Transcript 10. Implications adaptations for economic development

Implications, adaptations & policies
for economic development
Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to
atmospheric and oceanic
conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic
development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce
threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Outline
• Revisit changes in tuna distribution
• Implications for government
revenue and GDP
• Framework for adaptations
 Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies
Projected changes in skipjack tuna
• Future distributions
of tuna are likely to
resemble those
during El Nino events
today
Skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)
Skipjack projection
Vanuatu = +2
Vanuatu = +3
Vanuatu = -12
Unexploited
Fishing effort x 1.5
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• Vanuatu’s two purse-seine vessels may eventually
need to fish in the EEZs of nations further to the
east – as they do now during El Nino events
Bigeye projection
2050
2000
Adult biomass
Larval density
2000
2050
Good fishing grounds
could be displaced further
eastward
Implications of altered bigeye catch
2035
2050
2100
-3%
-6%
-10%
• Possible slight reduction in catches and export
from Vanuatu’s EEZ
Adaptation decision framework
Near-term Loss
Near-term Gain
Addresses present drivers
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Lose-Lose
Long-term Gain
Lose-Win
X
X
Win-Lose

Win-Win
X


x
X
After Grafton (2010)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
La Niña
El Niño
Adaptations
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage
effort of industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of
VDS enable all PNA
members to receive some
benefits during ENSO
Ask
events, regardless
of where
tuna are concentrated
Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1977)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Adaptations
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage
effort of industrial tuna fleets
• Allocation of vessel days is
adjusted regularly
2050
Ask
S
2100
Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)
Adaptations
• Help develop and implement the VDS for the
longline fishery
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Immediate conservation
measures for tuna
• Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and
preventing overfishing of other tuna, will:
 maintain stocks at healthy levels
 make these valuable species more
resilient to climate change
Bigeye tuna
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Energy audits for industrial
fishing vessels
• Addresses likelihood of near-term
rises in fuel costs
• Assists national fleets from west
to go greater distances in the
future to catch fish for their
canneries
Photo: Bruno Leroy
Other adaptations
• Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in
the cyclone belt
• Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent
inundation by rising sea levels and more
severe cyclones
Suggested supporting policies
Promote access agreements that are clear for all
stakeholders; and strengthen national capacity to
implement effort schemes
Adjust tuna management plans to increase
flexibility to sell tuna, or acquire tuna
Include implications of climate change in
management objectives of WCPFC
Suggested supporting policies
Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level
catch and effort data to improve tuna models
Develop further measures to reduce capture of
bigeye tuna by purse-seine
Develop tuna products and distribution channels
that minimise CO2 emissions
Conclusions
• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce
risks and capitalise on opportunities
• Supporting policies are required
• Integrate adaptations and policies into
national strategies and action plans for
climate change