Transcript Food Security Analysis Unit

Gu 2011
Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Information for Better Livelihoods
17 August , 2011
Northwest
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for
Development and
Cooperation
SDC
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
Field staff had normal
access to all livelihoods
in the Northwest regions
in Gu 2011 Assessment
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and
Income
• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau,
Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban
Pastoralists)
 Primary sources of income of poor: sale
of livestock & livestock products
 Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
and own production
 Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,
sheep/goat
•
2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agro-pastoral)
 Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: are more pastoral, however there is an
increasing dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of
income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder
sales; Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase
 Northwest (W/Galbeed and Awdal) Agro-pastoral: are more
agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops,
livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production
and purchase.
Climate
Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance
Overall Statement: Localized normal rains impacting
positively rangeland and water resources in most
livelihoods of the regions.
Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011 )
• Start of Season: Started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in
most parts of the Northwest zone, and were intermittent
in May and June
•
Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and
distribution of the rainfall was average to poor in most
livelihoods of EastGoils, Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and
Hawd (Togdheer, Sanag and Sool regions). Regions with
some dry spells: Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer and parts
of West Golis of Awdal and W/Galbeed
•
Normal rains in livelihood zones: Most livelihoods
received localized normal rains ( 100-125mm)
•
Below normal rains in livelihood zones: West Sool
Plateau, western upper Nugal, central Nugal Valley and
southwestern part of Hawd of Togdheer (40-60mm)
•
Generally, pasture and water conditions are average in
most livelihoods
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term
mean)
Climate
Vegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation: Overall the
security situation in the Northwest Zone
remains stable.
Lasanod town: Tensions with increasing
instability and targeting killings of
prominent figures.
 Kalshaale and Ceel Berdaale issues of
land resources are diffused and peace
efforts are ongoing
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food
Security & Nutrition:
 Restricted movement of transport from
Burao to Buhoodle areas.
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Cereal Production
Gu-Karan Cereal Establishment Estimates (North-West)
Gu/Karan 2011 Production in MT
Gu-Karan 2011 Gu-Karan 2011 as % Gu-Karan 2011 as % of 5
as % of Guof Gu-Karan PWA
year average
Karan 2010
(1998-2010)
(2006-2010)
Regions
Maize
Sorghum
Total Cereal
Awdal
210
3,550
3,760
92%
122%
124%
Togdheer
20
320
340
10%
44%
28%
Woqooyi
Galbeed
420
12,800
13,220
33%
81%
63%
650
16,670
17,320
36%
86%
68%
TOTAL
Agriculture
Trends in Gu/Karan 2011 Crop Establishment Estimates
Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
MT
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Local
Cereal inflow from
Ethiopia
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(Sorghum)
- Increasing Trend
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade: Cereal
to Labor
9kg of white sorghum
/daily wage) in Jul ’11
versus 12kg in Jul ’10
- Decreasing Trend
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Hargeysa
Regional Trend in Cereal
Prices (Sorghum)
- Increasing Trend
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade: Cereal
to Labor
Kg of sorghum/
daily wage)
From 10kg in June’10
to 8kg in June’11
- Decreasing Trend
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock
Migration July ’11
 Average performance of Gu 2011 season in
most pastoral livelihoods resulted normal
pasture and water availability.
 Average livestock body conditions for all
species
 Below average milk production due to low
camel calving (high camel abortion in March
30-40%) and moderate increase in milk price
(10%) since June 2010
 Opportunistic livestock migration (parts of
Golis, Sool and Hawd
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Livelihoods
Northwest Hawd Pastoral
E.Golis/Gabi
Pastoral
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding
(Gu ‘11)
Camel: Low to
Medium
Sh/goat:
Medium
Camel: Low
Sh/goat: Low
Camel: Low to
Medium
Sh/goat:
Medium
Camel: Low
Sh/goat: Low to
Medium
Milk production
(Gu ‘11)
Below average
Below average
Expected
calving/ Kidding
Jul – Dec ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (% of baseline as
of Dec ‘11)
Camel: Low
Togdheer and Sool Camel: increased
Sh/goat: Medium same as baseline
to Low
Togdheer and Sool : Sh/goats:
Decrease below baseline
W/galbeed: Camel: Increased above
baseline
W/galbeed : Sh/goats; increased
above baseline
Camel: Low
Camel: increased above baseline
Sh/goat: Medium Sh/goats: Decreased below baseline
West Golis/Guban Camel: Medium
Sh/goat:
Medium
Camel: Low
Sh/goat: Medium
Below average
Camel: Medium
Camel: increased above baseline
Sh/goat: Medium Sh/goats: increased as baseline
Sool Pastoral
Camel: Low to
Medium
Sh/goat:
Medium
Camel: Low
Sh/goat: Low
Below average
Camel: Low
Camel: Insignificant for Poor HHs
Sh/goat: Medium Sh/goats: Decreased below baseline
Nugaal Valley
Pastoral
Camel: Medium Camel: Low
Sh/goat:
Sh/goat: Low
Medium
Below average
Camel: Low
Camel: Insignificant for Poor HHs
Sh/goat: Medium Sh/goats: decreased below baseline
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade:
Cereal to Goat
(Rice kg/head)
- Decreasing Trend
Livestock
Regional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo
Regional Trends in Goat Local
Quality Price and Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Goat Local
Quality
- Declining Trend
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate
NW: Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rate
12000
DIESEL 1 Litre
SUGAR 1 kg
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
RED RICE 1 kg
SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
Price per Unit (SLSh)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Month
Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months)
Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices:
•Appreciation of SLSh
•Increased global food prices
• Increased fuel prices
• Increased transit of imported commodities to neighboring Ethiopia
•Traders reluctant to reduce imported food prices respective to decline of US Dollar
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
0
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port
Cattle Exports
Shoats Exports
1,000
Hargesia Price
Burao Price
80
900
70
800
60
700
50
600
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
Month
Price Per Head (US$)
Livestock Exports (Heads) in Thousands
Camel Exports
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Livestock Carcass-Nugaal Ainabo, FSNAU, July 2011
Poor Pasture –Hawd Togdheer, FSNAU, July 2011
Good body & pasture condition, Hawd Harg, FSNAU July 2011
Poor Pasture –Nugal Valley,-Xudun, FSNAU July 2011
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Destitute HHs in Garadag- Nugaal Valley,
FSNAU, July 2011
Poor pasture –Sool Plateau, Ceerigabo,
FSNAU, July 2011
Good Sorghum- Beer Village –TogdheerFSNAU, July 2011
Summary of Nutrition Findings in NW Regions (Somaliland)
Region
Nutrition Surveys
(May– July 11)
West Golis/Guban
NW
GAM =22.0% ; SAM =5.0%
.
Nugal Valley
GAM=23.2% ; SAM= 6.7%
Sool Plateau
GAM= 15.9% ; SAM= 4.0%
East Golis
GAM= 12.8% ; SAM= 2.1%
NW Agro-pastoral
GAM= 11.5% ; SAM= 0.6%
Hawd of Hargeisa & Togdheer
GAM= 6.2% ; SAM= 0.3%
(FSNAU & partners, July11
R=1)
Burao IDP
GAM=19.1% ; SAM= 5.6%
Hargeisa IDP
GAM=10.9% ; SAM= 2.2%
Berbera IDP
GAM=14.5% ; SAM= 3.0%
(FSNAU & partners, May1
R=1)
Health
Information
System Info
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant information –
Key driving factors
HIS data show
mixed trends
across livelihoods
with high (1520%) and
increasing or
fluctuating
proportion of
acutely
malnourished
children reported
in facilities in
West Golis/
Guban, Sool and
Nugal livelihoods;
Low (<10%) and
decreasing or
stable trends in
East Golis, Hawd
and Agro-pastoral
livelihoods
( Source: SRCS ,
MOH, HIS Data ,
January- July11
R=3)
OTP admission
show mixed
trends, in the
number of
severely
malnourished
children admitted
in OTP –with high
and fluctuating
numbers in
facilities in West
Golis/ Guban,
Nugal, and Sool
livelihoods; And
low and
decreasing
numbers in
facilities in East
Golis, Hawd and
Agro-pastoral,
livelihoods
( Source: MOH,
Data , JanuaryJuly11 R=3)
Aggravating factors
-High morbidity – 20%-45%
reportedly ill two weeks prior to
assessment in all livelihoods
with exception of Agra-pastoral
(19.3%)
- AWD,measles dengue fever
outbreak in Sanag & W.
Galbeed
-Limited milk access due to low
livestock production and
drought-related out-migration of
livestock
-Limited humanitarian
assistance
-Poor child feeding practice and
health seeking behaviors
-Poor access to safe water,
health and sanitation facilities
-Increasing food prices
-Increased destitution
Mitigating factors
-Increased humanitarian
programmes in the region
(health & feeding facilities,
WASH)
-Child Health Days conducted in
the area in the months of June
2011
-Improved milk access in Hawd
(in-migrating livestock & local)
Strong social support
Summary of
analysis and change
from Deyr ’10/11
West Golis/Guban
and Nugal Valley
Very Criticaldeteriorated from
Serious in Deyr
’10/11
Sool Plateau
Critical –
deteriorated from
Alert in Deyr ’10/11
East Golis and NW
Agro-pastoral
Serious – No change
from Deyr ’10/11
Hawd Pastoral
Alert – Improved
from Serious in Deyr
’10/11
Hargeisa and Berbera
IDP
Serious- No change
from Deyr ‘10/11
Burao IDP
Critical- Deteriorated
from Serious in Deyr
’10/11
Northwest
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation Estimates,
April 2011
Nutrition Situation Estimates,
August 2011
Aggravating factors:
 Limited milk availability in most of the pastoral LHZs due to poor conceptions in Deyr 2010
 High morbidity - outbreak of measles and dengue fever and increased incidences of diarrhoea
in pastoral LHZs
 Inappropriate child feeding and care practices across livelihood
 Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs
 Lack of seasonal labour opportunities among the IDPs and reduced purchasing power affecting
food access
Mitigating factors:
 Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH)
 Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of June/July 2011
 Improved milk access in Hawd of W. Galbeed
NORTHWEST
Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes
Urban Population: Sool 100% P AFLC; Sanaag 75% P AFLC, 25%P HE, 25% M AFLC
Rural Population: Hawd (Togdheer and Sool) -100%P AFLC; Hawd (Hargeisa) -BFI;
Sool Plateau -75% P HE, 25% P AFLC; Nugaal Valley -50%P HE ; 50% P AFLC; East Golis
-100% P AFLC; Togdheer AP - BFI; Northwest Agropastoral -BFI; West Golis Guban-BFI
•
•
•
•
•
•
Acute malnutrition: Mixed trends with most livelihoods showing significant
deterioration while others indicating either sustained or improved situtaion.
West Golis and Nugal Valley livelihoods has significantly deteriorated from
Serious to Very Critical levels while Sool Plateau has declined from Serious
to Critical
Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day
Water Access: Average of 7.5-15 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only)
Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with
increasing pastoral destitution in mainly in Nugaal valley
Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water
expenses during prolonged Jilaal season
Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access
Main Contributing Factors:
•
Below normal rainfall in East-Golis, parts of Sool Plateau and Nugal valley
•
Livestock death in Hawd (Togdheer, Sool regions) , Nugal valley, Sool Plateau
and East-Golis and considerably reduced livestock holding among the poor
•
Sales of breeding animals among the poor HHs (Nugal, Sool, Hawd of
Togdheer) due to lack of saleable animals
•
Poor milk production (camel) in all pastoral areas of Togdheer, Sool and
Sanaag regions as a result of high rate of miscarriages during harsh Jilaal
season
•
Reduced household income from livestock and livestock product (milk) sales
•
Decline in terms of trade of local goat/cereals (119kg/head in June 2010 to
58kg in June 2011)
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation
NORTHWEST
Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihoods
Estimated Population
of Affected Livelihood
Zones
NW Region Affected Livelihood Zones
Awdal
NW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle
Fishing
Golis Pastoral
Guban Pastoral
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and
Acute Food and
Humanitarian
Humanitarian
Livelihood Crisis
Livelihood Crisis
Emergency (HE)
Emergency (HE)
(AFLC)
(AFLC)
Sub-total
76,159
1,149
74,592
42,612
194,513
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-total
1,437
67,455
70,830
70,191
209,913
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-total
23,698
223,347
11,984
19,864
278,893
0
14,000
2,000
0
16,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
57,000
2,000
0
59,000
0
0
2,000
0
2,000
Sub-total
15,193
56,596
30,415
37,396
7,052
61,347
6,289
214,288
0
8,000
4,000
3,000
0
10,000
0
25,000
0
0
0
0
0
10,000
6,000
16,000
0
20,000
8,000
6,000
0
5,000
0
39,000
0
0
0
6,000
0
15,000
6,000
27,000
30,108
72,608
7,697
730
111,143
1,008,750
2,000
5,000
2,000
0
9,000
50,000
0
0
1,000
1,000
2,000
18,000
8,000
10,000
1,000
0
19,000
117,000
0
11,000
2,000
1,000
14,000
43,000
Woqooyi Galbeed
Fishing
Golis Pastoral
Hawd Pastoral
NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle
Togdheer
Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel
Hawd Pastoral
Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel
Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle
Sanaag
Fishing
Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel
Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats
Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel
Potato Zone & Vegetables
Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral
Destitute pastoralists
Sool
Hawd Pastoral
Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel
Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral
Destitute pastoralists
Sub-total
GRAND TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
68,000
160,00
NORTHWEST
Rural Population in Crisis by Districts
NW Regions Affected
Districts
Awdal
Baki
Borama
Lughaye
Zeylac
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
16,923
132,695
22,094
22,801
194,513
Sub-total
Woqooyi Galbeed
Berbera
18,683
Gebiley
53,717
Hargeysa
137,513
Sub-total
209,913
Togdheer
Burco
191,748
Buuhoodle
28,821
Owdweyne
30,924
Sheikh
27,400
Sub-total
278,893
Sanaag
Ceel Afweyn
53,638
Ceerigaabo
83,748
Laasqoray/Badhan
76,902
Sub-total
214,288
Sool
Caynabo
24,026
Laas Caanood
50,606
Taleex
20,983
Xudun
15,528
Sub-total
111,143
Grand Total
1,008,750
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and
Acute Food and
Humanitarian
Humanitarian
Livelihood Crisis
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Emergency (HE)
Emergency (HE)
(AFLC)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12,000
2,000
2,000
0
16,000
0
0
0
0
0
45,000
7,000
7,000
0
59,000
2,000
0
0
0
2,000
5,000
6,000
14,000
25,000
1,000
4,000
11,000
16,000
12,000
15,000
12,000
39,000
5,000
7,000
15,000
27,000
2,000
4,000
2,000
1,000
9,000
50,000
0
0
1,000
1,000
2,000
18,000
4,000
10,000
3,000
2,000
19,000
117,000
3,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
14,000
43,000
68,000
160,000
NORTHWEST
Urban Population in Crisis
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
UNDP 2005 Total
Population
UNDP 2005
Urban
Population
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitari
an
Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC or
HE as % of Urban
population
Baki
Borama
Lughaye
Zeylac
Sub-Total
Woqooyi Galbeed
25,500
215,616
36,104
28,235
305,455
8,577
82,921
14,010
5,434
110,942
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Berbera
Gebiley
Hargeysa
Sub-Total
Togdheer
60,753
79,564
560,028
700,345
42,070
25,847
422,515
490,432
0
0
0
0
Burco
Buuhoodle
Owdweyne
Sheikh
Sub-Total
288,211
38,428
42,031
33,625
402,295
96,463
9,607
11,107
6,225
123,402
Badhan
Ceel Afweyn
Ceerigaabo
Laasqoray
Sub-Total
55,000
65,797
114,846
34,724
270,367
Caynabo
Laas Caanood
Taleex
Xudun
Sub-Total
30,702
75,436
25,354
18,785
150,277
District
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC or
HE as % of Urban
population
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,322
12,159
31,098
5,500
56,079
2,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
18,000
2,000
3,000
7,000
1,000
13,000
55
58
55
55
55
3,000
5,000
13,000
2,000
23,000
1,000
1,000
3,000
1,000
6,000
55
49
51
55
52
6,676
24,830
4,371
3,257
39,134
3,000
12,000
2,000
2,000
19,000
0
0
0
0
0
45
48
46
61
49
3,000
12,000
2,000
2,000
19,000
0
0
0
0
0
45
48
46
61
49
Awdal
Sanaag
Sool
The End