Transcript Failure Guidelines Slides

Treatment of Intertie Failures
Intertie Trading Subcommittee
November 24, 2003
Purpose
• Update on source and volume of intertie
transaction failures
• Focus on ‘economic’ failures with NYISO
subject to review under 7/7.5.8A of the market
rules
• Assess impact of existing MACD guidelines and
propose change
Intertie Failures
Generally:
• Volume of intertie trading 1,567,000 MWh average monthly
from May to Sept./03
– 787,000 MWh imports, 780,000 MWh exports
• On average, 132,000 MWh (8.4%) fail monthly for all reasons
(security, TLRs, uneconomic, NERC tag discrepancies)
• Exports failures predominant in recent months
– 17,800 MWh imports, 114,500 MWh exports failed
• NERC tagging failures are a small portion of the overall intertie
failure rate.
Monthly Failures
All Failures - Imports and Exports
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
MWh
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Month
Import Failures (MWh)
Export Failures (MWh)
Sep-03
Oct-03
Intertie Failures - Reliability
Imports
• Failed imports have an effect on reliability during on-peak hours
– During the day, most units that have committed to run are, thus, all
scheduled energy must be delivered as promised or demand could exceed
supply
Exports
• Failed exports tend to have an effect on reliability during offpeak hours
– Thermal units left online overnight in anticipation of exports may be
forced into UBG state if transactions fail
– Hydroelectrics may not be available to be constrained down due to their
inability to safely spill
– In summary, resources are less maneuverable which limits the options
available to stay out of an over-generated state
Intertie Failures - Market Impact
Imports
• When import transaction fails, IMO must find more
expensive generation to compensate for failure
• This tends to raise HOEP relative to pre-dispatch price
Exports
• When export transaction fails, IMO may constrain off
domestic generation to compensate for failure
• This tends to lower HOEP relative to pre-dispatch price
and cause increase in CMSC payments
Intertie Failures
Imports - On Peak
• Of the 17,800 MWh of all failed imports, 11,100 MWh of
imports failed during peak hours
– Of those on-peak import failures, 1,700 MWh failed for economics (15%
of all failed on peak imports)
Exports - Off Peak
• Of the 114,500 MWh of all failed exports, 78,000 MWh failed
during off peak hours
– Of those off-peak export failures, 18,700 MWh failed for economics
(24% of all failed off peak exports)
Current Guidelines
• Current Guidelines allow 3 safe harbours:
– 1,000 MWh or 3% failure rate
– No further review if HAM is volatile
– Bid or offers within $10 or 20% of HAM price
Economic Failures - July 2003
PASSED
Test #1
PASSED
Test #1 and Test #2
PASSED
Test #1, Test #2 and
Test #3
15,308 MWh
16,797 MWh
21,405 MWh
Total NYISO Economic
Failures
FAILED
Test #1
FAILED
Test #1 and Test #2
22,316 MWh
7,008 MWh
5,519 MWh
FAILED
Test #1, Test #2 and
Test #3
175 MWh
Investigation Closed
Subject to further
review
Proposal
Single safe harbour
– acceptable failure ratio of 3%
– measured according to time and direction of
failure:
•
•
•
•
on-peak imports
on-peak exports
off-peak imports
off-peak exports
Interties by the Numbers Sanctionable MWh
Guidelines
Import - On peak
Import - Off peak
Export - On peak
Export - Off peak
MW failed for
MW failed for
all reasons
economics
12,300
11,100
26,600
52,500
1,700
1,000
4,400
18,700
3% Failure Volatility/
Ratio
Stability
700
300
2,200
6,500
400
200
1,700
4,300
PIT
Sanctionable
40
0
200
300
40
0
200
300
These are monthly averages to illustrate the impact of the existing
Guidelines.
Interties by the Numbers Sanctionable MWh
Import - On peak
Import - Off peak
Export - On peak
Export - Off peak
MW failed for
all reasons
12,300
11,100
26,600
52,500
MW failed for
Existing Proposed
economics Guidelines Guidelines
1,700
40
100
1,000
0
0
4,400
200
200
18,700
300
13,600
These are monthly averages to illustrate the impact of the proposed
Guidelines had they been in place for the previous period.
Going Forward
• Consultation with market participants on
proposed changes - Intertie Trading
Subcommittee
• Decision on revised guidelines
• Continued monitoring of intertie
performance