Transcript plunkettpresentation.ppt

Docket 7081
Transmission Planning Information Workshops
Third Workshop
September 30, 2005
Shaping Demand-Side Resources
To Address Transmission
Constraints
John Plunkett
Optimal Energy, Inc.
1
Shaping Demand-Side Resources
To Address Transmission Constraints
1. Determining desired shape of DSM
resources to address transmission
constraints
2. Shape of reliability solutions needed for
Southern Loop
3. Developing and integrating demand-side
options into Southern Loop transmission
planning
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1. Determining Desired Shape of DSM
Resources
• Seasonal timing of additional capacity
requirements
• Future timing of capacity requirements
• Hourly duration of capacity requirements
3
Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources
(Continued)
Seasonal timing of additional capacity
requirements
• Summer and/or winter peaking?
• NRP disregarded all space-heat fuel-switching
• Southern Loop peak driven by ski area
development, so cooling savings irrelevant.
4
Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources
(Continued)
Future timing of capacity requirements:
• DSM savings take time to build momentum and
accumulate.
• A consistent advance planning horizon is
needed to effectively integrate DSM into
transmission planning (3-10 years).
5
Determining Desired Shape of DSM Resources
(Continued)
Hourly duration of capacity
requirements
• The longer the hourly duration of
constraint, the more kWh per kW of peak
reduction needed
• Efficiency is often superior to load control,
curtailment, or shifting because efficiency
kWh follow hourly load curve before and
after the system reaches peak kW loading
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2. Reliability needs of the Southern Loop
• Load growth driven by ski areas and surrounding communities from
southwestern to southeastern Vermont
• Steady load growth due to ski area expansion since 1980s
• Winter peaking, despite shift to statewide summer peak late 1990s
• CVPS steadily reduced load growth with DSM programs throughout
1990s
• Past emphasis has been on space-heating and water-heating fuelswitching from electricity, high-efficiency snowmaking equipment,
interruptible contracts
• Efficiency Vermont continued efficiency investment 2000-present
• Reliability solutions needed imminently at current loads
• Over time, reliability needs intensify under continued load growth
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3. Developing and Integrating Demand-Side Options
into Southern Loop Transmission Planning
• As part of Southern Loop collaborative, CVPS used the
DUP scoping tool to assess potential for DSM to defer
need for T&D upgrades
• Preliminary findings indicated that additional DSM
– could not defer immediate problems
– Could defer need for subsequent T&D investment to
meet reliability needs in future
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Developing and integrating potential demand-side T&D
capacity options for the Southern Loop (continued)
• VELCO and CVPS engaged Optimal to assist in
detailed analysis of potential efficiency and
renewable options for the Southern Loop
• Scope of alternatives to be examined includes
efficiency, cogeneration, and photovoltaic
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Developing and integrating potential demand-side T&D
capacity options for the Southern Loop (continued)
Progress to date:
– Updated scoping tool analysis to incorporate changes
in available technologies (e.g., super-T8s, T-5s)
– More detailed cost-effectiveness analysis using
program cost-effectiveness analysis tool and more
detailed market and technology characterizations
– Analyzed EVT experience in Southern Loop to refine
assessment of remaining potential
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Developing and integrating potential demand-side T&D
capacity options for the Southern Loop (continued)
Next steps:
– Work with CVPS and VELCO to determine where in region demand
reductions would have most impact on relieving reliability needs (e.g.,
Manchester)
– Work with EVT project managers to determine which efficiency
measures and which customers would provide additional cost-effective
savings
– Perform detailed site visits to a sample of customers to further refine
estimates of achievable potential costs and savings
– Develop draft RFP specifications soliciting demand-side solutions
– Possible that VELCO/CVPS could apply to PSB for combined approval
for
– Initial wires solution to address immediate reliability need
– Expenditures for targeted DSM initiatives to defer need for subsequent
T&D investments
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