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Computing
Alternatives
Joel Birnbaum
Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D,
Director, HP Labs
ACM 97
ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing
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ACM 97
James Burke
Master of Ceremonies
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JOEL BIRNBAUM
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Computing
Alternatives
Joel Birnbaum
Hewlett-Packard Senior VP R&D,
Director, HP Labs
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Three Alternatives
Quantum Computing
DNA-based Computing
Optical Computing
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ENIAC Circa 1947
Source: U.S. Army photo
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ENIAC Vital Statistics
Physical Characteristics
19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays
60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet
174 kilowatts
5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004)
Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics)
1,500 vacuum tubes
3,000 pounds
10 kilowatts
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ENIAC Vital Statistics
Physical Characteristics
19,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500 relays
60,000 pounds, 16,200 cubic feet
174 kilowatts
5 kflops (~ same as Intel 4004)
Future Prediction (1949 Popular Mechanics)
1,500 vacuum tubes
3,000 pounds
10 kilowatts
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Moore’s Law
109
?
Transistors per Chip
108
107
Pentium
80486
Pentium Pro
106
80286
80786
80386
105
8086
104
8080
103
4004
1972
1976 1980
1984
1988
1992
Date
1996
2000
2004
2008
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Moore’s Law
109
?
Transistors per Chip
108
107
Pentium
80486
Pentium Pro
106
80286
80786
80386
105
8086
104
8080
103
4004
1972
1976 1980
1984
1988
1992
Date
1996
2000
2004
2008
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Vanishing Electrons
Electrons per Device
104
Transistors per Chip
103
16M
64M
256M
1G
102
4G
16G
101
?
100
10-1
1988 1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Date
Source: Motorola
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Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Height (nm)
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
20
0
-20
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
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Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Height (nm)
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
20
0
-20
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
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Quantum Dots: (Ge Islands on Si)
Height (nm)
Average Height: 15nm
Standard Dev.: <1nm
Density: 6.4 x 109 /cm2
20
0
-20
Source: HP Labs Quantum Structures Research Initiative
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Computational Complexity
Efficiency of an algorithm depends on how its execution
time grows as the size of the problem (input) increases...
Exp
Exp(L)
Execution Time
Ln
NP
L
P
Input Size L
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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Difficulty in Factoring
Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with L
If a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,
factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method
takes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of the
universe (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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Difficulty in Factoring
Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with L
If a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,
factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method
takes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of the
universe (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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Difficulty in Factoring
Number N of L decimal digits: N is of the order 10L
The trial division method: dividing N by 2,3,5... N1/2
Number of divisions required: N1/2 = 10L/2
Grows Exponentially with L
If a computer can perform 1010 divisions per second,
factoring a 100 decimal digit number with this method
takes 1040 seconds, much longer than the age of the
universe (1017 seconds)
Source: Artur Ekert, Clarendon Laboratories, Oxford University
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The Traveling Salesman
Problem:
To find the shortest path from start to end going
through all the points only once.
4
3
1
0
6
2
Source: Dr. Leonard M. Adleman
5
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Step 1:
Generate random paths
Randomly ligate together
pieces of DNA
2
0
3
1
4
6
5
DNA Ligase
0
1
0
2
1
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
6
5
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Step 2:
Keep only paths starting
with 0 and ending with 6
0
1
0
Use the Polymerase Chain
Reaction
2
1
1
2
3
3
1
2
4
4
6
5
3
4
PCR 0-6
0
1
3
0
0
1
1
2
3
2
4
4
6
6
4
5
6
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Step 3:
Separate the PCR products
by PAGE
Keep only paths that enter
exactly 7 vertices
0
1
2
0
0
3
4
2
1
4
2
5
6
6
5
4
5
6
PAGE
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
5
4
4
5
5
6
6
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Step 4:
Isolate DNA by sequential
affinity purification
Keep only paths that enter
all 7 vertices at least once
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
5
4
5
6
Affinity Purification
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Hybrid Fourier Transform
Processor
Digital From
Computer
Spatial
Light
Modulator
Output
Plane
Optical
System
Digital To
Computer
Collimating
Lens
Laser
performs
Fourier Transform
Creates a coherent,
monochromatic light
source
Incoming light
creates desired
input object
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Hybrid Fourier Transform
Processor
Digital From
Computer
Spatial
Light
Modulator
Output
Plane
Optical
System
Digital To
Computer
Collimating
Lens
Laser
performs
Fourier Transform
Creates a coherent,
monochromatic light
source
Incoming light
creates desired
input object
ACM 97
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Hybrid Fourier Transform
Processor
Digital From
Computer
Spatial
Light
Modulator
Output
Plane
Optical
System
Digital To
Computer
Collimating
Lens
Laser
performs
Fourier Transform
Creates a coherent,
monochromatic light
source
Incoming light
creates desired
input object
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The Future:
Communicate with Photons,
but Compute with Electrons
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JOEL BIRNBAUM
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