Future Science and Technology Needs of the Air Force, Dr
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Transcript Future Science and Technology Needs of the Air Force, Dr
Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Technology Horizons:
Vision for Air Force Science & Technology
During 2010-2030
Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm
(Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force
Air Force Pentagon (4E130)
Washington, D.C.
25 March 2011
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1
Ten Technical Directorates Comprise
the Air Force Research Laboratory
Directed
Energy
Materials &
Manufacturing
AFOSR
Munitions
Space
Vehicles
Sensors
Human
Effectiveness
Air Vehicles
Information
Propulsion
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Distribution of Air Force S&T Funding
Among Technical Directorates
$1.9B Direct AFRL funds
+ $2.2B Customer funds
+ 324M Congress adds
$4.5B total AFRL
6.1, 6.2, 6.3
Amounts shown are
$2B/yr Air Force core
funds; does not include
$2B/yr customer funds
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U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons”
SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter
Terms of Reference (TOR)
4
Overview of Air Force S&T Visions
1
3
6
7
Toward New
Horizons
(1945)
Project
Forecast
(1964)
New World
Vistas
(1995)
Technology
Horizons
(2010)
High-impact studies
2
4
5
Woods Hole
Summer Study
(1958)
New
Horizons II
(1975)
Project
Forecast II
(1986)
Low-impact studies
1940s
1
1950s
2
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
3
4
5
6
2010+
2000s
7
“Technology Horizons” is the next in the succession of major S&T
vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level that
define key S&T investments over the next 10-20 years
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5
“Technology Horizons” Study Phases
Mar 09
Jun 09
Oct 09
Dec 09
Feb 2010
“Technology Horizons”
2010+
Planning
Phase 1
Working
Phase 2
Working
Phase 3
Working
Phase 4
Implementation
Phase 5
Objectives,
Tasking, and
Organization,
Air, Space, Cyber
Domain Working
Groups
Cross-Domain
Working
Group
Findings,
Conclusions &
Recommendations
Dissemination of
Results and
Implementation
Report and Outbrief
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6
10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process
Cross-Domain
STEP 2
STEP 1
10-Years-Forward
Science & Technology
Projection
Air
10-Years-Forward
Capabilities
Projection
Capabilities
Today
S&T
Advances
in 10 Years
Resulting
Capabilities
in 20 Years
(2010)
(2020)
(2030)
10-Years-Back
Science & Technology
Investment Need
10-Years-Back
Counter-Capability
Technology Need
STEP 4
STEP 3
Future U.S.
Capabilities
Space
Cyber
Potential
Adversary
Capabilities
Cyber
U.S.
CounterCapabilities
Space
Air
Cross-Domain
“10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view
7
Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030
from “Technology Horizons”
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Overarching Themes That Will Vector
Air Force S&T During 2010-2030
9
Potential Capability Areas (1/2)
PCA1:
Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems
PCA2:
Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments
PCA3:
Decision-Quality Prediction of Behavior
PCA4:
Augmentation of Human Performance
PCA5:
Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training
PCA6:
Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems
PCA7:
Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization
PCA8:
Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations
PCA9:
Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied Environments
PCA10:
Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure Communications
PCA11:
Persistent Near-Space Communications Relays
PCA12:
Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors
PCA13:
High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR Airships
PCA14:
Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike Systems
PCA15:
Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems
Potential Capability Areas (2/2)
PCA16:
Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply
PCA17:
Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters
PCA18:
Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft
PCA19:
Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines
PCA20:
Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems
PCA21:
Penetrating Persistent Long-Range Strike
PCA22:
High-Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile
PCA23:
Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage Munitions
PCA24:
Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense
PCA25:
Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions
PCA26:
Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch
PCA27:
Rapidly Composable Small Satellites
PCA28:
Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems
PCA29:
Persistent Space Situational Awareness
PCA30:
Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction
Mapping Potential Capability Areas to
Air Force Service Core Functions
Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs)
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Technology Areas Identified for Each
Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1)
PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems
Ad hoc networks
Autonomous systems
Virtual machine architectures
Autonomous reasoning
Agile hypervisors
Resilient autonomy
Polymorphic networks
Collaborative/cooperative control
Agile networks
Decision support tools
Pseudorandom network recomposition
Automated software generation
Laser communications
Distributed sensing networks
Secure RF links
Sensor data fusion
Frequency-agile RF systems
Signal identification and recognition
Spectral mutability
Cyber offense
Dynamic spectrum access
Cyber defense
Quantum key distribution
Cyber resilience
Complex adaptive distributed networks
Advanced computing architectures
Complex adaptive systems
Complex environment visualization
Complex system dynamics
Massive analytics
V&V for complex adaptive systems
Automated reasoning and learning
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Dramatically Increased Use of Highly
Adaptable Autonomous Systems
Capability increases, manpower efficiencies,
and cost reductions are possible through far
greater use of autonomous systems
Increase in degree of autonomy and range of
systems and processes where autonomous
reasoning and control can be applied
Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain
operational advantages over adversaries
using human planning and decision loops
S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly
adaptible autonomous systems is a key to
enabling this transformation
Potential adversaries may gain benefits from
fielding such systems without any burden of
establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”
As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such
autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead
in developing the underlying S&T basis
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High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE)
Unconventional Air Vehicle Systems
New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE)
and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years
Delicate lightweight structures can survive
low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen
Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight
batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems
Large airships containing football field size
radars give extreme resolution/persistence
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
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Augmentation of Human Performance
to Better Match Users With Technology
Natural human capacities are becoming
increasingly mismatched to data volumes,
processing capabilities, and decision speeds
that are offered or demanded by technology
S&T to augment human performance will be
needed to gain benefits of new technologies
May come from increased use of autonomous
systems, improved man-machine interfaces,
or direct augmentation of humans
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Technologies to Enable Freedom of
Operations in Contested Environments
S&T advances are needed in three key areas
to enable increased freedom of operations in
contested or denied environments
Basic and early applied research are needed
to support development of these capabilities
Technologies for increased cyber resilience
Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in
GPS-denied environments
e.g., massive virtualization, highly
polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors
e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate)
INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks
Technologies to support dominance in
electromagnetic spectrum warfare
e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral
mutability, advanced RF apertures
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Processing-Enabled Intelligent Sensors
Fractionated Composable UAV Systems
Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors
Current massive data flow from ISR platforms
is creating tremendous PED manpower need
Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing;
even more with Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS
Technologies needed to enable cueing-level
processing before data leaves the sensor
UAV system fractionation is a relatively new
architecture enabled by technology advances
Allows complete system to be separated into
functional elements cooperating as a system
Common platform having element-specific
payload enabled lower cost and attritability
Permits mission-specific composition of
systems from lower-cost common elements
Low levels of redundancy among elements
dramatically increases system survivability
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Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted Systems
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Other Top Potential Capability Areas
PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines
PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense
PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites
PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness
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Closing Remarks & Implementation
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