Transcript PPT

Overview of the 2010 Round of Population and
Housing Censuses with Emphasis on
Innovations
Srdjan Mrkić
United Nations Statistics Division
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
General overview
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
- The seventh such programme since the inception of the
United Nations
- As of October 2014, out of 235 countries or areas
- 216 already conducted a population and housing census
- 19 did not plan nor conduct/schedule a census,
compared to 26 countries or areas in the 2000 round
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
General overview – 1990 round of censuses
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
General overview – 2000 round of censuses
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
General overview – 2010 round of censuses
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
General overview – 2010 round
Number of countries/areas that conducted, plan to conduct and did not schedule a
population and housing census in the 2010 round, by year
70
62
60
50
43
40
30
27
20
16
15
14
11
12
2007
2008
19
17
9
10
0
2005
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
No
census
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
2010 round findings
Main census methodology
- Full field enumeration (85 % of surveyed countries)
- Administrative registers (10 %)
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Rolling census
Rolling census
- Combination of full enumeration for certain areas and
sampling surveys in other
- Initiated by a number of factors, including concerns
regarding the different periodicity and costs
- In France, since 2004
- The concept dates back to 1960’s – became feasible
for large statistical exercises in the 1990’s due to
theoretical and technological development
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Rolling census
- France consists of 36,682 municipalities (communes)
- Half of the population resides in around 36 thousand
small communes with population less than 10,000
- The other half resides in less than one thousand
large communes with the population well over
10,000
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Rolling census
- All small communes are distributed in five groups for
each arrondissment (large region, 22 in total) based on
age groups, sex and type of dwelling
- Full and complete enumeration once in a five year
period
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Rolling census
- As for large communes, the sample is based on an
inventory of buildings/addresses
- Addresses are distributed in five groups, as in the case
of small communes
- Each year, 40% of one group is enumerated
- In a five year period, identical sample of each group is
enumerated
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Rolling census
- As a result, the rolling census covers 14% percent of the
population each year – one-fifth of all the small
communes is enumerated each year, which represent
approximately 10% of the total population and around
8% of the large communes, which is approximately 4%
of the total population
- After five years, the total of the enumerated persons
amounts to approximately 70% of the total population,
allowing for extrapolation and interpolation for small
areas
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Rolling census
- Issues:
- Simultaneity
- Double enumeration
- Universality
- Advantages:
- Once set in motion, generates annual, up-to-date
small area statistics
- Less costly
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Combination
- Replacing the long form with a rolling survey
American Community Survey
- In the United States, full enumeration on just 10
questions and is conducted once every ten years
- For all the other population and housing census topics,
a rolling survey
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Combination
- Four stages of development:
-
Design stage – 1990-1993
Development stage – 1994-1999
Demonstration stage – 2000 – 2004
Full implementation – 2005 onwards, around
3 million housing units are sampled each
year
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Main census methodology – Combination
- Moving averages for smallest geographical areas –
census tracts – became available after five-year data
gathering
- After that, data are available on annual basis
- Introduced over a long period of time
- Required institutional and methodological reengineering
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
2010 round findings
Enumeration methods used in 2010 round
Total countries
Percent
Total
126
100
Face-to-face interview, paper questionnaire
94
75
Face-to-face interview, electronic questionnaire
14
11
Telephone
14
11
Self-enumeration, paper questionnaire, collected by enumerators
30
24
Self-enumeration, paper questionnaire, return by mail
18
14
Self-enumeration, internet
33
26
Register-based enumeration
18
14
Pre-existing administrative records
8
6
Other
2
2
* Note that the sum of the categories exceeds 100% as countries were asked to provide answers as to all the
methods they applied.
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
2010 round findings
Type of technology used in 2010 round
Total countries
Percent
Total
121
100
Internet
50
43
Laptop computers
31
27
Hand-held/Pocket computers
10
9
Tablet computers
4
3
Geographical information systems (GIS)
75
64
Computer-assisted coding
57
48
Optical mark recognition
38
33
Optical character reading
49
42
Other imaging techniques and scanning devices
44
38
Other
25
21
None of the above
6
5
* Note that the sum of the categories exceeds 100% as countries were asked to provide answers as to all the
technologies they applied.
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
2010 round findings
Dissemination tools used in 2010 round
Paper publication
66
CD ROM/DVD
86
Static Web pages
77
Interactive online databaase
54
GIS web-based mapping
tools
54
Other
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Number of countries
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014
Looking ahead to the 2020 round
Focusing on five points
- Use of administrative registers
- Role of social media
- Use of tablet computers
- Role of the internet
- Dissemination of micro data
United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and recommendations for
Population and Housing Censuses and Census Evaluation
Amman, Jordan, 19 – 23 October 2014