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Budak Dilli, General Directorate of Energy Affairs Ministry of Energy and Natural ResourcesTurkey TURKEY: Main Characteristics Of Energy Sector High demand increase rate High investment requirement Import Dependency High Energy Intensity Low Efficiency High efficiency gain potential Considerable potential of renewable sources Emerging Market 2 TURKEY – Primary Energy Demand Projection 250000 1000 TOE 200000 51000 150000 61000 100000 25000 50000 31000 80000 24000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Coal Petrol Rate of increase % 6,2 N. Gas Hydro 90 Mtep Other Renewables Nuclear 222 Mtep 3 INCREASING CONSUMPTION OC 18.000.000 AR 16.000.000 ŞUB 14.000.000 2002 12.000.000 10.000.000 KAS MART 8.000.000 2003 6.000.000 4.000.000 2.000.000 EK 2004 NİS 0 2005 EY MAY AĞ HAZ 2006 2007 TEM 4 R² = 0.92 ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION 19,000,000 AYLIK TÜKETİM (MWh) 18,000,000 17,000,000 16,000,000 15,000,000 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 2 9,000,000 TEM EKİM NİSAN EKİM 2008 OC2008 TEM NİSAN 2007 OC2007 TEM NİSAN OC2006 TEM EKİM NİSAN Poly. (gerçekleşen aylık tüketim) EKİM 2006 2005 OC2005 TEM EKİM NİSAN 2004 OC2004 TEM EKİM OC2003 TEM EKİM NİSAN EKİM gerçekleşen aylık tüketim NİSAN 2003 2002 OC2002 TEM NİSAN OC2001 TEM 2001 EKİM EKİM OC2000 NİSAN 2000 TEMMUZ EK NİS TEM AYLAR OC98 7,000,000 OC99 1999 1998 NİSAN 8,000,000 Electricity Demand Income Elasticity – European Countries consumption per capita [kWh / capita ] 100000 R2 = 0,7583 10000 Turkey 2005 1000 1 2020 10 GDP/capita [1000 US$ / capita ] 100 TURKEYElectrical Energy Demand Projection (2006-2020) 600 TWh 499 500 High Case Low Case 406 400 356 294 300 242 216 200 174,2 100 0 YIL 2006 2010 2015 2020 7 TURKEY: ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION COMPARISON (2001-2006) 120 % 97,6 100 80 60 43,4 40 27,2 22,1 20 9,5 8,2 OECD EU 27,6 11,4 0 (Kaynak: IEA) DÜNYA TÜRKİYE RUSYA ÇİN HİNDİSTAN BREZİLYA Enerji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü 8 - 20.0 Çin Kore 100.0 Türkiye İzlanda Hindistan İspanya İrlanda Brezilya Meksika Yunanistan Çek Cumhuriyeti Avustralya Portakiz Güney Afrika Finlandiya İtalya Hollanda AB-15 OECD toplam İngiltere ABD Yeni Zelanda Slovakya Fransa G7 Belçika Avusturya Polonya Japonya Kanada Rusya Federasyonu İsveç Danimarka Macaristan Norveç İşviçre % Değişim 1994-2004 % INCREASE IN ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 160.0 140.0 120.0 92.4 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1970:app.2000 MW -TODAY: 43000 MW, 1400 MW / YEAR 9 Electricity New capacity requirement (2020) Installed capacity in 2020 120000 Additional Capacity (MW) Existing Capacity (MW) High scenario 96 348 MW 100000 80 029 MW 80000 • ~ 56.000 MW additional capacity need Low scenario 55348 60000 40000 20000 • ~ 40.000 MW additional capacity need 39029 41000 41000 Low Demand High Demand 0 10 GAS SECTOR Natural Gas ConsumpNatural Gas Consumption in 2007: 35,5 bcm tion Forecast for 2008: 37,5 bcm Russia(West) 50,1% Nigeria 4,7% Algeria 14,6% Iran 16,0% Russia(Blue Stream) 14,6% Investments in Energy Sector Estimation up to 2020: Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution ~100 Billion $ Natural Gas…………………………...2,5 Billion $ Coal…………………………………….5 Billion $ Petroleum……………………………..16 Billion $ New Power plants, rehabilitation, Pipelines, Natural gas storage… 12 Prospects for Gas Demand mtoe 60 40 20 0 2005 2010 2020 12,31 17,3 26,51 Industry 6,04 11,79 13,65 Residential 3,97 7,82 11,12 Power Major Challenge: securıty of supply, sufficient gas suppy POLICIES Energy security New investments to cope with increasing demand Reduce import dependency, diversification Increase the utilisation of Local Sources Establishing Functioning markets based on competition Environmental sustainability : Renewable Energy: Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Solar, Biofuels Clean Coal Technologies, Carbon Capture & Storage Efficiency Increase Nuclear Energy (5000 MW until 2020) UNFCC (Turkey became a Party in 2004) 14 MILESTONES OF THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM Law No 3096 BOT Law (No 3996) BOO Law (No 4283) Electricity Strategy Market Paper Law (No 4628) Communique BSR regarding the Financial Settlement Establishment of EMRA Market opening 29 % Finalization of generation privatization Cash settlement Start of distribution privatization Market opening 100 % Electricity Energy Supply Chain under the Liberal Market Conditions Monopoly activities subject to regulations Transmission and system facilities Distribution - TEİAŞ - Regional Distribution Companies Competitive Market Retail Sale Production -EÜAŞ-Hydro -Portfolio Companies - IPP - Autoproducers & Autoproducer groups Retail Sale Market Small Consumers Wholesale Market Major Consumers - TETAŞ - Private Wholesale Companies - Regional Distribution Companies -Autoproducers facilities -Eligible consumers - Consumers directly connected to transmission system - Retail sale companies - Non eligible consumers Evolution of the Wholesale Market Bilateral contracting supplemented by Balancing and Settlement Regime December 2003 Financial Settlements Communique August 2006 Balancing and Settlement Regulation starting by 2009 Day Ahead Market FBSR Future Financial Markets and Future Contracts Electricity Market Breakdown of installed capacity by generators (2007) TOOR 1,6% BOT 6,0% EUAS 58,9% Private 41,1% TOTAL TOTAL 41 GW 40.755 IPP 9,0% Mobile 0,6% Autoproducer 8,9% BOO 15,0% Ongoing studies for privatisation of distribution and generation Amendment to the Electricity Market Law Enhancing the Security of Supply Improving the monitoring & evaluation mechanism Further improving the investment climate on generation side Capacity mechanisms Optional tendering NEW INVESTMENT : LICENCED PROJECTS TOTAL: 23078 MW (MARCH 2008) 20000 TTOAL:17766 MW 18000 THERMAL 16000 14000 8171 MW 12000 10000 HYDRO 8000 TOTAL:5312 MW 6000 7560 1672 4000 1984 2000 WIND 2035 1656 LICENCED TO BE LICENCED 0 20 NEW PROJECTS, EXPECTED COMMISSIONING YEARS 4500 4000 MW THERMAL 3500 1372 3000 881 2500 HYDRO 2000 745 1500 414 2385 2633 0 1000 331 500 121 484 1134 WIND 370 0 2008 1354 577 2009 14 0 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 21 Renewables Second largest contributor to the primary production In 2007 11% of TPES was supplied from renewable sources 20% of total electricity production was from renewable sources (43736 GWh) (2006 : 25 %) Aim: to keep and further increase renewable share in energy balance (80 % increase in supply from renewables until 2020 ) Utilization of the remaining hydro resources until 2023 – 37 % being utilized at present, 18% under construction (Total 35000 MW, Today 13000 MW) > 20 000 MW Additional Wind (Today 350 MW, 1000 MW under Construction)) 22 Energy Efficiency Energy conservation potential up to the 30% was defined in end use sectors. Energy Efficiency Law was adopted in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, To increase the energy efficiency awareness through media, training in schools, contest, informative billing etc. To set up administrative structure and mechanism for energy efficiency services To promote the energy services activities in the market To promote renewables and cogeneration for the protection environment (Cogeneration installed capacity: 4476 MW, i.e. 11% of total installed capacity as of April 2007.) Incentives and obligations to decrease energy intensity Demand side measures , incentives Measures for production & supply 23 Interconnection with UCTE Technical studies approved by UCTE in April 2007. Ongoing studies for “Improvement of Frequency Control Performance” Oil And Gas Transit 25