Transcript HMS - Shippingforum

HM Strategies
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Shipping Forum, 23 January 2013
Shipping Market Update
& Ecoship Considerations
Shipping Adviser Jarle Hammer
22.01
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18.01
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18.01
18.01
Countercyclical Investments
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‘000 USD/d
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Source: Fearnleys
Volatility
485%
293%
220%
260%
173%
Volatility:
Highest in %
above Lowest
16.01
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TIME FOR
M&A
and
Supply
Measures
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Containership T/C Rates 12 Months
Source: Clarkson
'000 USD/d
45
40
2750 TEU gless
35
Substantial
Substantial
Slow-Steaming
Slow-Steaming
Fleet Reserve
Fleet
Reserve
Capacity
Capacity
1000 TEU grd
30
1700 TEU grd
25
20
15
18.01
10
5
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jan.13
jan.12
jan.11
jan.10
jan.09
jan.08
jan.07
jan.06
jan.05
jan.04
jan.03
jan.02
jan.01
jan.00
jan.99
jan.98
jan.97
jan.96
jan.95
0
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VERY STRONG & WELL EQUIPPED – ABOUT SAME PRICE AS VLCC
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Source: Clarkson
18.01
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January 2013
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JACK-UP G o M
SEMI’s 2 - 5,000 ft
JACK-UP NWE
SEMI’s 5,000 ft +
IHS Petrodata: Rig Utilization & Rates
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Index 1994 = 100
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Source: Clarkson
World Shipyard Monitor
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World GDP - Total Trade - Container Trade
14
Sources: IMF & Clarkson
Pct change
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
World GDP
-6
-8
-10
World Trade
Container Trade
-12
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Economic Performance & Growth. Economist 17.01.13
% change
IP-12m Infl-12m
USA
Euro area
Japan
S. Korea
China
India
Russia
Brazil
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
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2.2
- 3.7
- 5.8
2.9
10.1
- 0.1
1.9
- 1.0
83.3
7.5
20.1
9.6
5.9
1.7
2.2
- 0.2
1.4
2.5
10.6
6.5
5.8
3.6
1.3
4.3
2.9
6.8
GDP-10
-11
-12
-13
2.9
1.7
4.2
6.1
1.9
9.1
6.4
7.7
7.0
6.9
6.1
6.9
6.8
1.7
1.7
- 0.7
3.6
9.2
7.1
4.3
2.9
1.2
4.8
6.5
3.6
5.9
2.2
- 0.4
1.8
2.2
7.7
5.4
3.7
1.0
5.8
5.2
6.3
5.5
4.9
2.0
- 0.1
0.7
3.3
8.5
6.5
3.6
3.5
4.2
4.5
6.4
6.1
5.4
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Source: Fearnleys
Excessive
Ordering
Small
Demand
Growth
Potential Revival?
Ballast reduction
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Million tonnes
oil equivalent
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Source: BP
January 2013
15
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N.AMERICA
R-O-W
W.EUROPE
M.EAST
JAPAN
FSU
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M.EAST OPEC
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PEAK OIL IRRELEVANT
Supply is a function of
Price & Technology
N.AMERICA
FSU
N.SEA
DEPLETION
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Million dwt
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Sources: Fearnleys & HMS
Slippage
2011: 30%
2012: 40%
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Million tonnes
Source: Clarkson
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LNG Exports & Imports 2011
180
Billion cbm
160
140
IMPORTS
120
EXPORTS
100
80
60
40
20
0
N.AMERICA S.AMERICA
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EUROPE*
incl. Eurasia
AFRICA
M.EAST
ASIA PAC
Source: BP
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Major LNG Exporters 2011
Qatar
Malaysia
Indonesia
Australia
Nigeria
Trin. & Tob.
Algeria
Russia
Oman
Brunei
Yemen
Egypt
UAE
Equ. Guinea
Peru
Norway
LNG very hot after closure
of nuclear power plants
However, shale gas
a veritable negative
game changer
US could well become
a net gas exporter
Stokhman gas field shelved ?
0
20
40
60
Billion cbm
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80
100
120
Source: BP
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Sources: Clarkson, Fearnleys, HMS
MINOR BULK
Roughly
1,550 mt in 2012
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Source: Clarkson
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Source: WSA
2012
11 months
annualized
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Million tonnes. 3m av.
China imp 2012
+ 8.6%
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Forecast October 2012
2011 2012 2013
China
6.2 2.5 3.1
R-O-W 6.3 1.7 3.3
World
6.2 2.1 3.2
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Compiled by HMS
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Million dwt. 3m av.
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BDI
January 2013
30
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Million dwt
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Source: Fearnleys
January 2013
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Million GT
All Types
Cheap Finance
from Yards and
Governments
Eco ships
?
2012 8m annualized
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120
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Oil Tanker Fleet Decisions & Deliveries
Million dwt
100
Sources: Fearnleys, Clarkson, HMS
ORDERS
DEMOLITION
80
EST.DEMOLITION
DELIVERIES
60
HMS
est
EST. DELIVERIES
Misc. REMOVALS
40
20
0
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Bulk Carrier Fleet Decisions & Deliveries
180
Million dwt
Sources: Fearnleys, Clarkson, HMS
160
140
ORDERS
120
DEMOLITION
100
80
60
HMS
est
DELIVERIES
EST. DELIVERIES
EST. DEMOLITION
40
20
0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
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Container Fleet Decisions & Deliveries
Million teu
3.5
3
Source: Clarkson
ORDERS
DEMOLITION
2.5
DEMO EST.
DELIVERIES
2
SCH. DELIV.
1.5
1
0.5
HMS est
0
1996
1998
2000
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2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
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2014
35
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Million dwt
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Soucrces:
Sources: Fearnleys
Fearnleys &
& Clarkson
Clarkson
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Bunker Price & Panamax T/C
80
‘000 USD/d
USD/t
70
800
700
T/C 12 m Panamax
60
600
HVF Rdam
50
500
Increased
Focus
on
Fuel
Economy
40
30
400
300
20
200
10
100
0
Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
0
Source: Fearnleys
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Containership Fuel Consumption by Size & Speed
370
Size in teu
11 K
105
Slow-steaming open for substantial cost savings
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ULTRA LARGE
from 25k to 17k
(370 - 105 = 265 t)
x USD 625 per t =
about USD 165,000
reduction per day
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Source: Maersk Post
50% reduction over period.
Considerably smaller reduction
per teu transported due to
slowsteaming
-5%
-13%
-11%
-12%
-3%
-10%
Target
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Target
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ECO SHIPS – CENTRAL ISSUES
Environmental benefits
Less and cleaner fuel
What about Company Economics ?
-
Eco Ship Newbuilding orders will delay market upturn
Additional costs for fuel saving measures ?
Retrofitting / New ship ? - Future bunker price ?
Vast majority of conventional vessels will decide rate levels
Lack of ability to skim future market peaks by speading up
- Higher total fleet income per capital invested when
using larger number of medium age vessels in fairly
healthy markets
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‘000 USD
Panamax R/V Costs 4,500 n.m.
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Source: HMS
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PANAMAX BREAK-EVEN RATES
New Eco Ship
Price
usd 27.0 m
Res. Value (300 USD/ldt) usd 3.6 m
Rest life/Calc.interest 25 yrs/8%
Capital element
~ 7,000 usd/d
Operating cost *
6,500 usd/d
Calculated B/E
13,500 usd/d
Bunker advantage
200 usd/t
600 usd/t
1,000 usd/t
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10-yr Old
usd 13.5 m
usd 3.6 m
15 yrs/8%
~ 4,100 usd/d
6,500 usd/d
10,600 usd/d
(270 days at sea)
~ 900 usd/d
~ 2,700 usd/d
~ 4,400 usd/d
Source: HMS
January 2013
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‘000 USD/d
Source: HMS
Investment 27 m USD
Bunker price & voyage rate in USD/t
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