National Action Plan for Climate Change

Support for the National Water Mission

SATLUJ PUNJAB –UPPER CATCHMENTS Surface water resources inflow to Bhakra -major gap in information To yr: 2050 Temperature

+ 2 degree C –higher in the upper catchment than on plains, may go higher

Precipitation and runoff

some increase in precipitation, poor accuracy

Short term surface water

–to 2020 no significant change; increased melt flows from glaciers, reduced melt from snow.

Medium to long term

from 2020 o o insufficient data to confirm trend gradually effects of increased glacier and snow melts will affect inflows to Bhakra. o Bhakra can to an extent provide a buffer but glacier loss will be significant.

Require:

glacier mass, snow and glacier melt response assessments

10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000

SATLUJ PUNJAB –LOWER CATCHMENTS

By mid century: + 2 degree C Precipitation:+ 10-15% mainly runoff, limited recharge Evapotranspiration: little change Increased variability of rainfall patterns o Groundwater 45% above sustainable levels o Sustainable GW-key to buffer against CC o Conjunctive SW and GW management

Joga Distributary: Simulated Changes in Groundwater Storage

Reference 120 day rice Direct seeded rice Reduced losses Rice Area reduced

Year of simulation

KHIPRA SUB BASIN MADHYA PRADESH

Climate Change

: To 2050 : Temperature: + 2 degree C Precipitation: + about 15% increase in annual rainfall +23% in monsoon rains some decline in the non monsoon rains.

Increased variability of rainfall patterns Present Issues WATER QUANTITY + WATER QUALITY o limited surface water, groundwater is key resource o groundwater overexploitation in some parts o yield of surface water /groundwater more than requirements, o Most water is lost during rainy season o WQ issues river and tributary streams very heavily polluted and go dry for periods-no base flow

CAUVERY DELTA TAMIL NADU

Climate Change to 2050

: +2 Degrees C No significant change in annual rainfall South west monsoon would reduce by 10% North east monsoon would increase by 10 15% Increased variability in rainfall patterns Sea Level rise of 0.3 metres PRESENT ISSUES limited surface water during SW monsoon •erratic, very intense NE monsoon causes flooding. •saline intrusion, low lying land is unable to drain. •groundwater used to supplement surface water -issues of overexploitation and salinity intrusion. •parts of the coast are eroding river mouths suffer from blockages causing problems for fishing and flooding

Q: How to plan for climate change?

• • • • Need a systematic WR planning process for sub basins.

Strategic Planning to follow IWRM, participative and iterative Plans must be mainstreamed into departments and districts for implementation CC. projections presently not adequate to make concrete planning decisions-but can support strategies and general direction.

IWRM UNIT SPECIALIST INPUTS TO SUB-BASIN PLANNING -Climate Projections -Hydrological Response at Basin Level to CC -Basin Level Demand Assessment/Water Balance -Trans boundary Consultations -Research

Strategic framework plan for three sub basins

Strengthen agriculture and marketing Conjunctive water management conservation to reduce GW demand Water resources and catchment management and GW recharge Water quality, pollution Satluj √ √ √ √ Flood and Salinity Management Kshipra √ √ √ √ Soft coastal protection Water supply and sanitation Institutional development, regulatory and support measures Reasearch Studies √ √ √ Glaciers & snow, Conjunctive use Conjunctive use Cauvery √ √ √ √ √ √ Hydrodynamic, GW and coastal modelling

Strategic framework plan for India Water Systems

CWC RBOs Institutes States Support consultants Data Management Specialist Inputs to Sub Basin Planning Sub Basin Framework Planning Integration of Sub Basin Plans into Basin Plans Support for Institutional Framework, Capacity building awareness Sub Project Implementation and Investment √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Eight year programme

Project Preparation and Design Project Implemenation Phases Project 1 Project 2 Project 3