Transcript Housing tenure change in Scotland, a comparison between 1991-2001 and 2001-2006

BSPS Annual Conference 2008
Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning
Housing Tenure Change in Scotland
A comparison between 1991-2001 and 2001-2006
Jan Freeke
Glasgow City Council
Housing tenure change in Scotland
Reason for Interest:
Application of cohort component method to forecast social
rented housing demand in Glasgow showed significant
differences between rates of change before and after 2001.
Therefore a need to investigate housing tenure change in
Scotland.
Cohort Component Method
Housing tenure change in Scotland
Two central questions:
1. How different are the rates of change before and after 2001?
2. What are the components of this change?
Data Sources:
1. 1991 Census and 2001 Census for changes 1991-2001
Scottish Household Survey for changes 2001-2006
2. Scottish Longitudinal Study for components of change 1991-2001
This presentation: focus on social rented sector in Scotland
Three aspects:
1. Changes in population by age
2. Changes in population (age 16-74) by economic status
3. Changes in households by type
Housing tenure change in Scotland
Conclusions:
1.
2.
3.
Decline in social rented housing is only partly due to tenure shift
Decline is also influenced by natural change (age cohorts) and migration
Most important differences 2001-2006 as compared with 1991-2001:
• Reduced annual loss for younger people
• Reduced annual reduction for employed people
• Reduced annual reduction for larger households
There are indications that some of these changes are due to factors other
than tenure shift
Housing tenure change in Scotland
Methodological Comments:
1.
2.
3.
Tenure change tends to be measured in terms of households by tenure. It
would be beneficial to also measure change in terms of population, and
their characteristics.
Scottish Longitudinal Study data allow changes to be broken down by
component, which contributes to a better understanding of recent tenure
change.
A better understanding of recent tenure change will assist in the projection
of future tenure change, both in terms of numbers and composition of
households and population by tenure.