Transcript Preliminary Observations of the Myanmar Agricultural Sector

Agriculture and Food Security
in Myanmar
Gary C. Jahn
Agriculture Development Officer
USAID
The contents do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Sources
• Michigan State University / MDRI Agriculture and
Food Security Diagnostic for Myanmar (USAID 2013)
• USAID 2013 Land Tenure and Property Rights
Assessment of Myanmar
• ASH Center Studies 2009-2012
• ADB Agriculture Sector Assessment, Myanmar 20122014
• Discussion Paper No. 63. Agricultural Policies and
Development of Myanmar’s Agriculture Sector (IDE
2006)
Asia
Source: http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/asia/_derived/index.htm_txt_map-of-asia.gif
Potential of Myanmar for Agriculture
High Potential
• Exceptional resources (water, land, location, climate)
– Water: 10 times as much per capita as China and India; 2 times as
much as Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh
– Land: 14 million acres virgin and fallow; 83 million acres of forest
– Strategic location: near major regional markets
• Diverse ecosystems  diversification potential
• Relatively low population pressure
• High potential for increased land use
Population Densities
Population
Land area (sq
mi)
Density per sq
mi
Myanmar (Burma)
47,382,633
253,954
187
Cambodia
13,881,427
68,154
204
Thailand
64,631,595
197,595
327
1,313,973,713
3,600,927
365
84,402,966
125,622
672
1,095,351,995
1,147,949
954
147,365,352
51,703
2,850
Country
China
Vietnam
India
Bangladesh
Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934666.html
How crowded is Myanmar?
How crowded is Myanmar?
How big is Myanmar?
Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934666.html
Percentage of land used for
agriculture by each country
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS
So how does Myanmar compare to
the region?
•
•
•
•
•
GDP per capita?
Farm income?
% in poverty?
Food security: affordability, availability, safety?
Malnutrition?
Low incomes, high poverty
South Korea
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Vietnam
Myanmar
Agricultural Poverty
income per
(%<
worker $1.25/day)
$19,807
$6,680
4
$730
3
$706
8
$507
11
$434
5
$367
4
$194
26
Status of Myanmar in Region
Source: CIA World Factbook - accurate as of January 1, 2012
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=67
Food Security in Region
Malaysia
Vietnam
India
Myanmar
Thailand
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Nepal
Cambodia
Malnutrition: Deaths per 100,000
Source: WHO, World Bank, UNESCO, CIA , country databases for global health and causes of
death. http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/malnutrition/by-country/
High levels of food insecurity:
Stunting by state/region
Lowest % of agricultural products
imported (2010)
Equatorial
Guinea
2 American Samoa
3 Singapore
4 Argentina
5 India
China, Hong
6
Kong SAR
7 Thailand
8 Republic of Korea
9 Australia
United States of
10
America
11 Zambia
12 Brazil
13 China
1
2.40 %
2.87 %
2.94 %
2.95 %
2.97 %
3.85 %
4.06 %
4.42 %
4.53 %
4.53 %
4.63 %
4.82 %
4.95 %
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx; http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/200908302449/Related-news-fromSaudi/saudi-arabia-food-a-agricultural-imports-to-grow-by-25-in-2009.html
Highest % of agricultural products
imported (2010)
11
Haiti
30.11 %
12
Sao Tome
and Principe
28.85 %
13
Tonga
14
Cape Verde
15
Tuvalu
16
Yemen
17
Samoa
18
Myanmar
28.22 %
27.54 %
27.44 %
27.15 %
26.50 %
25.54 %
19
Solomon
Islands
25.41 %
20
Senegal
24.94 %
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx; http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/barbados_news/182495.html; http://www.presstv.ir/detail/37413.html
Poverty & food security indicators
In Southeast Asia, Myanmar has:
• Lowest GDP per capita,
• Low food affordability and availability
• High malnutrition,
• Lowest farm incomes
• High import of agricultural products
Historical Agricultural Performance
• Example: rice & bean exports
http://www.myspace.com/123945320/photos/11106187#%7B%22ImageId%22%3A11106187%7D
World’s Top Rice Exporters 1961
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx
World’s Top Rice Exporters Today
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx
World’s top Bean Exporters 1961
World’s Top Bean Exporters Today
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx
Myanmar rice production
Rice production (millions of tons)
~8 million
ha paddy
~5 million
ha paddy
Why did beans out-perform rice in
Myanmar?
Fujita & Okamoto (2006) found:
• After 1988, sluggish growth in all crops
covered by policy constraints
• But a self-sustaining increase in output of
crops outside the remit of agricultural policy
• Today pulses and beans are Myanmar’s largest
export item
What were these policies?
In the socialist period:
• Farmers required to sell rice to government at
below market prices
• A system of rationing cheap rice to
consumers through shops and cooperatives
• Subsidized transport for rice – lowering price
in boader areas
• Government monopoly on rice exports
What was the result?
• Link between supply & demand broken
• Domestic rice prices & farm income kept
artificially low
• Farmers had no incentive (or means) to
increase production;
• Remote areas lacked incentive to produce
cheap rice
• No market driven demand for improved
technology
What about beans?
• No compulsory sales to government at below
market price.
• No rationing
• No government export monopoly
• Bean prices rose in response to increased
demand inside AND outside Myanmar
• Production rose in response to increase
demand for beans; demand for technology
Why is agricultural productivity low?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Poor policies
Poor water control
High transport and transaction costs
Conflict
Land access, ownership, use
Limited budgets for key supporting ministries
Structure of agricultural support institutions
Traders well-organized, farmers not
Weak data
Let’s discuss current
agricultural policies
and
how they are affecting
agricultural development and
food security.