Transcript 101022Seattle_OLYMPEX_PMMHydroTelecon_Houze.ppt

“OLYMPEX”
•November-December 2014
•Physical validation
•Precipitation estimation
•Hydrological applications
PMM Hydrology Telecon, 22 October 2010
Contributors
• W. Peterson
• R. Cifelli
• T. Schneider
• D. Lettenmaier
• N. Voison
• N. Schraner
• J. Lundquist
• S. Medina
• S. Brodzik
The Olympic Peninsula is a
“natural laboratory”
for precipitation studies
Extremely large precipitation
accumulation produced as the moist
SWly flow impinges on coastal terrain
Maximum
Annual average
precipitation (PRISM)
Detailed Climatology
5-yr MM5 Nov-Jan precipitation climatology (mm)
Verified by gauges: Minder et al. 2008
Low 0ºC level
 rain at low elevations, snow at higher levels
Frequency of occurrence
Distribution of Nov-Jan
0°C level for flow that is
onshore and moist at low
levels (KUIL sounding)
Mean 0°C level during
storms = 1.5 km
See this full range in
individual storms!
0°C level (km)
Plot provided by Justin Minder
Persistent southwesterly flow during the winter
provides a reliable source of moisture
NCEP long-term mean sea level pressure (mb) for
winter (December to January) and topography
NWS WSR-88D radar to be in place ~2012
NOAA Mobile Atmospheric River Monitoring System in
Westport (since 2009)
Data from vertically-pointing S-band radar
Height
Signal-tonoise ratio
Height
Radial
velocity
Time
UW fine-scale observing network across a
southwestern Olympics ridge
Detailed gauge network
Minder et al. 2008
UW Real Time Regional Environmental Modeling
(Mass & Lettenmaier)
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WRF
Ensemble mode
1.33 resolution
Data assimilation
UW Real Time Regional Environmental Modeling
(Mass & Lettenmaier)
Real time
hydrological
prediction driven
by the UW WRF
simulations
Also—ESRL will
be doing parallel
modeling
Overview of OLYMPEX
layout
+NSF Facilities!!??
SNOTEL
RAWS
S-Band profiler
Atmos. River Observatory
NPOL
WSR-88D
Quillayute Rawinsonde
Detail of Quinault Valley
Physical validation of rain and snow
retrievals
(i.e. are physical assumptions in GPM algorithms
robust under different conditions)
a. Rain-snow transition on sloping terrain
b. Melting layer effect on algorithm performance
c. Different storm sectors—prefrontal, frontal,
postfrontal
d. Different surface conditions—ocean, land,
coast, hills, mountains
Rain and snow measurement
(i.e. validation of its accuracy from satellite
instruments mounted on aircraft)
a.
Do precipitation measurements transition
accurately from
– ocean to land
– land to mountains?
b.
c.
Do they handle the orographic enhancement
of precipitation?
Can satellite rain measurements be downscaled
accurately relative to the topography?
Hydrologic applications
(i.e. testing whether GPM data can improve
streamflow forecasting in complex terrain)
a. Can satellite rain estimates over hills and
mountains provide useful input to real-time
hydrologic forecasting?
b. Does downscaling relative to topography
improve hydrologic forecasting?
c. Can assimilation of satellite rain estimates into
regional forecasting models improve
hydrological forecasts?
Summary
OLYMPEX is a fully integrated GV
experiment
i. Physical validation
ii. Rain and snow measurement
iii. Assimilation of GPM measurements
into hydrologic forecasts
The climatology, terrain, and existing
infrastructure have all the ingredients for
hosting an integrated campaign
This research was supported by NASA grant NNX10AH70G