Transcript The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Guy P. Brasseur
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg
The Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology
Past Accomplishments and Vision for the Future
Outline
1. The MPI-M in a nutshell
2. Mission Statement and Scientific Directions
3. Model Development and Infrastructure
4. Scientific Departments and Projects
5. The International Max Planck School for Earth
System Modeling
6. Issues and Challenges
7. Vision for the Future
8. Scientific Presentations
1. The MPI-M in a Nutshell
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (1)
 Founded in 1974
 3 Departments

Climate Processes
 Physical Climate System
 Biogeochemical System
 1 Research Group

Integrated Assessments
 ~200 Staff members
 Total Budget of 14 Millions Euros
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (2)
 MPG-supported positions: 47.5
 Scientists: 20
 Technicians: 14.5
 Administration: 5.5
 Others: 7.5
 Scientists supported by soft-money: 65
 PhD Students: 23
 M&D Group: 25
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (3)
Positions in each Department or Group
 Climate Processes: 41
 Physical Climate System: 33
 Biogeochemical System: 41
 Integrated Assessments: 12
 International Max Planck Research School: 12
 Services: 20
 Administration: 20
 Others: 10
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (4a)
MPG-supported “Scientist Staff”
 Scientists--Scientific support staff: 11--7
 Permanent—Non Permanent: 15--3
 Female--Male: 1--17
 German--Foreign: 16--2
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (4b)
Total Staff of MPI-M
 Non Permanent -- Permanent:
 Non German -- German:
 Female -- Male:
143 -- 46
37 -- 152
77 -- 112
Scientists and Scientific Support
 Permanent: 15
Non Permanent: 67
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (5)
Budget of the Institute (2002) in Euros
(including salaries in Meuros)
 Institutional (MPG) Support:
 Projects (Soft-money)
 Overhead:
 Total:
7.2
6.4
0.3
13.9
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (6)
Products and Deliverables
 85 papers/year in the peer-reviewed literature
 Community models and model components
(atmosphere, ocean; regional, global)
 State-of-the-art instrumentation
 Educational products
The MPI-M in a Nutshell (7)
The Research Environment
 Other Max Planck Institutes
 Biogeochemistry in Jena and Chemistry in Mainz
 The University of Hamburg (ZMAW)
 Institute for Meteorology
 Institute for Oceanography
 Sustainability Research Unit:
 The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts
 Two National Facilities
 Model and Data Group (administered by MPI-M)
 The German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ)
The Model and Data Group (M&D)
 A national facility documenting, adapting and
providing to the scientific community state-ofthe-art global and regional climate models
 A national facility hosting and distributing data
sets related to the Earth system, and
specifically results from long-term model
integrations
 M&D is administered by the Max Planck
Institute and financed by the Ministry for
Education and Research (BMBF)
The German Climate Computer
Center (DKRZ)
 A national infrastructure open to the German
scientific community providing top-of-the-line
supercomputing facility and visualization tools
 Private company managed by 4 shareholders
(Max Planck Society, University Hamburg,
GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht,
Alfred Wegner Institute (AWI) [4 Meuros/year]
 Infrastructure provided by the German
Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)
[60 Meuros in 10 years]
Organization
Shareholder
DKRZ
MPI-M
Cooperation
M&D
Advise
Service
WLA
Service
Requirements
German Scientific Community
2. Mission Statement and Scientific
Directions
Mission Statement
To understand how physical, chemical, and
biological processes, as well as human
behavior contribute to the dynamics of the
Earth system, and specifically how they relate
to global and regional climate changes.
Analysis and Prediction of the Earth
Dynamics
Develop and use appropriate tools to
investigate the complexity of the Earth
system, explain its natural variability, assess
how the system is affected by changes in
land-use, industrial development,
urbanization and other human-induced
perturbations
New Directions (1)
 Extension of physical climate models towards
comprehensive Earth system models
 Development of a new dynamical core for a
global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model
component
 Development of a unified ocean model with
shelfs, tides, and waddens, using a new grid
 Development of a chemical transport model
to analyze observations, quantify global
budgets, and assess chemistry-climate
interactions
New Directions (2)
 Quantification of energy, water, and carbon
partitioning at the land surface, jointly with
MPI-Jena
 Study of energetics, dynamics and chemistry
of the mesopause region, and influences of
upper atmosphere variability on lower
atmospheric processes
 Assessment of the role of dynamical modes
in climate change
 Investigation of the glacial-interglacial
transitions
.
3. Model Development and
Infrastructure
Model development
 ECHAM-5: Global Atmospheric GCM
 MPI-OM-1: Global/Regional Ocean GCM with
ice model
 LPJ-BETHY-VIC: Land Vegetation Model
 MOZART-2: Global Chemical transport model
 HAMMOC: Ocean Biogeochemical Model
 REMO: Regional Atmospheric Model with
hydrological cycle and coupled ocean model
 LES: Large-scale Eddy Simulations
 ATHAM: High resolution simulations of fire
and volcanic eruptions
Model components of the Earth System
ECHAM5, REMO, ATHAM, LES
MPI-OM1
LSG
HAMMOC
LPJ
BETHY
VIC
SICOPOLIS
GWEM
MOZART, CHEM, CTM, SAM, HAM
SDIAM
SDEM
Atmosphere
Physics:
Atmospheric
Chemistry:
Land Surface
Coupler
Ocean
Biogeochemistry:
Ocean
Physics
Regional
Climate:
Sea Ice
Infrastructure (1)
 A new organizational structure with
 Three Scientific Divisions
 One Scientific Project for Integrated Assessment
 A Service Group (Information Technology, Public
Relations and Graphics, Library, Workshop)
 The Administration
 The Model and Data Group
(transferred from DKRZ, administered by MPI-M)
 Seminar Series
 The International Max Planck Research
School on Earth System Modeling
Infrastructure (2)
 Service functions (IT, PR) have been
centralized, and a plan for IT development is
in preparation, intranet and internet
 A new building is being constructed
 A Strategic Plan for scientific research during
the next 8 years
 Several cross-cutting working groups open to
scientists from outside MPI-M
Infrastructure (3)
 Joint project with MPI-Biogeochemistry, MPI-
Chemistry and PIK (Essence Project) has
been developed.
 International links, specifically with Institut
Laplace in Paris for joint Earth System Model
studies have been established.
 New supercomputing facilities have been
installed and are accessible to MPI-M
scientists (DKRZ-Hamburg)
DKRZ Hardware Configuration
(in preparation)
Distribution of computing resources
Shareholders: 50%
 MPG:
27%
 Uni-HH: 13%
 AWI:
5%
 GKSS:
5%
Projects (BMBF, DFG): 50%
PRISM
An Infrastructure Project for Climate Research in
Europe
To create a European infrastructure for
developing, coordinating and executing a longterm program of European-wide, multiinstitutional Earth System simulations
Develop a system of portable, efficient and
user-friendly community models with
associated visualization/diagnostic software
under standardized coding conventions.
PRISM Partners
Coordination:
MPI-M, Germany
KNMI, The Netherlands
MPI-M&D, Germany
MetOffice, United Kingdom
UREADMY, United Kingdom
IPSL, France
MétéoFrance, France
CERFACS, France
DMI, Denmark
SHMI, Sweden
NERSC, Norway
CSCS/ETH, Switzerland
INGV, Italy
MPI-BGC, Germany
PIK, Germany
ECMWF, Europe
UCL-ASTR, Belgium
NEC-ESS, Germany
FECIT/Fujitsu, France
SGI, Germany
SUN, Germany
NEC-CCRLE, Germany
4. Scientific Departments and
Scientific Projects
A Quick Survey
Climate Processes
Climate Processes
 Atmospheric Structure from Passive Sensing
 Atmospheric Structure from Laser Remote
Sensing
 Radar Methods and Technology
 Modeling of Boundary Layer Processes
 Aerosol Chemistry
Goal:
Evaluate energy and moisture exchange between sea surface and the
atmosphere from passive microwave satellite data
Example: Annual mean field of fresh water flux in mm/d for the years 1992 and
1993 as derived from SSM/I microwave data
Derivation of the vertical distribution of key atmospheric parameters as
e.g. water vapor, ozone, aerosol, wind, through laser remote sensing
Goal:
Example: Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) will allow all day water vapor
profiling of the troposphere with accuracies comparable to Raman-Lidar results
Future Orientations
 Investigation of the indirect aerosol effects
 Improvement of water cycle components in
climate models
 Study of the fate organic pollutants in the
different components of the Earth system
 Quantification of smoke aerosols to thermal
infrared emissions
 Improvement and extension of the HOAPS
climatology
Physical Climate System
Physical Climate System
 Understanding and predicting internal climate
variability on seasonal, inter-annual and
decadal timescales
 Sensitivity of the climate system to orbital
forcing and meltwater input from ice-sheets
 Impact of anthropogenic emissions on past
and future climate evolution
 Recent climate trends in model evolution and
observations
 Projected Climate Change
 Regionalization and Extreme Events
Difference in annual mean surface air temperature (average
over years 501 to 1000) between the mid-Holocene experiment 6k
and the control run (modern insolation and preindustrial pCO2).
Differences (%)in a) tree and b) grass plant functional type
coverages between the mid-holocene simulation 6k and the control
case. Data were averaged over the time period 501 to 1000 years.
Future Orientations
 Interactions between the physical climate
system and the biological system (carbon
cycle, atmospheric chemistry)
 Simulation of extreme events
 Stability of the thermohaline circulation
 High latitude climate
Biogeochemical System
Biogeochemical System
 Aerosols, microphysics and climate
 Atmospheric chemistry at the global and
regional scales: chemistry-climate
interactions and air quality
 Biogeochemistry in the ocean
 Modeling of chemical-dynamical-radiative
interactions in the Middle and Upper
Atmosphere
 Atmospheric dynamics and variability modes
Anomalies for 1985 relative to 1870, as
calculated by the MPI ECHAM-Aerosol Model
(Dec-Jan-Feb)
MOZART-2 Chemical-Transport Modeling
HAMMONIA - Simulation Examples
Zonal Mean Temperature [K] and Ozone for January
Temperature
Ozone Mixing ratio
The QBO
The Quasi-biennal
Oscillation (QBO) is
simulated by the Middle
Atmosphere Version of
ECHAM-5 with 90 levels.
No specific forcing is
applied to the model. The
amplitude and period are
comparable to
observations. This
oscillation is not produced
by the model that includes
only 39 levels.
Marco Giorgetta, MPI-M
Variability modes
leading to climate
regimes exist in
the coupled
atmosphereocean system.
The processes
leading to the
stability of
polarity of these
modes are
studied in
observations and
models.
Future Orientations
 Simulation of the atmospheric chemical
composition over the last 50 years
 Analysis and interpretation of space
observations of chemical compounds
 Solar variability, anthropogenic forcing, upper
atmosphere response and climate change
 Development of a system to predict “chemical
weather”
 Coupling of biogeochemical system with
physical climate system
Integrated Assessments
 Water and energy cycle in different drainage
basins
 Climate changes in specific regions of the
world
 Arctic
 Europe (Baltic)
 West-Africa
 Socio-economic aspects of climate change
on the global scale
IPCC-B2 scenario calci:
Calculated annual mean
precipitation between 2020
and 2050 in response to
the.
+20%
-20%
Model:
REMO model at 18 km
resolution. Lateral
boundary conditions are
provided by the MPI-M
global climate model.
Black contours:
+/-20% changes in
annual precipitation
with respect to
present (1990-2000)
A simple climate model calibrated on the state-of-the-art MPIM climate model is coupled to a socio-economic model,
which reflects basic dynamic interactions between actors
within the economy.
Future Orientations
 Future development of the MPI-M regional
Climate system (aerosol-cloud system,
convection, dynamic vegetation)
 Regional climate changes
 Future water availability
 Socio-economic studies will be developed
primarily through cooperation with ZMAW and
PIK
5. The International Max Planck
Research School for Earth System
Modeling
Objective
The purpose of „IMPRS on Earth System
Modelling“ is to bring together natural and
social scientists to work towards the
development and evaluation of a hierarchy of
integrated earth system models and their
components.
Pillars
 Combination of thesis research and courses
 International
 Multidisciplinary
Financial Support
1. Zeit Stiftung: 50%
2. Max Planck Society: 50%
Participating Organizations
1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
2. University of Hamburg (Institute for
Meteorology, Institute for Oceanography,
Sustainable Research Unit, Department of
Economics)
3. University of Kassel
4. GKSS (Institute for Coastal Zones)
5. HWWA (Hamburg Institute for International
Economics)
The First Vintage
(March 2002)
• Nearly 90 applications, 75% from outside
Germany, 70% male
•
14 Fellowships awarded, 60% from outside
Germany,
•
15% male
additional students financed via projects
 total of 25,
 50% from outside Germany, 30% male
The Second Vintage
(November, 2002)
73 applications from Argentina, Belarus, Benin,
Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Egypt,
Ethiopia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, India,
Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Nigeria, Pakistan,
Palestine, Portugal, Romania, Russia,
Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, USA,
Venezuela, Zimbabwe.
8 from Germany
Students of the IMPRS on Earth System Modelling
Name
Country
of
origin
Supported via
MPI-M/IMPRS
PhD Research
Payra,
Swagata
India
The role of the thermohaline circulation in climate change
Pfeifer,
Susanne
Germany MPI-M/SFB
Simulation of convective situation in the extratropics/REMO
Rechid,
Diana
Germany MPI-M/BMBF
Feedback of vegetation on regional climate variability
Ronneberger, Germany Hamburg University/Volkswagen
Kerstin
Foundation
An economic land-use model
Santos,
Gabriela
Portugal
The role of natural halocarbons for the global tropospheric ozone
budget
Stehfest,
Elke
Germany Kassel University/IMPRS
CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions caused by land use change
Stier, Phillip
Germany MPI-M
Towards an assessment of the indirect aerosol effect - development of
an aerosol module for a GCM
Vizcaino
Spain
Trueba, Miren
ZEIT Foundation/IMPRS
MPI-M
Ice Sheets and the Earth System - Coupling of an ice sheet model and
an OAGCM
Wetzel,
Patrick
Germany MPI-M
Short term variability of ocean CO2 budgets
Woth, Katja
Germany MPI-M
Recent and future storm surge climate for the North Sea
Zhou, Yuan
China
Hamburg University/IMPRS
An Economic Analysis of Water resources and Water consumption due
to global change
Zuo, Xinjuan
China
Hamburg University/IMPRS
Climate and Economic Growth
Students of the IMPRS on Earth System Modelling
Name
Country
of
origin
Supported via
PhD Research
Criscuolo,
Luca
Italy
MPI-BGC/Volkswagen Foundation
Modelling of global agricultural systems under scenarios of climate and
land use change and its impacts on carbon cycle and economic factors
Cui, Xuefeng
China
MPG-GV/Chinese Academy of Sciences
Simulation on Clouds over Namco Lake in Tibet with the model GESIMA
Dang Hong,
Hanh
Vietnam
HWWA/IMPRS
Integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies as instruments of
international climate policy
Devasthale,
Abhay
India
Hamburg University/IMPRS
Cloud Optical Properties from EOS-MODIS Measurements
Gaslikowa,
Lidia
Russia
GKSS/IMPRS
Assessment of scenario impact on matter transporting and wave
parameters at the coastal zone
Grossmann,
Iris
Germany GKSS/IMPRS
Scenarios for the Lower Elbe region with particular emphasis on
changes in the environment-economy-interrelationship
Gugliemo,
Francesca
Italy
Using a GCM to investigate the multicompartmental fate of toxic
organics
Hoelzemann,
Judith
Germany MPI-M
Modelling of global agricultural systems under scenarios of climate and
land use change and its impacts on carbon cycle and economic factors
Jung,
Martina
Germany MPG-GV/IMPRS
Implications for climate change of the integration of forest sinks in
international climate policy
Kloster, Sivia
Germany MPI-M/BMBF
The role of biogenic sulphur species in the climate system
Kotlarski,
Sven
Germany MPI-M/BMBF
regional water cycles / Baltex (running title)
Link, Peter
Michael
Germany Hamburg University/BMBF
Modelling the economic consequences of a change of the thermohaline
circulation (THC) for fisheries in the North Atlantic region
Nayaran,
Caroline
Fijii
Investigation of the changes in carbon dioxide fluxes and
concentrations in the European region represented by various models
MPI-M/IMPRS
ZEIT Foundation/IMPRS
Sven, Susanne
Yuan, Iris
Diana
Jessic
a
Kerstin
Patrick,
Lidia
Judith, Caroline, Silvia
Swagata, Miren,
Katja, Swagata
Abhay, Phillip, Stephen
Elke, Luca
Hanh
Gabriela, Francesca
Michael
6. Issues and Challenges
Issues and Challenges (1)
 The Institute has been in a too long transition
(1998-2003).
 The freeze in the hiring of permanent
positions in the last 5 years has been
damaging to the Institute (about 80% of the
scientific staff is on soft-money with
insufficient supervision and mentoring)
 The lack of computer upgrade (1997-2002)
has delayed progress, and specifically the
release of the new community models.
Evolution of Computing Power at
DKRZ
Peak Performance of Supercomputers at DKRZ [GFlops]
10000
Phase 3
HLRE - Phase 2
Phase 1
1000
100
(NEC SX4/8)
NEC SX4/16
Cray C90
10
Cray-YMP
Cray-2S
1
Cyber 205
0,1
84
86
88
90
92
94
Year
96
98
100
102
104
106
Issues and Challenges (2)
 The lack of perspectives for junior scientists
lowers staff morale (5-year and 12-year
rules).
 The need for permanently supported
computer engineers in an institute that
develops community models.
 The lack of a clear overhead system has
negative impacts on the management of the
Institute.
 The financial problems of the Max Planck
Society and their impact on the research
7. Vision for the Future
Values for the Institute
 Scientific excellence and high productivity
 Integration of research efforts with
educational/outreach initiatives
 Development of human capital
 Increase in staff diversity, including the
proportion of women
 Broadening of traditional approaches towards
integrative and interdisciplinary methodologies
 Maintain strong internal and external
communication, using modern technologies
Leadership
 Through the development, documentation
and the dissemination of community models
 ECHAM, MPI-OM, REMO, Mozart, etc.
 Through the coordination of large scientific
projects
 Earlinet, PRISM, Baltex, PARTS, RETRO, etc.
 Through the organization if community
conferences and workshops
 Earth System Conference, Workshop on dynamical cores
and on convection in climate models
Where should the Institute be in 5
years from now ?
 A new Director for the “Physical Climate”
Division
 The 5 vacant MPG positions filled with
outstanding scientists covering new aspects
 A joint research program with Jena, Mainz
and Potsdam supported by MPG.
 The implementation of a “Climate Service”
providing quasi-operational climate prediction
and regrouping DKRZ and the M&D group
Where should the Institute be in 5
years from now ?
 A new generation of supercomputer in place
(European initiative?)
 A redefined direction for the “Atmospheric
Process” Division (retirement of H. Grassl)
 A second phase of the IMPRS
 The release of the first version of the
Integrated Earth System Model (global and
regional components)
8. Scientific Presentations
Today’s Presentations
1. Examples of Integrated Research Activities: H. Grassl
2. Illustrations of Scientific Activities:
 Large Eddy Simulations: A. Chlond
 Global Climate Modeling: M. Latif
 Regional Climate Modeling: D. Jacob
 Atmospheric Structure from Lidar and Radar:
J. Bösenberg
 Atmospheric Chemistry: M. Schultz
 Upper and Middle Atmosphere Modeling:
M. Giorgetta
The END