Conditional Climatology Tools

AvnFPS 3.2

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Contributors

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Contributors

• Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters) • Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center) • David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN) • Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou) • Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio) • Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City) • Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City) 3

Objectives

• Describe Conditional Climatology – Definition – Benefits/Limitations • Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools – Wind Rose – CIG/VSBY Distributions – CIG/VSBY Trends • Discuss current forecast methods/limitations • Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit • Interpret and apply the output – Case studies – Local case studies 4

What is Conditional Climatology?

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A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions.

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Examples:

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Pattern Recognition Conceptual Models Local Rules of Thumb Forecaster Experience

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Role of Conditional Climatology in Aviation Forecasting

• 1960’s – Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF • 1970’s to present – Numerical models – MOS • 2000’s – Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast process 6

Benefits of Conditional Climatology?

• Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends • Limits over forecasting of rare events • Increases forecaster confidence • Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance 7

Limitations of Conditional Climatology

• Can not be used alone!

• Does not discriminate physical processes • May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events • Not fool proof 8

Wind Rose Tool

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Applied Wind Rose

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CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool

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Why are we here?

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Why are we here?

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Why are we here?

SOO Intern Lead General 14

Why are we here?

The SOO is killing me with all this Training

SOO Intern Lead General 15

CIG/VSBY Trend Tool

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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What Tools Do you Use?

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What Tools Do you Use?

• Current Observations • Satellite • MOS • Soundings / BUFKIT • Model Data • Local Studies • Advection • Convection • Persistence 24

What Tools Do you Use?

• Current Observations • Satellite • MOS • Soundings / BUFKIT • Model Data • Local Studies • Advection • Convection • Persistence 25

Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds 26

Models

• Relative Humidity???

• Model Clouds???

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Model Soundings?

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BUFKIT – RH and Clouds

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Relative Humidity = Clouds?

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Adding “Model” Clouds

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RH with respect to ICE or Water?

RH With Respect to Water RH With Respect to Ice 32

RH Time Section

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Model Clouds and Bases

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How good are NWP Models at predicting:

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Moisture?

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It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution?

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Cloud Ceilings?

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Model Output Statistics!

• Good idea.

• Removes biases.

• Adds Climatology.

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MAV MOS

• Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio? • Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility Summer (Apr-Sept) Winter (Oct-Mar) 37

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MAV MOS

• Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z) • Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

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MOS - Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

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NGM MOS

• Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern • Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive • 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical 41

We need more

• Rules of thumb?

• “in this situation, the cloud base “usually” remains IFR until late morning.” • CLIMATOLOGY!!! • “Conditional” Climatology 42

Example 18Z TAF John F. Kennedy International Airport 43

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17Z METAR

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METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T01940161

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Situation

• SE Flow Prevails • When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

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12Z NAM-eta

(Fcst Hr = 05) Valid 17Z

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15Z RUC

(Fcst Hr = 02) Valid 17Z

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12Z NAM-eta

(Fcst Hr = 14) Valid 02Z

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15Z RUC

(Fcst Hr = 11) Valid 02Z

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GFS MOS

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NGM MOS

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Current TAF

• KJFK 311509Z 311512 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1617 SCT007 • FM1700 14009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140 • FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040 • FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002= 55

Joint Distribution

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default)

• May-Jun • 16-18Z • SE Wind • 600-1000’ • Un-restricted Visibility 56

Ceiling Distribution

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default)

• May-Jun • 16-18Z • SE Wind • 600-1000’ • Un-restricted Visibility 57

Visibility Distribution

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default)

• May-Jun • 16-18Z • SE Wind • 600-1000’ • Un-restricted Visibility 58

Ceiling Distribution

• Apr-mid Jun • 13-22Z • S-E Wind • 500-900’ • Un-restricted Visibility 59

Visibility Distribution

• Apr-mid Jun • 13-22Z • S-E Wind • 500-900’ • Un-restricted Visibility 60

What Would You Forecast?

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What Was Forecast?

• • • • • • • FTUS41 KOKX 311700 • TAFJFK • TAF • KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002 FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050= 62

TAF based on Climatology?

TAF KJFK 311728Z 311818 14010KT P6SM BKN007 FM2200 14008KT 3SM BR OVC004 FM0000 14008KT 1/2SM FG VV002 ……

ACTUAL TAF (no CC)

• • • • • • • KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002 FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050= 63

KJFK 311751Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T01890161 10194 20172 56004= KJFK 311851Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T01890161= KJFK 311951Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T01890161= KJFK 312051Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T01830156 58013= KJFK 312151Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T01780161= KJFK 312155Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 = KJFK 312214Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $= KJFK 312251Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 KJFK 312351Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 10194 20167 56008= SLP204 T01720161= SLP204 T01670161 KJFK 010051Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T01670161= KJFK 010151Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T01670161 $= KJFK 010232Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $= KJFK 010238Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010251Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T01670161 58001 $= KJFK 010324Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010351Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T01670167 $= KJFK 010451Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000 T01720167 401940167 $= KJFK 010551Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P0000 60000 T01720167 10172 20167 58005 $= KJFK 010651Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T01720167 $= KJFK 010751Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T01720167 $= KJFK 010851Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 56017 $= KJFK 010911Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010925Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010951Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 $= KJFK 011005Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011014Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011051Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T01780172 $= KJFK 011151Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T01830178 10183 20167 58002 $= KJFK 011303Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4=

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KJFK 011340Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4= KJFK 011351Z 19007KT 0SM R04R/1600V4500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP173 T01940183=

Best times to use Conditional Climatology

• During “steady state” quiet weather situations. • Fog/Stratus events – Radiation Fog – Advection Fog – Marine Stratus • Prevailing Wind • Determining Onset and Dissipation Times.

• Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters orientation.

• New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists 65

What You Need to Do

• Develop local Case Studies with your Airports and TAFs to learn how best to integrate the NEW tools into your TAF’s and your forecast operations.

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Summary

• Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process through increased forecaster confidence. • Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques.

• Conditional Climatology can improve TAF quality and service.

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AVNFPS 3.2 Web Pages

• Main Page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/AvnFPS3.2.html

• Supplemental Instructions: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/CS-DH-3.2.doc

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Pre-View - AVNFPS 3.3

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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

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Thank You!

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References

• BUFKIT: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/ • MOS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml

• MODCV: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/ • MODELS: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ 73

References

• Old Forecast Tools (Ouija Board, Crystal Ball, Dart Board and the “Magic” 8 Ball) available at Wal-Mart, Target and other fine stores!

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