Transcript Day 2 Developing pathways for change Using a Theory of Change

Developing pathways for
change
Using a Theory of Change
Dr Will Allen
Learning for Sustainability – http://learningforsustainability.net
[email protected]
What is a Theory of Change (TOC)
What is a Theory of Change (TOC)
• Both a process and a product
• A dialogue-based process that helps us
describe a sequence of events that are
expected to lead to some desired outcomes
• Results in a description (diagram and
narrative) that provides a road map for the
project team and stakeholders
A road-map to our destination
Situation
analysis
Action plans
Outcomes
Desired
future
A road-map to our destination
Situation
analysis
Action plans
Monitoring plans to build
flexibility and review
Process
Results
Outcomes
Desired
future
A road-map to our destination
Situation
analysis
Action plans
Monitoring plans to build
flexibility and review
Process
Results
Outcomes
Desired
future
Assumptions – evidence that this will likely work
External Factors – synergies/risks
Developing a Theory of Change
Step 1
Setting context and vision
Step 2
Articulating outcomes and intermediate
outcomes (pre-conditions)
Mapping sequence of events (inputs,
activities, outputs, outcomes)
Step 3
Step 4
Step 5
Clarifying our assumptions (why do we
think that will work)
Creating an M&E plan (are we on track)
Developing a pathway for change
Example: Increased technical support to CBFM
Current
situation
Desired
vision
Example: Increased technical support to CBFM
Min not
supporting
communities
Move to
support
CBFM
Example: Increased technical support to CBFM
Inputs
Min not
supporting
communities
Move to
support
CBFM
Activities and
What we
do
Outputs
Outcomes - Impact
Intermediate
Long-term
What happens
because of it
Example: Increased technical support to CBFM
Min not
supporting
communities
Move to
support
CBFM
Inputs
Activities and
Outputs
Outcomes - Impact
Intermediate
Long-term
Staff
Staff training
in CBFM
# of
trained
officer
s
Motivated &
engaged staff
$s
Tech
advice
x% communities
partner with Min
of Fish
Robust fish
stocks
Community
management
evidenced
Example: Increased technical support to CBFM
Min not
supporting
communities
Move to
support
CBFM
Inputs
Activities and
Outputs
Outcomes - Impact
Intermediate
Long-term
Staff
Staff training
in CBFM
# of
trained
officer
s
Motivated &
engaged staff
$s
Tech
advice
x% communities
partner with Min
of Fish
Robust fish
stocks
Community
management
evidenced
Assumptions: Community ownership of fisheries crucial
Example: Increased technical support to CBFM
Min not
supporting
communities
Move to
support
CBFM
Inputs
Activities and
Outputs
Outcomes - Impact
Intermediate
Long-term
Staff
Staff training
in CBFM
# of
trained
officer
s
Motivated &
engaged staff
$s
Tech
advice
x% communities
partner with Min
of Fish
Robust fish
stocks
Community
management
evidenced
Monitoring & Evaluation
An effective pathway to change will
• Consider each program or project within a
wider analysis of how change comes about
• Focus on where we are trying to get to
(outcomes), not on what we plan to do
• Explain our understanding of change – and
document it
• And challenges us to explore it further – and
to critically reflect on our progress as the
journey unfolds
Some useful TOC resources
• LfS – annotated links to a range of TOC guides
http://learningforsustainability.net/evaluation/theoryofchange.php
• Stein D, Valters C. 2012. Understanding Theory of Change in international
development: A review of existing practice http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/pdf/outputs/JSRP/ToC_Lit_Review.pdf
• Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (PIPA)
http://pipamethodology.pbworks.com/w/page/70283575/FrontPage
• Vogel I. 2012. Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international
development
http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/pdf/outputs/mis_spc/DFID_ToC_Review_VogelV7.pdf