13 completed questionnaires were returned
 GTS had meetings with 5 NNOs during August/September
Long Term Planning
Purpose :
To keep GTS transmission system fit for the future
Challenge :
Lack of reliable planning information caused by a tendency
towards short term contracts and involvement of more
parties
Solution :
Collect planning information from shippers and NNOs after
contract period
Network load determined by four types of gas flows
Netherlands
Neighbouring
countries
Supply
Transport
Demand
NL production
and demand
Import
Export
Transit
Scenario I : low import and low transit
Norwegian gas
Russian gas
LNG
Middle-East gas
Scenario II : high import and high transit
Norwegian gas
Russian gas
LNG
Middle-East gas
The interviews
Some observations
 Almost all shippers share the same view on the scenarios
 Scenario I (low import/low transit) is thought to be the most
likely one for the short term (till 2008) while scenario II (high
import/high transit) is the most likely scenario for the longer
term
 Shippers were not always able to make a distinction between
entry points : they usually speak about “the Emden – Bunde
area”; the data presented in the next slides should be
interpreted bearing this in mind
Conclusions of the 2004 LT planning process
Balgzand:
Entry as a result from
NOGAT connection with
Danish fields
Emden/Oude Statenzijl:
Clear interest for
additional entry capacity
Julianadorp:
Entry and exit as a result
from connections with
Bacton and OSZ
Zelzate:
Interest for bidirectional capacity
Zandvliet-H:
Additional exit point to
supply local Belgian Hgas market
Winterswijk/Zevenaar:
No significant interest
for entry capacity
‘s Gravenvoeren/Bocholtz
/Hilvarenbeek:
No significant interest,
entry nor exit
Scenario I : medium import and transit flows
Entry
Emden
13/13/14
Entry
Balgzand
1/1/0
Total Entries for Import
and Transit1/2): 26/29/29
1)
Only major volumes
shown
2)
Currently known long
term import and
transit contracts
included
Entry
Zelzate
3/2/2
Entry Oude
Statenzijl
8/12/13
Exit
Julianadorp
0/12/12
Exit Zelzate
/Zandvliet
2/2/2
Annual volumes shown apply for 2006/2009/2012
Unit : mrd m3 [35,17]
Entry
Winterswijk/
Zevenaar
0/0/0
Entry Bocholtz/
‘s Gravenvoeren
0/0/0
Scenario II : high import and transit flows
Entry
Emden
13/15/16
Entry
Balgzand
2/3/3
Total Entries for Import
and Transit1/2): 27/39/45
1)
Only major volumes
shown
2)
Currently known long
term import and
transit contracts
included
Entry
Zelzate
3/2/3
Exit
Julianadorp
0/12/12
Exit Zelzate
/Zandvliet
2/7/7
Annual volumes shown apply for 2006/2009/2012
Unit : mrd m3 [35,17]
Entry Oude
Statenzijl
8/18/20
Entry
Winterswijk/
Zevenaar
0/1/2
Entry Bocholtz/
‘s Gravenvoeren
0/0/1
Comparison of scenarios
Scenario I : Low import/transit
2006
2009
2012
Entry Emden
13
13
14
Entry Oude Statenzijl
8
12
13
Entry Winterswijk/Zevenaar
0
0
0
Entry Bocholtz/s Gravenvoeren
0
0
0
Entry Zelzate
3
2
2
Exit Zelzate/Zandvliet
2
2
2
Entry Balgzand
1
1
0
Total Entry for Import and Transit
26
29
29
Scenario II : High import/transit
2006
2009
2012
13
15
16
8
18
20
0
1
2
0
0
1
3
2
3
2
7
7
2
3
3
27
39
45
Norwegian Gas Infrastructure
Norne
Heidrun
Statfjord
Å s ga r
d Tran
spo
rt
Åsgard
Gullfaks
Troll
Tjeldbergodden
Europipe I
~ 44 MSm3/d
Europipe II
~ 68 MSm3/d
(expected capacity from 2005)
Kollsnes
Oseberg
Norpipe
~ 43 MSm3/d
(including compression in Norpipe)
Frigg
st
Ve
e
Sum Germany
Kårstø
d
rle
~ 155 MSm3/d
Draupner
Sleipner
St. Fergus
o
Eur
op
II
r
Eu
pipe
Ekofisk
e
ip
I
No
e
ip
rp
Franpipe
Zeepipe
Zeebrügge
Dunkerque
Emden/Dornum area
Dornum
Emden
Pipelines in the Emden/OSZ area
EP 1
EP 2
NP
Dornum
ERF
Uithuizen
82
Spijk
8
EMS
NPT
Krummhörn
2
2
Etzel
Emden
Rysum
8
Acrobat document
Nüttermoor
2
Groningen
8Bunder-Tief 2
8
Folmhusen
8
8
Oude Statenzijl
Grijpskerk
Noordbroek
NL
Warde
D
8
10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Emden
0
2012
Scenario III
Scenario II
Scenario I
Scenario III
Scenario II
Scenario I
Scenario III
50
Scenario II
Scenario I
Annual Volumes [mrd m3 GE]
Norwegian Volumes to Emden and Dornum
60
Pipeline Ullage
40
Dornum
30
20
Conclusions LT planning 2004
Conclusions from shippers

Large amounts of gas will
enter GTS grid in the
Emden/OSZ area

Entry flows from south
decrease

Exit flows SW NL increase for
local Belgian market
(Zandvliet-H) and further
transit; also increased
interest in Dutch domestic HiCal exit capacity
Conclusions from NNOs




Gassco has some options to
increase capacity to
Emden/Dornum but insufficient
to support all GTS shippers
indications
Additional gas in Emden to NL
must be Norwegian gas
swapped with Russian gas in
Northern Germany
German NNOs state that they
are able to transport large
volumes to OSZ with relatively
moderate investments in their
transmission systems
Flows south NL recognized by
Fluxys
Consequences
 Large investments required to accommodate indicated
capacities, order of magnitude between € 100 and € 400
mln
 However, just indications, no commitments (yet)
 Insufficient ground for investments
 How do we continue ?
Open Season - 1
 GTS will collect commitments in an open season
procedure
 GTS may decide to develop capacity
 GTS will start formal procedure early 2005
 Main characteristics :
 Hi-cal
 NE entry points: Emden, Bunde (OSZ), possibly others
 SW exit points: Zelzate, Zandvliet-H, other domestic
exits
 both domestic and border points
 capacity available >= 2009
Open Season - 2
 Planning
Commitments of both shippers and GTS in 2005
 Capacity allocation
Basis is normal two step procedure :
upgrading interruptible, followed by new booking
requests
 For capacity within scope of open season project
 step 1 : only interruptible bookings based on
requests before 18 November 2004 are eligible for
upgrading
 step 2 : new booking requests will be replaced by
commitments in open season
Open Season - 3
 Possible ullage will be sold according to normal
procedures
 Options may be offered to the market, even with
respect to the points included in the scope of the
project
 Such options will not relate to capacity to be realised
within the scope of the project, but may justify some
additional investment
Open Season - 4
 GTS will publish further details and invite shippers to
participate early next year thru the usual channels
(website, e-mail, letter)
Program
-
Introduction
Long Term Planning
Invoicing
Tolerance Service 2005
Quality Conversion
Miscellaneous
Lunch
Willem Faber
Piet Nienhuis
Karl Vogel
Paula Olthof
Tineke v.d. Meij
Tineke v.d. Meij
Status of invoicing
2002
Monthly
Fixed part
Finalized
(corrections due to avoidance
of penalties possible)
2003
Finalized
(corrections due to avoidance
of penalties possible)
Finalized
TTF
2004
Monthly invoice is up
to current date
Q1 and Q2 finalized
Fixed/usage part
Q3/Q4 to be finalized
as soon as possible
Monthly
Usage part
Finalized
(Last invoices are being
finalized)
To be finalized
Q4 2004
(70% finished)
Invoices starting Q2
2005
Other subjects
 Letters for “Recalculations of RNB 2003” sent to
shippers and LDCs to identify the outstanding
revisions (deadline 15 December 2004)
 Reconciliation (start foreseen Q1 2005, depending
on delivery of RNB data for reconciliation)
 Supplier invoicing: Peak supply (start Q4 2004)
Program
-
Introduction
Long Term Planning
Invoicing
Tolerance Service 2005
Quality Conversion
Miscellaneous
Lunch
Willem Faber
Piet Nienhuis
Karl Vogel
Paula Olthof
Tineke v.d. Meij
Tineke v.d. Meij
Contents

Tolerance Service 2004 overview

Tolerance Service 2005

Tender

Sales procedure
Tolerance Service 2004 overview (1)
December 2003:
 Annual Basic Tolerance Service
 whole year 2004
 shortage cap : excess cap = 1 : 1/3
 tolerance volume = 24 x shortage capacity
 Annual Tolerance Excess Capacity Service
 whole year 2004
 additional to Annual Basic Tolerance Service
 upgrade tolerance excess capacity to 1:1
 Half Year Tolerance Service
 second half year of 2004
Tolerance Service 2004 overview (2)
July 2004:
 Additional Basic Tolerance Service:
 August 1st 2004 – December 31st 2004
Tolerance Service 2005
GTS has the intention to offer tolerance services 2005:
 Ingredients:
 shortage capacity (incl. 1/x excess capacity)
 where x between 1/3 and 1/2
 tolerance volume 24 x shortage capacity
 Different periods
 4 times a year possibility to buy from GTS
 Jan-Dec; Apr-Dec; Jun-Dec; Okt-Dec
 Aim at more suppliers
Tender
 Fase 1: preselection of potential suppliers (5x)
 Fase 2: master agreement (3x)
 agreement fixed for whole year
 amount/price is fixed during bid per period
 Fase



3: first bid from supplier(s)
for period January – December 2005
ultimately 29-11-2004
one week sales window
Sales procedure
Supplier A
Price A1
Supplier B
Price B1
Supplier C
Price C1
GTS
Price A1
Price A2
Price B2
Price B3
Price C1
Price A2
Price B1
Price B2
Price B3
Sales procedure option 1: notary
Booking request form:
Price:
A1
C1
A2
B1
B2
B3
Amount:
…
…
…
…
…
...
 Option 1: notary
 Amount =
desired maximum amount
per price level
Example sales procedure option 1: notary
 Option 1: notary
Example:
Shippers A, B, C, D, E, filled in the booking request form
Notary sequence: E, D, A, C, B
Example sales procedure option 1: notary
Example:
Price
A1
C1
PRICE
AMOUNT
Shipper
E
D
A
C
B
200
100
300
100
300
200
500
100
200
200
A1
600
C1
600
A2
100 100
shipper
amount
E
200
D
300
A
300
C
100
Sales procedure option 2: pro rata
Booking request form:
Price:
A1
C1
A2
B1
B2
B3
Amount:
…
…
…
…
…
...
 Option 2: pro rata
 Amount =
desired maximum amount per
price level
 Total assigned amount =
limited to amount first level
Example sales procedure option 2: pro rata
Price
A1
C1
A1
C1
A1+C1
C1'
Shipper
A
B
C
D
E
200
0
300
150
400
250
400
400
200
100
1500
900
600
600
80
0
80
0
120
100
220
100
160
167
327
167
160
267
427
240
80
67
147
67
573
600
40%
67%
Sales procedure: which option ?
WHAT DO YOU PREFER ?
Option 1: notary
Option 2: pro rata
Program
-
Introduction
Long Term Planning
Invoicing
Tolerance Service 2005
Quality Conversion
Miscellaneous
Lunch
Willem Faber
Piet Nienhuis
Karl Vogel
Paula Olthof
Tineke v.d. Meij
Tineke v.d. Meij
Quality Conversion Q4 2004


QC sold out (announced earlier in 2004)
Indication of required QC capacity
GTS facilitates redistribution of QC capacity by:
a) Repurchase (letter LTF 04.0374, 15 Sept. 04)
- 3 shippers responded
- ‘neutral’ price
b) Capacity release (Letter LTF 04.0385 16 Sept. 04)
- possible to book per month
- normal tariff for QC
- 2 shippers booked initially
 Recently: last capacity booked  web site: zero
Secondary market: 6 trades for Q4 2004 of which
1 in September 2004, 5 end 2003/early 2004
Quality Conversion 2005 (1)
 2005: QC redistribution
- GTS will act as quantity manager
- Secondary market (trading of QC capacity)
 Repurchase
- Back to Back
- Shippers can offer QC capacity
- Letter LT 04.0605 d.d. 15 October 2004
- Neutral price as payable by shipper to GTS
- Some shippers replied before deadline 25 October
- Ultimately 1 December 2004 the amount to be
repurchased is known
Quality Conversion 2005 (2)
 Capacity Release
- Back to Back  GTS will only allow profiles
as offered to GTS
- Profile 1: full year 2005
- Profile 2: July/August 2005
- Bookings (special form) possible before
deadline of 24 November 10.00 LET
- Tariff according to TSC
Quality Conversion 2005 (3)

If more QC is requested for booking than available
 notary draw (per profile)
 Ultimately 1-12-2004 GTS informs each participating shipper
- on the amounts to be repurchased
or
- on the amounts booked
 Back to Back
 QC capacity available after process of repurchase/ capacity
release = zero  web site
Transition 2004  2005
 TSC 2005-2 published 29 October 2004
 Declaration of acceptance TSC 2005-2:
LTF 04.682 d.d. 29 October 2004
 Transition of booked services: LTF 04.xxx Nov. 2004
- list of ‘relevant services’
- interruptible tranches
- connection tariff
- pseudoGOS content
Miscellaneous
 Request for exemption publication information on border
points DTe.
 Letter LTF 04.0726 d.d. 3 November
 Deadline 19 November 2004
 VAT: change in legislation VAT tariff depending on permanent
establishment (Dutch: ‘vestigingsplaats’) of shipper.
 Letter this week, deadline 15 December 2004
 Deadline for booking requests: 17 December 2004
 Next Shippers’ Meeting: early 2005
 APX
Shippers’ Meeting
18 November 2004
Sheraton - Amsterdam
Thank you for your attention and enjoy your
lunch!