Transcript Slide 1

World Economic and Trade Outlook
The World of Trade Data
IMSF 2009 Annual Meeting
May 4-6, 2009
New Orleans, LA
Elizabeth Rouhani
Consultant
Global Commerce and Transport
IHS Global Insight
Global Insight was
founded in 2001
with the merger of
WEFA (est. 1963) and
DRI (est. 1968).
In the 7 years that
followed, we expanded
our offerings and
expertise through
key acquisitions.
In October 2008,
Global Insight became
part of the IHS family.
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
The Business Cycle is Not Dead
The World Economy Recovers Starting in 2010
(Percent change for the world economy)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1980
1984
1988
1992
Real GDP
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
1996
2000
2004
Industrial Production
2008
2012
Economic Performance Varies by Region
Developed Country Economies Are Shrinking
(Real GDP, percent change)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
North
America
Western
Europe
Japan
Other Emerging MideastSubAmericas Europe N. Africa Saharan
Africa
2007
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2008
2009
2010
Other
AsiaPacific
World Seaborne Tonnage Falls 2.8% in
2009
(Percent Change in Tonnage of World Sea Trade)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2003
2004
-2
-4
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
World Container Trade Volume Down
5.8%in 2009
(Percent Change in Volume of Container Trade, in TEUs)
20
15
10
5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-5
-10
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World Trade Service
 16 Trade Concepts
TOTAL TRADE
VALUE (Nom-Real)
SEA
CONTAINER
TONS
GENERAL
CARGO
40’
20’
TEUs
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TOTAL TRADE
METRIC TONS
AIR
DRY
BULK
LIQUID
BULK
OTHER
 70 Country/regions (World)
 77 ISIC Commodity categories
 History
 Value 1980
 Tons 1995
 20 years forecast horizon
 Updated quarterly
Sources for Trade and other Indicators
UN
Statistics
Canada*
US Census
Bureau
OECD
Government
Agencies
IHS
Global Insight
World Trade
Service
Ports
Eurostat
Industry
Public
Sources
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Others
UN Data Experience





85% of trade is reported in weight.
Late reporting: 2 year lag for some countries
Data revisions for timeseries
Mirror trade discrepancies
Countries do not report all their trade




Saudi Arabia exports to Taiwan
– Taiwan not official member state of UN, therefore cannot
show their trade.
Areas, nes
9310 SITC Special Transaction commodity
Unit Values inconsistencies
Commodity
Rice,milled,semi-milled
Concept
Value ('000$)
Tons
Unit Value
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Direction
Reporter
Partner
SITC
Exports
076
056
0423
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
$ 8,470.00 $ 9,317.00 $ 10,248.70 $ 11,273.57 $ 12,400.93
4,982
5,647
6,405,438
6,263
6,703
1.7
1.65
0.0016
1.8
1.85
UN – EUROSTAT data differences
 Reconciliation of trade statistics…is it possible?
 Main difference is the methodology for reporting.
– Belgium maintains 2 different trade datasets
National Concept
Country of
Origin for Imports
United
Nations
Belgium
EU Concept
Country of
Consignments
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Eurostat
US Census Bureau
 All methods data – vessel, air, and container
 Custom Districts
– Port level
 HS 10 digit or 6 digit
 Only a few commodities have been difficult to size
– Fertilizers
– Coal
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WTS vs Other Sources
 Ports
 PIERS
 Other Sources
–
–
–
–
Our numbers are based on final destination
No transshipments
No military cargo
For containers, it is based on full not empty.
• Do not account for container movements
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
Snapshot of the Navigator
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
Thank You!
Elizabeth Rouhani
[email protected]