Transcript Grasso et al

Thatcher’s Children:
The Long Shadow?
Maria Grasso*, Stephen Farrall+,
Emily Gray+, Colin Hay*, Will Jennings^
*Department of Politics, University of Sheffield
+School of Law, University of Sheffield
^Department of Politics and International Relations,
University of Southampton
PSA 30 March-1 April, 2015
Outline
• Previous research
• Hypotheses
• Data
• Methods
• Variables
• Analysis
• Conclusions
Previous Research
• First studies analysing extent to which
electorate had ‘become Thatcherite’
emerged when Thatcher was still in office
(e.g. Crewe 1988, 1989): evidence largely
suggested no change
• Later studies started to challenge this
account and begun to speak of a ‘Thatcher
Effect’ (e.g. Russell et al. 1992) and
showed younger cohorts entering electorate
during her time in office more conservative
than would be expected (e.g. Tilley 2002)
Previous Research
• Modernisation theory (Inglehart 1977, 1990)
suggests that each younger cohort should
be more liberal than previous cothorts
• However, Curtice (2009) argues that the
Thatcherite project was actually completed
by Blair; there is a lot of evidence on the
influence of Thatcherite values on New
Labour (e.g. Hay 1996, Heffernan 2000)
• For many, New Labour was simply
‘Thatcherism by another name’
Research Questions
• To what extent is Thatcher’s legacy
reflected in a slowing down or reversal of
the trend towards greater modernisation
amongst younger cohorts?
• Are Thatcher’s Children more right-wing
and authoritarian than previous cohorts?
• We also examine the reproduction of
Thatcherite values: Do patterns continue or
reverse for Blair’s Babies (a.k.a.Thatcher’s
Grand-Children)? Can we detect evidence
for a ‘Long Shadow’ of Thatcherism?
Hypotheses
• H1: The generation coming of age during
Thatcher’s/Major’s governments will be
more strongly right-wing and authoritarian
than both generations coming of age before
and after them (Thatcher’s Children)
• H2: The generation coming of age during
New Labour governments will be more
strongly right wing and authoritarian than
generations coming of age before them
(Blair’s Babies/Thatcher’s Grand-Children)
Data
• British Social Attitudes 1985-2012
• Merged dataset was compiled by Emily,
Will, Steve and Colin in the context of the
ESRC project Long-term Trajectories of
Crime in the UK (see Jennings et al 2015)
• Long time series of data spanning social
attitudinal data ideal for capturing long term
trends and social change e.g. intergenerational replacement
Methods
• The method for age-period-cohort analysis
is discussed in detail in Grasso (2014) in
Electoral Studies
• Categorisation of political generations
based on historical period of socialisation
• Application of generalised additive models
(GAMs) to solve the identification problem
and plot smoothed cohort effect
• Age-period-cohort models and Wald tests
to test for differences between generations
Variables
• Examine nine dependent variables; three
on each of three dimensions (PCA results):
redistribution and inequality, benefits and
unemployment, punishment and authority
• Age-period-cohort models: political
generations, age groups, survey year
• Controls: gender, education, marital status,
employment status, income, private
education, home ownership, union
membership, social class, Conservative
party identification
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Conclusions
• Evidence in favour of both Thatcher’s
Children and particularly, Blair’s
Babies/Thatcher’s Grand-Children.
• The socialisation of Thatcher’s Children
took place when Thatcherism remained
politically contested. Effect is even stronger
for Thatcher’s Grand-Children since by then
socialisation was taking place when
Thatcherism was no longer politically
contested – since New Labour had
internalised much of it too.