Transcript Urban Development Challenges for GSS

Towards a Science of Cities
Colin Harrison
IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus
[email protected]
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From Engineering Efficiency to a Science of Cities
• 2005-7
Life on an Instrumented Planet
• 2008-10
Integrated, sustainable urban systems
• 2011-
Sustainable and resilient urban systems
• 2012-
People and urban systems
A Science of Cities
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Life on an Instrumented Planet
Improved performance derived from
data and models to increase efficiency
and effectiveness
Measuring, Monitoring, Modeling and Managing
• The world’s resources are finite
– Billions of sensors
– Pervasive networks
– Capacity to store and analyze
• Need to close the loop
– Price signals
– Social Computing
– Behavioural Economics
Feedback to user and data source;
Incentives and actions to change behavior
• Technology is cheap and available
Metering
Real Time
Data Integration
Real Time
+ Historical Data
Data Modeling
+ Analytics
Feedback to user and data source;
Incentives and actions to change behavior
– Energy – cost, GHG emissions
– Water – “no cost”, Tragedy of the
Commons
– Space – roads take 20% of space
Sensing
 Data collection
 Data Integration
 Comparison of historical
data, with newly collected
data
 Data modeling and
analytics to create insights
from data to feed decision
support and actions
Visualization
+ Decisions
Source: “Instrumenting the Planet”, IBM Journal of Research & Development, March 2009
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MASDAR – A “Carbon Neutral” City*
• New city for 90,000 people in Abu Dhabi, UAE
• Entirely powered by photovoltaic and solar
thermal energy
• Personal Rapid Transport system – no private
transportation
• Complete “Carbon history” of construction
• A learning experience for the construction of green
cities
• A project of the Abu Dhabi Future Energy
Company, a subsidiary of Mubadala, the
development agency of the sovereign wealth fund
of Abu Dhabi
*August 2008
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Copyright Foster & Partners
Integrated, sustainable urban systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
- Integrated Fare Management
- Road Usage Charging
- Traffic Information
Management
- Electric Vehicles
Energy Management
- Network Monitoring & Stability
- Smart Grid – Demand
Management
- Intelligent Building Management
- Automated Meter Management
Environmental Management
- City-wide Measurements
- KPI’s, scorecards
- CO2 Management
Enhanced Public Safety
- Intelligent Surveillance
- Integrated Emergency Services
- “Weatherproofing”
- Micro-Weather Forecasting
Water Management
- Smart metering
- Network instrumentation
- Combined Sewage
Overflow
Smart Integrated Building
Management
- Integrated control systems
- Property Performance
Management
- Building to Grid
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Sustainable and Resilient Urban Systems
Natural disasters, human error, cascading failures, and cyber-security attacks highlight the
complexity and fragility of our global society, its businesses and infrastructure
WW: Cloud Service
Outage , 2011
Loss ~$5600/min
Japan: Quake/Tsunami/
Nuclear, 2011
Loss ~$200B, 30K Lives
Global supply chain impact
USA: Cyber-attack, 2011
Loss ~$170M,
Personal information
is stolen
Thailand: Flooding 2011
Loss ~$4 B, 550 Lives
Auto and HDD are hit hard
Loss of data
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Human error
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System failure
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Supply chain disruption
Iceland: Volcano, 2010
Loss ~$1.7B
10M Passengers affected
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Virus, worm or other malicious attack on IT systems
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Employee malfeasance, e.g. theft or fraud
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Natural disasters, such as fires or floods
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Unplanned downtime of online systems
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Australia: Bushfires, 2009
Loss ~$4B, 173 Lives
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(Source: US-CERT)
$200B
Terrorism
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Power outage
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Pandemic
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Application failure
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Industrial action
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Types of threats
most important
for operational
risk management
planning
(% respondents)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit survey
USA: Port Strikes, 2002
Loss ~$15B
Retail and supply chain
disruptions
Number of
incidents
reported to
US-CERT
1900
Estimated damage
caused by
reported natural
disasters
China: + 37 countries,
SARS, 2002-2003
Loss ~$15B, 916 Lives
Major workforce
disruptions
2011
(Source: EM-DAT)
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People and Urban Systems
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Urban Systems are the composition of services and capabilities
derived from the natural and built environments that we model
as a large number of GIS layers
Social Systems
People
Commerce
Culture
Policy
Services
Energy
Water
Building
Services
Transport
Information
Resources
Water
Air
Oil
Minerals
Infrastructure
Land Use
Roads
Buildings
Utilities
Natural Environment
Topography
Environment
Resources
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A Science of Cities
Complexity
Theorists
Engineers
Urbanists
Typology
Taxonomy
Transportation
Planners
Architects
Capture Store
Scaling
Networks
Urban
Systems
Analysts
Urban
Systems
Information
Economics
Social
Scientists
Civic Groups /
Open Data
Flows &
Connections
Integrated
Simulations
Structure Integrate
Built
Environment
Transportation
Managers
Basic
Resources
Natural
Environment
Economic
Development
Leaders
Energy/Utility
Managers
Public Safety
Managers
Public Health
Managers
Environmental Managers
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Global Systems Science Challenges for Urban Systems
1.
Formal representation of Urban Systems
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Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration
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3.
Natural and Man-Made resources
By-products, waste
Economic outcomes
View of “what is the City trying to do?”
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Understanding and insight
Support for decision-making
Rule of one hand – tipping points
Resource consumption & production
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6.
Patterns & Principles to simplify model building
Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling
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5.
“Single View of the Truth”
What real-world problems are we trying to solve?
The Need for Flower Collecting
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4.
Structures of components
Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S)
Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S)
“Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production
Match between intention and capabilities
City as a Design Problem – How well does it work?
Transformation of how the city works
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Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age
Planning for One
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Closing thoughts…the City as a Design Problem
• Cities are and always have been information processing
systems.
• Cities today are both the source and the solution of many of
our global society’s challenges.
• Given the increasingly rich pathways between and among
urban systems and people for digital information….what
would Steve do?
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Thanks for your attention!
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