Transcript Slide 1

The State of the tanker industry
IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007
[email protected]
Manager Research and Projects
The State of the tanker Industry
•
•
•
•
•
High safety
Low pollution
Low age
High earnings – until now
Surplus of tonnage building up
Pollution rate
1000 ts spilt per bn tonne miles carried
bn
tonne-m
1000
ts spilt
1,600
68,000
1,200
49,000
Accidental pollution
800
30,000
Tonne-miles
400
11,000
+97
%
0
1971-76
Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys
1977-82
-52
%
1983-88
+50
%
1989-94
-80%
1995-00
-26%
2001-06
-8,000
Tanker accidents and trade
Bn tonne-miles trade
1000 ts spilt
600
'000 Tonnes
Trade in Tonne miles
500
Trade in
Tonne-m iles
(Fearnleys)
14,000
12,000
10,000
400
8,000
300
6,000
200
4,000
100
Ship name
Year
Pollut.ion
Torrey Canyon
67
119
Amoco Cadiz
78
223
Exxon Valdez
89
37
ABT Summer
91
260
Haven
91
144
Aegean Sea
92
74
Braer
93
85
Sea Empress
96
72
Erika
99
20
Prestige
02
63
Tasman Spirit
03
30
2,000
0
0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys
Tanker incidents by cause 1978-1Q07
Number incidents
700
1000
War
800
600
600
Hull & Machinery
Fire/Expl
Grounded
500
Coll/Contact
Misc.
400
Pollution - bars
300
400
200
200
100
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
0
Source: Based on incidents reports from Informa
0
Tanker incidents by cause 2006
Reported tanker
incidents Jan-Dec 2006 total 265
Hull &
Machinery
(32 engine, 3
hull related)
F&E
Misc.
28%
9%
17%
13%
Collision
Grounding
33%
Groundings
Fire/Explosion
Collision
Hull & machinery
Misc/unknown
Source: Based on incident reports from Informa
Accidental pollution from tankers
largest accidents and age
Number incidents
Average age
1100
16.0
880
12.8
660
9.6
440
6.4
220
Incidents
3.2
Age
0
0.0
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Source: Informa/INTERTANKO
Total losses, tankers and bulkers
Number
18
16
Tankers 47
14
Bulkers 155
12
10
8
6
4
2
Source: Clarkson
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
Tanker
Market
02/01/2007
$ per day freight rate
02/09/2006
02/05/2006
02/01/2006
02/09/2005
02/05/2005
02/01/2005
02/09/2004
02/05/2004
02/01/2004
02/09/2003
02/05/2003
02/01/2003
02/09/2002
02/05/2002
02/01/2002
02/09/2001
02/05/2001
02/01/2001
Oil price and VLCC freight rates
$ per barrel oil price
200,000
Oil price, Brent
Blend
80
160,000
64
VLCC rate, 250,000 dwt, AG - Japan
120,000
48
80,000
32
40,000
16
0
0
VLCC spot and break-even rates
$ per day freight rate
140,000
120,000
100,000
Current VLCC price in any year, interest rate average
LIBOR for period + 1.25% (7.1%) , docking costs $1-4
m per 5 year period, residual value $6m after 25
years. Based on NPV calculations
Freight
rates
80,000
60,000
Break-even rates
40,000
20,000
0
1989 19901991 19921993 1994 19951996 19971998 19992000 2001 20022003 20042005 20062007
VLCC break-even rates
$ per day freight rate
41,000
36,000
31,000
Break-even rates
26,000
21,000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Oil price and freight rate
$/barrel
80
Nominell pris Arab Light
70
Reell pris Arab Light
Nominell frakt rate AG-Vest
60
Reell frakt rate AG-Vest
50
40
30
20
10
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
0
Source: INTERTANKO
Deflated by the
Consumer Price
Index (USD)
Gasoline price at the pump
$ per litre
1.80
Cost
elements
making up
the gasoline
price:
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.60
Long haul
freight rates
Marketing
0.40
Oil price
0.80
0.20
Tax
0.00
USA
Source: INTERTANKO
Japan
Germany
UK
Source: IEA
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
World oil demand - mbd
mbd
85
80
75
70
65
Oil consumption per capita
litres
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
US
Japan
Source: BP Review
UK
World
FSU
China
Africa
Oil consumption if world populations
consumed oil as Americans
mbds
mbd
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
86 mbd
451 mbd
0
World oil cons
Oil cons. if all consumed as Americans
Seaborne oil trade and
Middle East oil production
mbd
Source: Fearnleys/IEA
'000
bil tm
Seaborne oil trade and
tanker fleet
160
Tanker fleet
140
120
Tonnes crude oil
100
80
Miles
60
Tonne-miles
Source: Fearnleys/IEA
05
P0
7
03
01
99
97
95
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
73
40
Tanker productivity – tonne-miles/dwt
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
73
75
77
79
Source: Fearnleys/IEA
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05 P07
Sources of Asian oil imports
6.00
Middle East
4.00
Middle East
Others
Europe
Africa
America
2.00
Others
0.00
1998
Source: IEA
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Sources of European oil imports - mbd
mbd
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: IEA
Europe
America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
FSU
Others
Source: IEA
Sources of US oil imports - mbd
mbd
3.5
3.0
2.5
N America
2.0
Europe
M. East
1.5
Ven/Ecu
1.0
Africa
Others
0.5
Source:
IEA
0.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: IEA
Increase in world oil demand in
ME*, USA, China and ROW**
mbd
3.2
** Rest of world
*Middle East
USA
China
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
1995
Source: IEA
1996
1997
1998
23%
95%
1999
2000
2001
50% 35%
28%
21%
54%
28%
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2003
FSU:
+0.05
Other Asia: +0.18
L America: +0.09
Africa:
+0.06
World oil supply - mbd
mbd
30
25
N America
20
S/C America
N Sea
15
Middle East
W Africa
10
Other Africa
Asia Pacific
5
Others
FSU
0
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
Source: IEA
Tanker
Supply
Tanker contracting
m dwt
$ bn
55
85
Handy
44
68
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
33
51
VLCCs
m dw t
34
11
17
0
0
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
JF0
7
22
VLCC
13. 4 $ bn
Suezmax: 5.9 ”
Aframax:
8.8 ”
Panamax: 2.8 ”
Handy:
22.9 ” (43%)
Source: INTERTANKO/Clarkson Shipyard Monitor
Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out
tankers above 30,000 dwt
m dwt
350
300
250
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
200
Panamax
150
Handy
100
50
29%
42%
0
SH - 23%
79 m dwt
Orders - 39%
133 m
dwt
Fleet - 100%
Phase out SH tankers above 30,000 dwt
m dwt
60
Min phase out
50
MARPOL phase out assumes SH
tankers to trade after 2010 until
the age of 25 years old, EU+
phase out assumes that SH
tankers all are removed from the
market by end 2010 (except DB
or DS ones)
Max Phase out
40
30
20
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
VLCCs
max phase out ,+ 4.5% trade increase, assume balanced marked end 2006
Number
140
120
Newbuilding demand
100
Deliveries
Surplus
80
Max phase out
60
40
20
0
-02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Fleet:
142 m dwt 487 ships
Orderbook: 54 m dwt 177 ”
Single hull: 42 m dwt 154 ”
Average age: 9.4 years
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Suezmaxes
max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006
m dwt
Newbuilding demand
8
Deliveries
6
Surplus
Max phase out
4
2
0
-02
03
04
05
06
Fleet:
52 m dwt
Orderbook: 20 m dwt
Single hull: 9 m dwt
Average age: 9.2 years
07
08
09
10
11
12
Surplus end 2007:
”
2008:
”
2009:
”
2010:
13
14
1.8 m dwt
2.6 m dwt
8.1 m dwt
3.7 m dwt
15
Conversion to DH
Built
10-30
30-52
60-72
90-113
120-148 VLCCs
1970s
3
2
0
0
0
0
5
1980-84
8
36
9
1
0
0
54
1986-89
11
12
0
3
3
1
30
1990-98
2
9
1
18
2
2
34
Total
24
59
10
22
5
3
123
Total 7. 2 m dwt
Conversion to FPSO/FSO/bulk carriers, heavy lift ….
(1.9 m dwt in 2006, 1.2 m dwt so far 2007
Total
Tanker deliveries, removals, min phase-out
m dwt
50
40
30
New building to
balance by
2015
Min phase out
20
Demolition
10
Delveries
0
-10
-20
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
-30
Surplus
tonnage
* Assuming all SH
tankers are phased
out by 2010 and 4.5%
increase in demand as
from 2007 - a surplus
is building up - balance
by 2015
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out
m dwt
43
New building to balance
33
Max phase out
23
Removals
13
Deliveries
3
Surplus tonnage
-7
Assumptions: 1.8 m dw t
removed annually by
conversions in addition to
phase out, an overhang of
4.6 m dw t of obsolete ships
scheduled to be phased out
before 2006, assumed to be
phased ut by 2009, trade
assumed to increase by
-17
-27
-37
-47
4.5%.
-57
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Tanker fleet double-hull
development
%
100
80
49
41
33
32
28
24
21
18
15
SH/DB/DS
DH
78
60
% dw t share*:
94
End 08
85
End 10
End 07
82
End 09
76
End 06
59
68
End 05
51
67
72
79
End 04
40
20
22
0
6
End 03
End 02
1997
1991
Source: INTERTANKO
* Assumes
phase out
according to
regulations
(rounded
upw ards, 25
years after 2010
.
Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
Average
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Europe
US Atlantic
Far East
Others
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out
m dwt
5,200
460
dwt
number
368
4,160
276
3,120
184
2,080
92
1,040
06
P0
7
P0
8
P0
9
P1
0
04
05
02
03
00
01
98
99
96
97
0
94
95
92
93
0
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Strong safety performance
Relatively strong demand development
Very strong fleet increase
Reduced earnings
Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwt
min phase out, + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006
m dwt
8
New building demand
Deliveries
Surplus
6
Max phase out
4
2
0
-02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
..if 4.5% increase, no new orders needed before 2012
15
VLCC fleet development
m dwt
Number
630
182
588
167
546
152
504
137
dwt
462
number
122
420
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 P07P08P09P10
Source: INTERTANKO
Aframaxes
max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006
m dwt
5
Orders to balance
4
Deliveries
Increase
3
max phase out
2
1
0
-02
03
04
05
06
Fleet:
72 m dwt
Orderbook: 28 m dwt
Single hull: 14 m dwt
Average age: 9.2 years
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Surplus end 2007: 1.5 m dwt
”
2008: 5.5 m dwt
”
2009: 12.0 m dwt 15%
”
2010: 5.3 m dwt 6%
Aframaxes
max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006
m dwt
5
Orders to balance
4
Deliveries
Increase
3
max phase out
2
1
0
-02
03
04
05
06
Fleet:
72 m dwt
Orderbook: 28 m dwt
Single hull: 14 m dwt
Average age: 9.2 years
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Surplus end 2007: 1.5 m dwt
”
2008: 5.5 m dwt
”
2009: 12.0 m dwt 15%
”
2010: 5.3 m dwt 6%
Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwt
min phase out + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006
1,253 tankers
487 orders
228 phase out
11.1 years
Number
160
New building demand
140
Deliveries
Surplus
120
Max phase out
100
80
60
40
20
0
-02
03
04
05
06
07
08
end 2007, 145 del - 45 phase out*,
“ 2008, 157 “ - 17
“
“ 2009, 127 “ - 18
“
“ 2010, 56 “ - 93
“
09
10
11
12
13
75 increase demand
80
“
84
“
90
“
14
15
= surplus 25 ships
= “
85 “
= “
110 “
= “
1 “
Oil import by Panamaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
70
Average
60
50
40
30
20
Europe
10
US Atlantic
Far East
Others
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
Average
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Europe
US Atlantic
Far East
Others
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006