Transcript Siemens Westinghouse 501D Fleet = 221 Units thru 2010

This Web posting is free for the personal use of
persons who paid to attend the 2008 WTUI conference.
Distribution to non-registered attendees is prohibited.
If your business has a need for market data or
forecasting for turbomachinery industry, please contact:
Mark Axford
713 – 802 – 9654
[email protected]
Rob McNamee
678 – 393 - 9702
[email protected]
WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008
GT Market Review of 2007
WTUI Annual Meeting – 8 April 2008
Before We Begin…..
How many WTUI attendees feel
that GT orders for 2007 were:
- Higher than 2006 ?
- Lower than 2006 ?
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008 2008
GT Orders Summary - 2007
• Worldwide orders up 44% from 2006
from 48,827mw to 70,121
• Extraordinary level of orders from
Saudi and other Middle East countries
• US Gas Turbine orders down 12% :
2006 = 6598 mw
2007 = 5801 mw
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008 2008
.
Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE
1975 - 2007
Reported Orders
MW
> 3mw unit size 1975-1989
>10mw unit size 1990-2007
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
Worldwide
Prepared by Axford Consultants LP
April 2008
1995
2000
USA
2005
.
GT orders –Middle
East Only 1980 - 2007
Reported Orders
MW
> 3mw unit size 1975-1989
>10mw unit size 1990-2007
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Mid East
Axford Consultants LP
Apr 2008
2005
Gas Turbines –. US Only 1980 - 2007
Reported Orders
MW
> 3mw unit size 1975-1989
>10mw unit size 1990-2007
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
USA
Axford Consultants LP
Apr 2008
2000
Mid East
2005
. – US Only 1980 - 2007
Gas Turbines
Reported Orders
MW
20000
> 3mw unit size 1975-1989
>10mw unit size 1990-2007
2000 -2001 bubble
truncated for clarity
Since 2003 Mid East
GT orders 3X of US
10000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
USA
Axford Consultants LP
Apr 2008
2000
Mid East
2005
Gas Turbines –. US Only 2002 - 2007
MW
8000
Reported US Orders
>10mw GT unit size
40% Orders annual growth
in orders since 2003 mkt bottom
6000
4000
2000
0
2003
Axford Consultants LP
Apr 2008
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007 Worldwide GT Orders
70121 mw
26%
Middle
East
12%
Africa
Asia
15%
11%
N. Amer
Australia
4%
5%
Latin Amer
Prepared by Axford Consultants LP
Apr 2008
27% Europe
Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007
.
Reported
Orders
>10 MW Unit Size
MW
80000
60000
27%
40000
36%
20000
44%
26%
49%
46%
0
2003
GE
2004
Siemens -W
Axford Consulting LP Apr08
2005
Alstom
2006
Mitsubishi
2007
Other
Data Source: McCoy Power Reports
Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007
.
MW
Aeros vs Frames
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
12%
10%
34%
90%
10%
88%
90%
90%
2003
2004
Frames
Axford Consulting LP April 2008
2005
2006
2007
Aeros
Data Source: McCoy Power Reports
Gas Turbines - WORLDWIDE 2003 -2007
.
Aeros vs Frames
MW
Less than 60 mw Only
15000
12000
57%
9000
49%
6000
3000
51%
60%
40%
43%
0
2003
Axford Consulting LP Apr 2008
2004
Frames
2005
Aeros
2006
2007
Data Source: McCoy Power Reports
2007 Worldwide Frame GT Orders
61715 mw (Up 31% from 2006)
13%
Africa
28%
Middle
East
15%
Asia
N. Amer
7%
4%
Australia
Latin Amer 4%
Prepared by Axford Consultants LP
Apr 2008
Europe
29%
N. Amer Frame GT Orders - 2007
Customer
Location
GT Model
MW
SUNCOR ENERGY
Ft McMurray, Alberta
4- GE 7EA
342
NORTHLAND POWER
Thorold, Ontario
1 - GE 7FA
172
TRANS CANADA ENERGY
Toronto, Ontario
2 - Siemens 501F
379
CFE
Baja, Mexico
1 - Siemens 501F
198
UNION FENOSA
Durango, Mexico
2 - Siemens 501F
396
FLORIDA MUNI POWER AGENCY
Florida
1 - GE 7FA
172
WESTAR ENERGY
Kansas
2 - GE 7FA
343
BESICORP-EMPIRE
Rensselaer, NY
2 - GE 7FA
343
FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT
Florida
3 - Mitsubishi 501G
747
GEORGIA POWER
Georgia
2 - Mitsubishi 501G
500
REDDING CITY OF
Redding, CA
1 - Siemens GTX100
47
HAWAIIAN EL
Hawaii
1 - Siemens 501D5
118
CAITHNESS ENERGY
Long Island, NY
1 - Siemens 501F
190
GREAT RIVER ENERGY
Elk River, MN
1 - Siemens 501F
198
O&G INDUSTRIES
Connecticut
2 - Siemens 501F
396
Axford Consultants LP April 2008
2007 Worldwide Aero GT Orders
8407 mw (up 52% from 2006)
4% Australia
22%
Asia
Africa
6%
Latin Amer
10%
Middle
7%
East
Prepared by Axford Consultants LP
19%
Europe
Apr 2008
30%
N. Amer
N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007
GE Wins 1506 MW
Customer
Location
GT Model
ATCO POWER
Alberta, Canada
1- LM60000 PD
42
EAST WINDSOR COGEN
Ontario, Canada
1- LM6000 Sprint
47
EPCOR
Alberta, Canada
1 -LMS100
103
ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE Yuma, AZ
2- LM6000 Sprint
84
SAN DIEGO GAS & ELEC
Miramar, CA
1- LM6000 Sprint
42
J-POWER
Pala, CA
2- LM6000 Sprint
84
LOWER CO RIVER AUTH
Texas
4- LM6000 Sprint
192
AUSTIN ENERGY
Austin, TX
2- LM6000 Sprint
100
CPS ENERGY
San Antonio, TX
4- LM6000 Sprint
200
FIRSTLIGHT POWER
Waterbury, CT
1 - LMS100
103
EAST KENTUCKY POWER
Kentucky
2 - LMS100
103
CONECTIV ENERGY
Cumberland, NJ
1 - LMS100
100
BASIN EL PR COOP
Culbertson, Montana
1 - LMS100
100
TOPAZ POWER
Laredo, TX
2 - LMS100
206
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008
MW
N. Amer Aero GT Orders -2007
Pratt & Rolls win 1422 MW
Customer
Location
GT Model
MW
UNION GAS
Ontario, Canada
3- RB211 MD
NEVADA POWER
Nevada
24- FT8
648
STARWOOD-CALPEAK
Midway, CA
4 - FT8
108
PUERTO RICO ELECTRIC
Puerto Rico
8 - FT8
216
TAMPA ELECTRIC
Florida
10- FT8
270
BP
Alaska
1- RB211 MD
33
MONTGOMERY L'ENERGIA
Lowell, Mass
1 - RR Trent
58
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008
89
Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )
Gas Turbine Orders by Unit Size
2889
3000
2024
2000
50%
888
1000
35%
15%
0
0
Small
10 - 25mw
Medium
26 - 55mw
Large
Jumbo
56 - 125mw
125 - 254 mw
Year 2007 - US Market ( 5801mw )
GT Orders -Simple vs Combined Cycle
41%
Combined
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008
59%
Simple
Year 2004 - 2007 - US Market
GT Orders - Simple vs Combined Cycle
Higher Gas Price = More Simple Cycle
4000
Simple
Combined
3000
2000
1000
0
2004
Axford Consulting LP April 2008
2006
2004
2006
Data Source: McCoy Power Reports
So what’s the forecast
for turbine orders
in 2008
Gas Turbines – 2008 Axford Forecast
Reported Orders .
US
-5%,
Non
US
10%
>10 MW Unit Size
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2004
2005
2006
Non US
Axford Consulting LP April 2008
2007
2008
US
Data Source: McCoy Power Reports
Things To Think About
• Will US Recession reduce Elec Consumption ?
- Axford
Opinion – Yes
• Can Gas Turbines compete with:
- “Clean Coal” with heavy subsidy
- Mandated Wind & Bio fuels programs
•
What if Plug-In Elec cars win 10 - 20% share
•
Will Carbon Tax help or hurt GT business
- In the US ? - In the rest of world ?
•
Will US Gas Prices Stay stabile at $ 9 - 10 ?
- On Btu Basis $100 barrel oil = $ gas
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008
3 0 .0 0
Comparative Cost of Various
Fuels
What
if Natural Gas
price was $ 20 ?
2 5 .0 0
2 0 .0 0
K e y G lo b a l F u e ls o n a
$ p e r M M B T U B a s is
1 5 .0 0
1 0 .0 0
5 .0 0
0 .0 0
G a s o lin e
Axford Consultants LP
April 2008
D ie s e l
C ru d e
N a tu ra l G a s
Coal
N u c le a r
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
That’s all Folks!
Axford Consulting Lp
April 2008