Transcript Chapter 5

Chapter 5
Poverty,
Inequality, and
Development
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The Growth Controversy:
Seven Critical Questions
• What is the extent of relative inequality, and
how is this related to the extent of poverty?
• Who are the poor?
• Who benefits from economic growth?
• Does rapid growth necessarily cause
greater income inequality?
• Do the poor benefit from growth?
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5-2
The Growth Controversy:
Seven Critical Questions
• Are high levels of inequality always bad?
• What policies can reduce poverty?
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5-3
Measuring Inequality and
Poverty
• Measuring Inequality
– Size distributions (quintiles, deciles)
– Lorenz curves
– Gini coefficients
– Functional distributions
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5-4
Table 5.1 Typical Size Distribution of
Personal Income in a Developing Country by
Income Shares—Quintiles and Deciles
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5-5
Figure 5.1 The Lorenz Curve
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5-6
Figure 5.2 The Greater the Curvature of the
Lorenz Line, the Greater the Relative
Degree of Inequality
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5-7
Figure 5.3 Estimating the Gini
Coefficient
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5-8
Figure 5.4 Four Possible Lorenz
Curves
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5-9
Figure 5.5 Functional Income
Distribution in a Market Economy: An
Illustration
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5-10
Measuring Inequality and
Poverty
• Measuring Absolute Poverty
– Headcount Index
– Total poverty gap
TPG  i 1 (Yp  Yi )
H
– Where Yp is the absolute poverty line
– Yi is income of person I
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5-11
Figure 5.6 Measuring the Total
Poverty Gap
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5-12
Measuring Inequality and
Poverty
• Measuring Absolute Poverty
– Average poverty gap
TPG
APG 
H
– Where H is number of persons
– TPG is total poverty gap
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5-13
Measuring Inequality and
Poverty
• Measuring Absolute Poverty
– Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure
H
1
P 
n
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
(
Y

Y
)
 p i
i 1
Yp
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Measuring Inequality and
Poverty:
• Measuring Absolute Poverty
– The Human Poverty Index (HPI)
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5-15
Poverty, Inequality, and Social
Welfare
• What’s so bad about inequality?
• Dualistic development and shifting Lorenz
curves: some stylized typologies
– Traditional sector enrichment (see Figure 5.7)
– Modern sector enrichment (see Figure 5.8)
– Modern sector enlargement (see Figure 5.9)
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5-16
Figure 5.7 Improved Income
Distribution under the TraditionalSector Enrichment Growth Typology
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5-17
Figure 5.8 Worsened Income
Distribution under the Modern-Sector
Enrichment Growth Typology
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5-18
Figure 5.9 Crossing Lorenz Curves in
the Modern-Sector Enlargement
Growth Typology
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5-19
Poverty, Inequality, and Social
Welfare
• Kuznets’ inverted-U hypothesis
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5-20
Figure 5.10 The “Inverted-U”
Kuznets Curve
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5-21
Table 5.2 Selected Income
Distribution Estimate
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5-22
Table 5.3 Income and Inequality in
Selected Countries
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5-23
Figure 5.11 Kuznets Curve with
Latin American Countries
Identified
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5-24
Figure 5.12 Plot of Inequality Data
for Selected Countries
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5-25
Poverty, Inequality, and Social
Welfare
• Growth and inequality
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5-26
Figure 5.13 Long-Term Economic
Growth and Income Inequality, 19651996
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5-27
Figure 5.14 Change in Inequality in
Selected Countries, with or without
Growth
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5-28
Absolute Poverty: Extent and
Magnitude
• Extreme Poverty
– $1-a-day headcount shows some progress
– Incidence of extreme poverty is uneven
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5-29
Table 5.4 Regional Poverty
Incidence, 2004
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5-30
Table 5.5 Poverty Incidence in
Selected Countries
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5-31
Table 5.5 Poverty Incidence in
Selected Countries (continued)
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5-32
Absolute Poverty: Extent and
Magnitude
• Growth and poverty
– Impact on per capita growth
– Limited saving and investment by rich in poor
countries
– Impact on productivity
– Lack of home demand
– Incentives for public participation in the
development process
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5-33
Economic Characteristics of
Poverty Groups
• Rural Poverty
• Women and poverty (See chapter 8 for
more detail)
• Ethnic minorities, indigenous populations,
and poverty
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5-34
Table 5.6 Poverty: Rural versus
Urban
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5-35
Table 5.7 Indigenous Poverty in
Latin America
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The Range of Policy Options:
Some Basic Considerations
• Areas of intervention
– Altering the functional distribution
– Mitigating the size distribution
– Moderating (reducing) the size distribution at
upper levels
– Moderating (increasing) the size distribution at
lower levels
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5-37
The Range of Policy Options:
Some Basic Considerations
• Policy options
– Changing relative factor prices
– Progressive redistribution of asset ownership
– Progressive taxation
– Transfer payments and public provision of
goods and services
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5-38
Summary and Conclusions: The
Need for a Package of Policies
• Policies to correct factor price distortions
• Policies to change the distribution of assets,
power, and access to education and
associated employment opportunities
• Policies of progressive taxation and directed
transfer payments
• Policies designed to build capabilities and
human and social capital of the poor
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5-39
Case Study: Bangladesh
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5-40
Concepts for Review
• Absolute poverty
• Factor-price distortions
• Asset ownership
• Factor share
distribution of income
• Character of economic
growth
• Deciles
• Disposable income
• Elasticity of factor
substitution
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• Factors of production
• Foster-GreerThorbecke (FGT)
index
• Functional distribution
of income
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Concepts for Review (cont’d)
• Gini coefficient
• Lorenz curve
• Headcount index
• Neoclassical priceincentive model
• Human Poverty Index
• Income inequality
• Indirect taxes
• Kuznets curve
• Land reform
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• Personal distribution of
income
• Poverty gap
• Progressive income
tax
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Concepts for Review (cont’d)
• Public consumption
• Quintiles
• Size distribution of
income
• Redistribution policies
• Subsidy
• Regressive tax
• Workfare programs
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5-43
Appendix 5.1: Appropriate Technology and
Employment Generation: The Price
Incentive Model
• Choice of techniques
• Factor Price distortions and appropriate
technology
• Possibilities of Labor-Capital substitution
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5-44
Figure A5.1.1 Choice of Techniques:
The Price Incentive Model
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5-45
Appendix 5.2: The AhluwaliaChenery Welfare Index
• Constructing poverty-weighted index of
social welfare
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5-46
Table A5.2.1 Income Distribution and
Growth in the Twelve Selected
Countries
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5-47
2009 ‫ضریب جینی چند کشور در سال‬
Country
UN Gini
Bangladesh
33.4
Brazil
57
Iran
43
Jamaica
45.5
Kenya
42.5
Malaysia
49.2
Paraguay
58.4
Philippines
44.5
Sri Lanka
40.2
United Kingdom
36
United States
40.8
Japan
24.9
Source: www.un.org
 Inequality and Absolute Poverty in Third World
Countries: A Review of the Evidence
‫ نابرابری و فقر مطلق در کشورهای جهان سوم‬:‫ بررس ی شواهد‬
:‫ارائه سه شاخص نابرابری در چند کشور‬
Country
Bangladesh
Brazil
Iran
Jamaica
Kenya
Malaysia
Paraguay
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Costa Rica
UN R/P 10%
7.5
51.3
17.2
17.3
13.6
22.1
65.4
15.5
11.1
UN R/P 20%
4.9
21.8
9.7
9.8
8.2
12.4
25.7
9.3
6.9
UN Gini
33.4
57
43
45.5
42.5
49.2
58.4
44.5
40.2
37.8
15.6
49.8
Source: United Nation Development program: www.hdr.undp.org/en/
Relation between income per capita and poverty
‫رابطه بین درآمد سرانه و فقر در کشورهای در حال توسعه‬
CONTURY
PRODUCTION2005
%under poverty line un gini
Brazil
Colombia
Guatemala
Peru
Venezuela
Indonesia
5,870,210
3,474,207
2,322,111
3,339,587
6,834,238
1,635,715
31
49.2
56.2
44.5
47
17.8
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Malaysia
3,151,962
5,950,542
18
5.1
Source: International monetary found: www.imf.org
united nation Development porogram : www.hdr.undp.org/en
57
58.6
55.1
52
48.2
34.3
43
49.2
‫ کشور که بیشترین درصد جمعیت زیر خط فقر جهانی را دارند‬20
Rank
=1
=1
=1
=1
=1
#6
=7
=7
=7
=7
# 11
# 12
= 13
= 13
= 13
= 13
# 17
# 18
= 19
= 19
Countries
Amount Date
80%
Liberia
2000
80%
Gaza Strip
2007
80%
Haiti
2003
80%
Zimbabwe
2004
80%
Chad
2001
70.2%
Sierra Leone
2004
70%
Suriname
2002
70%
Mozambique
2001
70%
Angola
2003
70%
Nigeria
2007
69%
Swaziland
2006
68%
Burundi
2002
60%
Tajikistan
2007
60%
Bolivia
2006
60%
Rwanda
2001
60%
Comoros
2002
56.2%
Guatemala
2004
55%
Malawi
2004
54%
Senegal
2001
54%
São Tomé and Príncipe
2004
Source: United Nation Development Program: hdr.undp.org
‫ کشور که کمترین درصد جمعیت زیر خط فقر جهانی را دارند‬20
Rank
Countries
= 122
11.2%
= 123
Germany
Croatia
11%
2001
2003
# 125
Canada
10.8%
2005
# 126
Netherlands
10.5%
2005
# 127
Thailand
10%
2004
# 128
Bahamas, The
9.3%
2004
= 129
Mauritius
8%
2006
= 129
China
8%
2006
= 131
Libya
7.4%
2005
= 131
Tunisia
7.4%
2005
= 133
Montenegro
7%
2007
= 133
Ireland
7%
2005
# 135
Serbia and Montenegro
6.5%
2007
# 136
France
6.2%
2004
# 137
Austria
5.9%
2004
# 138
Malaysia
5.1%
2002
# 139
Estonia
5%
2003
# 140
Lithuania
4%
2003
# 141
Taiwan
0.95%
2007
Source: United Nation Development Program: hdr.undp.org
Amount Date
‫موقعیت ایران از لحاظ جمعیت زیر خط فقر جهانی‪:‬‬
‫‪Date‬‬
‫‪Amount‬‬
‫‪Countries‬‬
‫‪Rank‬‬
‫‪2007‬‬
‫‪18%‬‬
‫‪Iran:‬‬
‫‪= 103‬‬
‫‪Source: United Nation Development Program: hdr.undp.org‬‬
‫همچنین به طور متوسط از میان ‪ 141‬کشور ‪ %32.6‬از جمعیت جهان زیر خط فقر جهانی قرار‬
‫دارند‪.‬‬
‫با این فرض اگر جمعیت کره زمین را ‪ 7.5‬میلیارد در نظر بگیریم چیزی حدود ‪ 2.5‬از جمعیت‬
‫جهان در فقر به سر می برند‪.‬‬
‫تعريف مجدد هدف هاي توسعه‪ :‬رشد همراه با توزيع درآمد بهتر‬
‫تجديددد جهددت گیددري اواويددت هدداي توسددعه از تحداددد صددرف بدده حدددادار نددر رشددد توااددد ناخددااص م د بدده سددمت هدددفهاي اجتمددا‬
‫مثل ريشه دن دردن فقر و كاهش اختالف بساار زياد درآمدها در دشورهاي جهان سوم ضرورت دارد‪.‬‬
‫• آيا يك استراتژي اقتصادي صرف مي تواند فقر را برطرف دند؟‬
‫نقش تحلیل اقتصادی‪ :‬توزیع مجدد منافع حاصل از رشد در مقابل توزیع درآمد‬
‫اگر چه بیشتر تحلیل های اقتصادی به نحو عجیبی در باب ارتباط بین رشد و توزیع درآمد ساکت است‪ ،‬بخش بزرگی از‬
‫نظریه ها در واقع ادعا می کنند که توزیع بسیار نابرابر درآمد شرط الزم برای ایجاد رشد سریع اقتصادی است‪ .‬در واقع‪،‬‬
‫در دهه های ‪1960‬و ‪1970‬و تا حدودی در دهه ‪1980‬تایید صریح و ضمنی این نظریه از طرف اقتصاددانان‪ ،‬چه در‬
‫کشورهای توسعه یافته و چه در کشورهای توسعه نیافته‪ ،‬موجب شد که توجه فردی و دسته جمعی آنان از مسااه فقر‬
‫و توزیع درآمد منحرف شود‪.‬‬
‫استدالل اقتصادی اساس ی برای توجه به نابرابری زیاد درآمدها این بود که درآمدهای باالی اشخاص و شرکت ها شرط‬
‫الزم برای ایجاد پس انداز است و این به نوبه ی خود سرمایه گذاری و رشد اقتصادی را از طریق مکانیسمی مانند‬
‫مکانیسم مدل هارود‪-‬دومار‪ ،‬امکان پذیر می کند‪.‬‬
‫استدالل مخالف‬
‫به چهار دایل بسیاری از اقتصاددانان توسعه اکنون بر این باورند که استدالل فوق غلط است و برابری بیشتر در‬
‫کشورهای در حال توسعه در واقع می تواند شرط الزم رشد اقتصادی خود پایدار باشد‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬شیوه ی نادرست پس انداز و سرمایه گذاری توسط ثروتمندان در کشورهای در حال توسعه ی معاصر‬
‫‪ -2‬درآمد کم و سطح نازل زندگی فقرا که منجر به کاهش بهره وری آنان و در نهایت کاهش رشد اقتصادی کشور می‬
‫شود‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬افزایش سطح درآمد فقرا که منجر به افزایش تقاضا برای کاالهای ضروریی که در داخل توایید شده است‪ ،‬مانند‬
‫غذا و پوشاک‪ ،‬افزایش می دهد‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬باالخره‪ ،‬توزیع عادالنه تر درآمدکه از طریق کاهش فقر گسترده حاصل می شود‪ ،‬می تواند با عمل کردن به صورت‬
‫انگیزه نیرومند مادی و روانی برای مشارکت گسترده ی همگان در فرایند توسعه‪ ،‬توسعه ی اقتصادی ساام را موجب‬
‫شود‪.‬‬