Transcript presentation

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
and Biodiversity in South Africa
Michelle Lau ‘12
Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School, Summer 2010
Woodrow Wilson School STEP Program
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STEP: The Program in Science, Technology, and
Environmental Policy
Goals of the program are to develop an understanding of:
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The nature of scientific, technological and environmental
problems and opportunities
The specialized methods used for analyzing scientific,
technological and environmental issues
The dynamics of science and technology in relation to national
and international institutions and organizations
Project Background and Goals
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Project aims to investigate the potential impacts to
biodiversity and agriculture that result from human
responses to climate change
Focus on South Africa because it is a region highly
vulnerable to climate change and has a large, diverse
agricultural sector
First stage involves preparing data and running crop
models
Worked closely with Lyndon Estes, post-doctoral
researcher of the Woodrow Wilson School in the STEP
Program
What I Did: Data Preparation
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Before running the crop
models, I prepared wheat
and maize yield data
received from South Africa
Detrended yield data to
remove any market
influences
Also prepared soils data
and climate data
What I Did: Crop Model Runs
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Used DSSAT, which
models crop yields using
soil, climate, and planting
information
Performed a Sensitivity
Analysis to determine
how sensitive the model
was to certain variables
Tuned cultivar coefficients
Reflections
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Became familiar with new programs, ArcGIS, DSSAT, R
Learned how to work independently and developed
research skills
Will continue to work with post-doctoral researcher into
the school year
Thank You!
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Lyndon Estes, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Woodrow
Wilson School and the Program in Science, Technology,
and Environmental Policy
Michael Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and
International Affairs
David Wilcove, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary
Biology and Public Affairs
Grand Challenges Internship Program