Transcript RTMA452.ppt

RTMA
(Real Time Mesoscale Analysis
System)
NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System
for verifying model output and
human forecasts.
RTMA
• Downscales a short-term forecast to fine-resolution
terrain and coastlines and then uses observations to
produce a fine-resolution analysis.
• Performs a 2-dimensional variational analysis (2d-var)
using current surface observations, including
mesonets, and scatterometer winds over water, using
short-term forecast as first guess.
• Provides estimates of the spatially-varying magnitude
of analysis errors
• Also includes hourly Stage II precipitation estimates
and Effective Cloud Amount, a GOES derived product
• Either a 5-km or 2.5 km analysis.
RTMA
• The RTMA depends on a short-term model
forecast for a first guess, thus the RTMA is
affected by the quality of the model's
analysis/forecast system
• CONUS first guess is downscaled from a 1-hour
RUC forecast.
• Because the RTMA uses mesonet data, which is
of highly variable quality due to variations in
sensor siting and sensor maintenance,
observation quality control strongly affects the
analysis.
Why does NWS want this?
• Gridded verification of their gridded forecasts
(NDFD)
• Serve as a mesoscale Analysis of Record (AOR)
• For mesoscale forecasting and studies.
RTMA 2dVAR update
RUC-RTMA downscaling
to detailed RTMA background
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RTMA 2dVAR update
RUC-RTMA downscaling
to detailed RTMA background
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TX 2 m Temperature Analysis
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TX 2 m Temperature Analysis
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TX 2 m Temperature Increment
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