Transcript chapter4

CHAPTER 4 : HR PLANNING
(第四章人力资源规划)
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MAIN CONTENTS
THE TASK FOR HRP
 THE MAKEUP OF HRP
 FORCASTING TECHNICS

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THE TASK FOR HRP （第一节人力规划的
任务 ）
 What
is HRP?
 The Content of HRP
 The Function of HRP
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1. What is HRP （p113）?
HRP (人力资源规划) is a process of scientific
analyzing and anticipating the future supply
（供给） of and demand （需求）for human
resources in the enterprise operating in a
changeable environment so as to have the
right people at the right time for the right place
by taking some strategies and policies.
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1. What is HRP?
The Basis for HRP （p118）
 Operation strategy and objectives
 Demand and supply forecasts
 The Labor market
 The
bugets
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2.The Content of H R P（p114－p117）
 Overall

HRP(总体规划)
HR business plan(业
务计划)
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Overall Plan
Functional Plan
Specific Scheme
Job Design scheme
Post management plan
Job Analysis scheme
Supplement scheme
Allocation Plan
Replacement scheme
Training scheme
HRP
Development Plan
Promotion scheme
Performance scheme
Appraisal Plan
Appraisal scheme
Distribution scheme
Motivation Plan
Motivation scheme
Benefit scheme
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3.The Function of HRP
To facilitate realizing the organization
strategy goals
 To cope with the change of environments

To foresee the future shortage and
surplus of people
 To facilitate other HRM activities

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二、THE MAKEUP OF HRP
(第二节人力资源规划制定)
The Procedure
Collecting information
Forecasts of supply
Forecasts of demand
Forecasts of surplus or shortage
Goal setting and planning
Implementation and
evaluation
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三、FORCASTING TECHNICS
(第三节预测技术)



Demand Forecasting (Statistical/Judgmental)
Supply Forecasting
Demand and Supply Balancing
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1.Demand Forecasting (Judgmental)
Delphi Technique(德尔菲法p129) is a set of
procedures originally developed by the Rand
Corporation(兰德 公司) in the late 1940s. The
future HR demand is predicted based on a
group of experts’ experience and intuition. Its
purpose is to obtain the most reliable
consensus of opinion of a group of experts.
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步骤：
（1）选择专家，确定问题，设计问卷，把问卷寄
给专家
 （2）由各专家背靠背独立完成，并提出相应意见
方案。
 (3) 人力部门回收第一轮，然后统计整理后，
 （4）把问卷结果复印件寄给专家，
 （5）请专家再次提出方案
 （6）重复3、4、5步，直到获得比较一致的看法。
 注意事项：征求意见的问题具体，问题不能过多。

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1.Demand Forecasting (Judgmental)
The Manager Estimate（经理预测法/主观判断法）
The future demand is forecasted by managers
on the basis of the increase and decrease of
future business of one’s department. It is
usually bottom-up technique.
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1.Demand Forecasting (Statistical)
Ratio Analysis（比率分析法p129） is the process
of determining future HR demand by
computing an exact ratio between a business
factor and the number of employees needed.
For example, a hospital has 10,000 patients
and 500 nurses ，the ratio is thus 10,000:500
or 20:1. This ratio means that for every
20patients it needs one nurse. If the hospital
anticipates an increase for next year of 1000
patients, How many additional nurses need to
hire?
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1.Demand Forecasting (Statistical)
Scatter Diagram(散点分析法p130)
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1.Demand Forecasting (Statistical)

Regression Analysis/Trend
Analysis （回归分析法 p130）

Y＝a＋bx
9 10 x
x
=55
人数 500 480 490 510 520 540 560 550 580 620 y
y
=5350
年度
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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xy
=30550
x 2
=385
Example： Please predict
 b
a
human resources needed for
n
n
the13th and 15th year based
n(  xy)   x   y
b
on the workforce size for X
n( x 2 )  ( x ) 2
company in the past 10 years .
y
x
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2.Supply forecasting
Executive Replacement Charts(管理人员接替图
p132）
It is a map used to forecast the future
managers replace and supply .This concise
map must show possible replacement
candidates as well as their performance and
promotion potential.
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2.Supply forecasting
Executive Replacement Model(人员接替模型
133－p134）
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2.Supply forecasting
Markov Analysis/Transitional matrices （马尔科
夫分析法/转移矩阵法 p135）
The future HR supply is predicted based
on past mobility or shift trends.
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3. Demand & Supply Balancing
 Staff Shortages (调节不足)
 ●Working overtime or employing temporary
workers.
●redesigning departments.
 ● Outsourcing
 ● transferring

● External recruiting
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3. Demand & Supply Balancing
 Staff
Surpluses
 ●Increasing sales volume, opening up new
products
 And markets.
 ●Improving Product quality
 ● Natural attrition—as workers leave they are
not replaced.
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3. Demand & Supply Balancing(p134）
Staff Surpluses
 ● Reducing working-- time
 ●Training
 ● Early retirements program
 ●Lay-off(临时性停工)
 ● Job-sharing(工作分享)
 ● Redundancy

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思考

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
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

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
这儿有八种人，你准备怎么安排他们？
（１）
（２）
（３）
（４）
（５）
（６）
（７）
（８）
勇敢但不计后果；
点子多但不听话；
有本事但过于谦虚；
听话但没有原则；
踏实但没有创意；
能力强但不善合作；
机灵但不踏实；
是将才但有野心．
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案例分析
 在企业管理实践中，管理者经常遇到一些问
题，员工被人挖走，员工跳槽了，企业要发
展，但缺乏适应企业发展所需要的人才，若
你是管理者，怎么办？
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