Transcript Day 3 01 Introduction to climate change session J.Bell

Introduction
to the climate change session
Johann Bell
Vulnerability
assessment
Supported by
Why are we so concerned?
Anchoveta catch (million t)
El Nino
1972 1983
140E
160E
180
160W
• Peruvian anchovy
140W
40N
120E
1998
20N
30N
La Nina El Nino
0
10N
20S
10S
30S
130E
150E
170E
170W
150W
130W
• Skipjack tuna
How could climate change derail
our plans?
• Optimise contributions of
tuna to economic
development
• Provide sufficient fish for
food security
• Maximise sustainable
livelihoods from fisheries
resources
Our approach
Projected changes to atmospheric
and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic
development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations needed to maintain
productivity - management and
policies
Complex task
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Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Germany
Australian Institute of Marine Science
CSIRO
CLS, Satellite Oceanography Division, France
C20 Consulting, Australia
Danish Meteorological Institute
Forum Fisheries Agency
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
IFREMER
Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement
James Cook University
LSCE, IPSL, Paris, France
National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
NOAA
Network of Aquaculture Centres for Asia Pacific
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Papua New Guinea National Fisheries Authority
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Service de la Peche French Polynesia
Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation
Solomon Islands Ministry of Fisheries
SPREP
The WorldFish Center
University of Hawaii
University of Auckland
University of New South Wales
University of Queensland
University of Singapore
University of Tasmania
Vanuatu Fisheries Department
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA
Western Australia Department of Fisheries
*Members of Technical Working Group
Main products
1. Book
‘Vulnerability of Fisheries and Aquaculture in
the Tropical Pacific to Climate Change’
2. Summary for Policy Makers
• Products available October 2011 – to be launched at SPC
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Conference in Marshall Islands
Followed by a regional workshop in 2012 to translate
main findings into priority adaptations
Today’s programme
Projected changes to atmospheric
and oceanic conditions
x
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic
development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations
Today’s programme
Presentations before lunch (meet the experts!)
Projected changes to Pacific surface climate
Janice Lough
AIMS
Projected changes to the Pacific Ocean
Alex Ganachaud
IRD
Vulnerability of freshwater fisheries
Peter Gehrke
SMEC
Vulnerability of aquaculture
Tim Pickering
SPC
Vulnerability of coastal fisheries
Morgan Pratchett
JCU
Vulnerability of oceanic fisheries
Patrick Lehodey
CLS
(Mangroves, seagrasses, intertidal flats)
Michelle Waycott
JCU
(Coral reefs)
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg UQ
(Food webs for tuna)
Robert Le Borgne
IRD
(Co-editor)
Johanna Johnson
C20
Today’s programme
Presentations after lunch
Implication for economic development, food
security and livelihoods
Johann Bell
SPC
Integrating fisheries and climate change initiatives Johann Bell
SPC
Monitoring the impacts on coastal fisheries
Lindsay Chapman SPC
Monitoring the impacts for oceanic fisheries
John Hampton
SPC
Today’s
Today’sprogramme
programme
Discussion groups
 Information needed at national level
 Possible key adaptations
Johann Bell,
Johanna Johnson,
Lindsay Chapman,
Tim Pickering
SPC
Your session!
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Programme includes plenty of time for
questions
Climate change scenarios
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fourth Assessment Report 2007
2 scenarios and 2 timeframes
Timeframe
CO2 emissions
IPCC name
2035
2100
Low
High
Low
B1
A2
B1
High
Global
A2
Climate change scenarios
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fourth Assessment Report 2007
A2 (High)
Global emissions
are tracking A2
B1 (Low)
Global
Scenario
2035 B1
2035 A2
2100 B1
2100 A2
CO2 (ppm)
~ 400
~ 400
~500
750-800
Climate change scenarios
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fourth Assessment Report 2007
Scenario
2035 B1
2035 A2
2100 B1
2100 A2
CO2 (ppm)
~ 400
~ 400
~500
750-800
2050 A2
Climate change scenarios
• Projections for surface climate, tropical Pacific
Ocean and fish stocks
Scenario
2035 B1
2035 A2
2100 B1
2100 A2
• Projected effects on plans for economic
development, food security and livelihoods
Scenario
2035 B1
2035 A2
2100 B1
2050 A2
2100 A2
Vulnerability framework
For assessing effects of projected changes on fish stocks