Transcript Outlook for California’s Electricity Supply and Land Use Implications BLM

Outlook for California’s
Electricity Supply
and Land Use Implications
BLM
National Lands
Conference
David Maul
Chris Tooker
California Energy Commission
June 13, 2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Topics
• California’s Electricity System Overview
• Current Supply Activity
• Governor’s Executive Orders
• Land Use Implications
• Proposal to Work Together
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Energy Commission
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State licensing authority
50 MW+ thermal power plants
Related facilities
Time certain process
Public process
Comprehensive review
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California’s Electric System
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Over 1,200 electrical generators
Over 38,000 miles of transmission lines
Linked to western North America
12.9 million customers
Average use - 624 gigawatt hours / day
Projected peak demand - 58,000 MW
40% of western U.S. market
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
The Interconnected Western Grid
Alberta
BC Hydro
Northwest
Wyoming
ID-SPP
Utah
Colorado
Southern Nevada
New Mexico
Arizona
Palo Verde
Page 1
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Peak Load and Capacity Growth in California
8,000
7,000
54,658
6,000
53,335
5,000
MW
52,195
4,000
3,000
50,189
2,000
1,000
615
462
672
621
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
Year
Cumulative Capacity Additions since 1995
Actual Peak Load Since 1995
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
A Country in Transition
Percentage changes in population from April 1, 1990 through July 1, 1999
Fastest-growing states
Slowest-growing/shrinking states
MAINE
+2.0%
WASH.
+18.3%
N.D.
-0.8%
ORE.
+16.7%
W. VA.
+0.7%
IDAHO
+24.3%
NEV.
+50.6%
PA
+0.9%
IOWA
+3.3%
UTAH
+23.6%
N.Y.
+1.1%
MASS.
+2.6%
R.I.
-1.3%
CONN.
-0.2%
COLO.
+23.1%
ARIZ.
+30.4%
GEORGIA
+20.2%
TEXAS
+18.0%
FLORIDA
+16.8%
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Aging Facilities
Power
Plants
(#)
971
Power
Plants
(%)
Over 40
128
13.2
17,200
32.1
Over 30
181
18.6
26,000
48.6
Total
Capacity
(MW)
Capacity
(%)
53,000
Facility Age
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Non-Coincident Peak Demand Reserve Margins
1993 - 1998
20%
18%
16%
Percent
14%
WSCC
12%
California
10%
Southwest
8%
6%
4%
2%
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
0%
Non-Coincident Peak occurs when each region peaks on a different day.
Page 8
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Summer 2001 Coincident Peak Demand
Under Different Temperature Probabilities
And A Functional Competitive Market
(MW)
Total Available Supply
61,184 MW
60,000
Supply Less
Expected Outages
Megawatts
55,000
50,000
45,000
7% Operating Margin
40,000
Voluntary Load Curtailment
Interruptible Load
35,000
ISO Demand Relief Program
Firm Demand
30,000
1-in-2
1-in-5
1-in-10
Different Temperature Probabilities
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Summer 2001 Coincident Peak Demand
Under Different Temperature Probabilities
And “Outages” Equal to Jan. 11, 2001
(MW)
Total Available Supply
61,184 MW
60,000
Megawatts
55,000
50,000
Supply Less
Outages Reported by CAISO
on Jan. 11, 2001
45,000
7% Operating Margin
40,000
Voluntary Load Curtailment
Interruptible Load
35,000
ISO Demand Relief Program
Firm Demand
30,000
1-in-2
1-in-5
1-in-10
Different Temperature Probabilities
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Power Plants Off-Line
• 1999: 1000 - 5000 MW
• 2000: 2000 - 10,000 MW
• 2001: 10,000 - 15,000 MW
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Options to Resolve Crisis
• Conservation
– operations
– investment funds
• Increased Generation
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peakers
repowers/retool/rerates
baseload
new sites
• Market
– debt
– market structure
– correct market dysfunctions
• Need balanced strategy
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Recent Actions - Supply
• New natural gas generation:
– 28 plants approved - 11.283 MW
– 1,284 MW to be on-line by 7/1/01
– 17 plants in review - 7,335 MW
– 46 applications within 3 months - 11,664 MW
• New renewable generation
– 217 MW on-line this summer
• State (DWR) contracting for power
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Power Plants Approved by the CEC
Since April, 1999
PROJECT / OWNER
Sutter Power
Los Medanos
La Paloma
Delta Energy
High Desert
Moss Landing
Sunrise
Huntington Beach
Blythe
Pastoria
Midway-Sunset
Mountainview
Otay Mesa
Three Mountain
Contra Costa
Elk Hills
Total New Capacity
Approved
Size
(MW)
Location
(County)
500
Sutter
559
Contra Costa
1,048
Kern
880
Contra Costa
720
San Bernardino
1,060
Monterey
320
Kern
450
Orange
520
Riverside
750
Kern
500
Kern
1,056
San Bernardino
510
San Diego
500
Shasta
530
Contra Costa
500
Kern
Status
Expected On-Line Date July 1, 2000
Expected On-Line Date July 1, 2000
Under Construction 65% Complete
Under Construction 40% Complete
Under Construction 1% Complete
Under Construction 15% Commplete
Expected On-Line Date August 1, 2001
Under Construction
Under Construction 1% Complete
Financing
Financing
Financing
Financing
Financing
Financing
Financing
10,403
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Emergency Power Plants Approved by CEC
Project / Owner
(MW)
Location
(County)
Status
United Golden Gate
Hanford SPPE
Wildflower Larkspur
Wildflower Indigo
Alliance Century
Alliance Drews
Calpine King City
GWF Hanford
Calpine Gilroy
Pegasus Energy
Calpeak Escondido
Ramco Chula Vista
(51)
(99)
90
135
40
40
50
99
135
180
49
62
San Mateo
Kings
San Diego
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Bernardino
Monterey
Kings
Santa Clara
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Diego
No site control
Being modified
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Financing
Financing
Financing
Total
880
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Recent Actions - Process
• Established 4-month process
– Peakers
• Established 6-month process
– Clean projects
• Prepared Developers Guide
– Available on CEC Website at:
– www.energy.ca.gov
• Conducted Siting Process OII
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Governor’s Executive Orders
• 6 Executive Orders
• Issued February 8
• Focused on power plants
– Planning
– Siting
– Permitting
– Construction
– Operation
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Governor’s EO’s
Licensing
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Maintained 12-month AFC
Maintained 6-month AFC
Reestablished 4-month AFC
Established 21-day emergency permit
Established 45-day amendment
Established 7-day amendment
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Load/Resource Balance
(ISO area with 7% Operating Reserve at Coincident Peak)
60,000
Megawatts
55,000
1 in 5 Year Peak Demand
1 in 2 Year Peak Demand
50,000
Future Curtailable Load ?
Curtailable Load
Net Imports
Net New Additions
Existing Generation
45,000
40,000
Existing generation excludes
2,500 MW for outages
35,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Value of
Energy Efficiency
• Reduction in Expected Peak Demand
– Jan 2001: -6.2% (-2,091 MW)
– Feb 2001: -8.0% (-2,578 MW)
– March 2001: -9.2% (-2,967 MW)
– April 2001: -9.0% (-2,866 MW)
– May 2001: -10.4% (-3,595 MW)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Impact of Conservation
If
10,000,000 households
shut off two 100 Watt light
bulbs at peak time,
it will result in a demand
saving
of 2,000 MW = 4 Big Power
Plants
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Future Forecast
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June could be ugly
July/August are better
2002 is much better
2003 could be awash in power
Energy and air quality are now on the
forefront of everyone’s minds
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land Use
Implications
• Power plants
– Water supply lines
– Roads
• Transmission lines
• Natural gas pipelines
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land Use
Planning Implications
• Power plants
– Difficult to forecast location
– Complex issues normally resolved
successfully in licensing case
– Planning best handled from a private
developer and land management
perspective
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land Use
Planning Implications
• Transmission lines
• Determine need for new facilities
– CEC’s OII
– WGA’s TL needs study
– CEC/LLNL environmental constraints
study
• Determine land management
constraints
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land Use
Planning Implications
• Natural gas pipelines
• Determine need for new facilities
– CEC’s Natural Gas White Paper
– Industry proposals
– CEC’s power plant gas demand forecast
• Determine land management
constraints
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Interstate Pipeline Proposals
Name
New /
expansion
Capacity
(MMcfd)
Rocky Mountain Supply Region
Kern River Gas Transmission
Expansion
Expansion
Ruby Pipeline
New
Western Canadian Supply Region
PG&E-GTN Pipeline
Expansion
Expansion
Expansion
Tuscarora Gas Transmission Company Pipeline
Expansion
Southwestern Supply Region
Questar Southern Trails Pipeline
New
 To California Border
New
 In California to Long Beach
El Paso Plains-All American Pipeline
New
Transwestern Pipeline
Expansion
North Baja Pipeline
New
Otay Mesa Generating Company Pipeline
New
Sonoran Pipeline
New
 Phase I to CA Border
New
 Phase II in CA to Bay Area
On-line Date
135
900
750
July 1, 2001
May 2003
Late 2003
42
169
1,000
96
November 2001
Summer 2002
Within Next 10 Years
Early 2003
90
126
230
150
500
110
Spring 2002
Undetermined
Late August 2001
Winter 2001
September 2002
September 2002
750
1,500
Summer 2003
Undetermined
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Intrastate Pipeline Proposals
Name of Pipeline
PG&E Intrastate Pipeline
-Redwood Path (Line 400-401) from
Malin
-Baja Path (Line 300) from Topock
SoCal Gas Intrastate Pipeline
-Kramer Junction
-Wheeler Ridge (from Kern/Mojave
and PG&E)
-North Needles (from Transwestern)
-Line 85 (California Production)
- Line 6900 from SoCal Gas to SDG&E
SDG&E Intrastate Pipeline
Various proposals under
consideration in a CPUC proceeding
New /
Capacity
Expansion (MMcfd)
On-line Date
Expansion
Expansion
400
200
Undetermined
Undetermined
Expansion
Expansion
Expansion
Expansion
Expansion
200
85
50
40
70
December 2001
December 2001
December 2001
December 2001
July 2001
Expansion
140 - 220
Undetermined
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land Use
Planning Proposal
• Need to work together
– Energy needs
– Land management constraints
• Propose to initiate process in Fall
2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Energy/Land Use
Planning Proposal
• Objective: meet reasonable energy
facility needs in a manner sensitive
to safety, environmental, and land
management constraints
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Questions?
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION