Transcript Cinema: P2P, VOD e Internet

Cinema and VOD in Italy
(and elsewhere)
Peter Kruger
pwk.it
Estoril, 21 November 2008
EUROPA DISTRIBUTION 2nd ANNUAL
CONFERENCE
Talking about convergence?
The Italian convergence environment 2007
2 Bn €
80
e-content
Cinema? It is
Video
60
IT
8 Bn €
20 Bn €
40
TLC
20
44 Bn €
pwk.it - VoD Italy
squeezed between very
large forces undergoing
strong and widespread
transformation
Investigating the future
of the movie industry
(and more broadly the
media industry) implies
understanding the
future of the whole
convergence pile
21 November 2008
Major forces in action
The whole ecosystem of communications is undergoing a wide transformation with the
user/consumer/individual as the main force driving such huge change
Business
users
Globalization
X-Y-Z…
generations
The future of
Communication
Customization
Regulatory &
Public Policy
?
Media
Aging
YOU
(me, he?)
Technology
Nomadic
Literally a Complex System: very hard to make any accurate forecast
The media industry is just a subset still at odds with the transformation occurring
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
Video over IP
• streaming
• VOD
• video download
• catch-up Tv
• progressive download
• P2PTV
• file sharing
• Videoconferencing
• peer-to-peer (P2P)
• Destraeming
• User generated content
(UGC)
• Webisode
• webcast
• multicast
• simulcast
• webTv
• IPTV
• Screencast
• Vodcast
• Swarming
• Broadcatching
• Peercast
• Vlog
In the long run all video will go IP
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
Video over IP in Italy
The Video over IP world is basically split in two very distinct environments.
Technology enables to centralize many management processes buth such
distinction should always be very carefully remembered
•
On line video - Employing the open nature of the Web to break barriers
The web (and its affiliates) is already a huge entertainment arena with
audiences comparables to traditional media. Still, as far as video is
concerned, no clear successful model of monetization has so far emerged
• The entertainment business is dominated primarily by large portalsaggregators offering marketing opportunities to rights holders and
developing ad placement
•
•
IPTV – Employing the flexibility of IP to bring “traditional” digital interactive tv to
the consumer
• It is enabling TLCs to enter the broadcast industry
• The business comes from very well defined models: VoD, nVoD, PVR,
nPVR, EPG
• So far this is the only environment where VoD generates sound revenue
Other. But let’s not forget about mobile and public display (not only dcinema)
•
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
Broadband development
Broadband development in Italy
lags behind most of Europe and
is experiencing very strong slow
done in 2008.
• 10.7M HH by mid 2008 (2%
growth) - 8.7M families (37%)
•11M families with no PC
•14M families with no BB
•70% families say no interest
(Beetween 2008)
ARPU non voice VAS
(Y € / user)
15.4%
22.8%
Very good news from the
broadband mobile evolution with
over 22M 3G users by ed 2007
and rapid growth of 3G VAS
91,5
74,5
2005
pwk.it - VoD Italy
105,6
2006
2007
21 November 2008
IPTV VOD in Italy
• IPTV adoption is beating most
expectations
• 650K HH by mid 2008
(Between 2008)
• Up ca. 100% in only 6 months
• Four major offers: Fastweb,
Telecom Italia, Tiscali, Wind
• VoD/user grows fast
The bad news:
• piracy of course!
• P2P of course, but just not as bad as often portraied
• regulatory dead lock (with repeated attempts to introduce
rules against P2P)
• the typical Italian issues: concentration in the media vs.
weakness of independent players  no strength/incentives
to move digital
• VOD users watch movies but not as much as would be
expected (prices plunge) 
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
On line VOD in Italy
So far the only realistic model of
monetization of video is on line ADV
(though still to be proven)
1001
801
The Italian on line environment is
developing slower than in other major EU
countries
Active monthly
users
Jan-07
Jan-08
20,25 Mni
24,3 Mni
Y Growth
601
401
+ 21%
201
Monthly
session/user
29
32
+ 10%
Monthly Time
spent /user
18h 36m
21h 45 m
+ 18,7%
1
2005
Bad news:
Strong slow down of on line
ad growth (35%  15% in
2008)
pwk.it - VoD Italy
2006
2007
2008E 2009E
News
Entertainment on line
Portali
Mobile TV
DTT e SAT
Classified
Search
Totale web
Confindustria 2008
21 November 2008
The broadcast media picture
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
Movies in the age of UCGs
• Internet tends to become the only repository for all video content
• While technology evolution tends to lower the entry cost for producers (even
users…), the Internet tends to lower the physical costs of distribution
• Cinema faces increasingly direct competition by other forms of video
entertainment
• The long tail promises more life and mobility to content (in space and in
performance) thanks to the proactive role played by uesrs
• But the long tail does not kill the Pareto Law (80-20), all it really implies is that
the competition for audience increases and so does the relative cost of ensuring
the success of a hit will (rule of marketing)
• So what is really Cinema? Primary use in theater and strong capacity to build
brands (actors, authors, themes, narrative cycles etc.)
• Cinema thrives if it preserves its capacity to set trends and influence other
forms of entertainment and discussion (personal, social etc.)
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
The on line movie life cycle
The current most promising opportunities for on line cinema are related to
building/testing projects, brands, audiences and performance
On line
(cross-media)
marketing
Community
development
proj dev-fundingpre-production-post
On line retail
theatrical
home video
tv
utente
finale
E-commerce
On line ADV
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
From Packaged Goods to
Conversational Media
Dictation
Conversation
– creator's dictation
of a highly produced
package of content
vs.
Platform
Distribution
– economic differentiation
based on the control of
distribution
Product
Perfection and Deliberation
– shipping a highly produced
package of media
Consumption
– "sit back media"
pwk.it - VoD Italy
– audience is the principal
author, and the conversation is
the content
vs.
– the architecture of the platform
is the key to differentiation and
success
vs. Service
Iteration and Speed
vs.
vs.
As told by John Battelle
– "perpetual beta"
Engagement
– "lean forward media"
21 November 2008
Digital content
Homevideo
Theatrical
cross-media mkt
On-line ADV
On-line retail
COMMUNITY
BRANDING
conversational audience
Free-to-air
Pay-tv
E-commerce
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
Scenarios for 2015
Last year IDATE carrieid out a scenario analysis of the communication ecosystem
Three scenarios for thee five major UE countries - IDATE, 2007
What’s your guess today?
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008
Q&A
Thx :-)
[email protected]
http://pwk.it
pwk.it - VoD Italy
21 November 2008