Transcript Housing and Older People in Australia: Now and the Coming Decades

Housing and Older People in
Australia:
Now and the Coming Decades
Presentation to Resthaven
Andrew Beer
University of Adelaide
[email protected]
Agenda
• The changing relationship between housing
and the life course in Australia
• Housing and older Australians
• Where to next?
Housing Careers
• The sequence of housing you occupy through your
life course. Measured in terms of the ‘household’.
• More recently, David Clapham’s (2002; 2004; 2005)
perspectives on housing pathways – a greater focus
on the meaning of home.
• Conventionally
– Leave home
– Marry and enter home ownership, soon followed by arrival
of first child
– Stay in the family home – maybe with one move
– Move to a retirement village or die at home
Housing Careers
The Housing Career ‘Ladder”
'Down'
moves
'Up'
moves
Outright owner
Mortgage paid
Second-time buyer
Two incomes
High wages
Savings
Subsidy
First-time buyer
Unemployment
Divorce
Personal problems
Public tenant
Moderate
income
Private tenant
First job
Living with parents
SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE
From Housing Careers to Housing
Transitions
• Idea that no longer a purposeful ‘ladder’ of
housing to ascend
• Greater level of movement to more or less
advantageous positions
• Great deal of lateral movement
Generations
• The Austerity Generation
– 1931-45
• The Baby Boomers
– 1946-1960
• Generation X
– 1961-1976
• Generation Y
– 1976-1991
Generation at the 2001 Census
Generation Label
The Austerity Generation
Baby Boomers
Generation X
Generation Y
Year of Birth
Before 1931
1931-1946
1946-1960
1961-1976
1977-1991
post 1991
Age
more than 74 years
55 to 74 years
40 to 54 years
25 to 39 years
10 to 24 years
under 10 years of age
Persons
1,710,291
2,420,329
4,004,987
4,154,821
3,902,926
2,575,895
18,769,249
Per Cent
9.1
12.9
21.3
22.1
20.8
13.7
100
What can life course perspectives on
housing tell us?
• Demand for housing for older people will grow
• Many of those in older age will be different
households compared with the past
– Not all outright owners
• 11% private tenants
• At significant risk in the private market, including
homelessness
– Impact of divorce and repartnering
– Some with greater levels of wealth through housing
– Significant but unequal impact of superannuation
What can life course perspectives on
housing tell us?
• Impact of disability
– Declining rates of mortality amongst the aged, but
rising rates of morbidity
• The ‘old old’ fastest growing population group in
Australia
– Providing care for others
– Desire to remain in the family home and age in
place
• Many female headed households worse off
– Gendered impact of divorce
What can life course perspectives on
housing tell us?
• Changing social values:
– Willingness to consume wealth in own lifetime
– Proximity to family members a more complex
issue
– More willing to move within older age
• Seachange/treechange migration often leads to churn
– May need to provide accommodation for own
children/grandchildren into advanced age
• Affects the type of housing will accept
Current Supply
• Most remain in the family home, even though
it may be inappropriate
• Retirement village industry remains small
– Current business models too confronting for many
– Costs are too high for many
– Limited non-private options
• Some older people assume access to
public/social housing that will simply not
eventuate
Where to Next?
• The demographic imperatives cant be denied
– By 2050 the aged population will double to 25% of the
Australian population
– The ageing of the population will be responsible for
half of new housing construction over the coming
decades
– Mainstream planning will need to focus on the needs
of the aged – eg TODs
– Supply of purpose built aged housing will increase, but
it will not be sufficient to match demand
– Women and those on low incomes will be the most
vulnerable
Where to Next?
• Housing needs of the aged population will also
bring other needs:
– Impact of social isolation
– Need for transport and other services
– Demand for financial planning
– Staffing