Transcript Initial Pitch by Dr. Hester

Context Analysis
Patrick T. Hester, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Engineering Management and Systems Engineering
[email protected]
757-683-5205
The Problem

Analytical and interpretational errors occur regularly
during the formulation, analysis, and solution of
systems problems.

Type III errors occur frequently--“the error associated
with solving the wrong problem precisely” (Mitroff, 1998,
p. 15)

“The initial representation or conceptualization of a
problem is so crucial to its subsequent treatment that
one is tempted to say that the most important as well as
most difficult issue underlying the subject of problem
solving is precisely ‘the problem of how to represent
problems.’” (Mitroff & Featheringham, 1974, p. 383)
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The Problem cont.

Failure to properly define the scope of the
problem results in inadequate problem
statements and commonly results in “the error
committed by giving the right answer to the
wrong problem” (Kaiser, 1957, p. 134).

Significant contributor to Type III error is a poor
understanding and characterization of the
problem’s context and environment
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The Solution
Graphical tool for automatically generating and
outputting a graphic similar to this one:
Context
External Systems
System
are impacted by “System”
impacts, but not impacted by, “System”
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The Big Picture
This tool will eventually interface with the
STakeholder Analysis Tool (STAT) currently
finishing development in CS 411 to provide a
complete understanding of problem
characteristics and associated stakeholders
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References

Kaiser, H. F. (1960). Directional Statistical Decisions. Psychological
Review, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 160-167.

Mitroff, I. I. (1998). Smart Thinking for Crazy Times: The Art of
Solving the Right Problems. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler
Publishers.

Mitroff, I. I., & Featheringham, T. R. (1974). On Systematic Problem
Solving and the Error of the Third Kind. Behavioral Science, Vol. 19,
No. 6, pp. 383-393.
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