Transcript Estimating and projecting the population of National Park Areas in the UK.

Sustainable rural
populations: the case of two
National Park areas
Alan Marshall
Ludi Simpson
Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and
Survey Research
1.Introduction
• Population sustainability is an important
issue in National Parks in the UK
• “If young people and key workers cannot
afford to buy accommodation within park
boundaries then local communities may
suffer economic and social decline”
(Cairncross et al, 2001)
1. Introduction
• Population projections highlight the problem for
policymakers
• Research Questions:
• If recent trends what will be the impact on the
demographic characteristics of National Parks?
• What is the nature of the migration age/sex
profile in the two parks and its impact on
population change?
• What policy implications follow on from the
projections?
2. National Parks in the UK
• National parks in England and Wales were set
up by the National Parks and Access to
Countryside Act (1949)
• Conservation of landscape
• Promotion of public understanding and
enjoyment of the special qualities of the Parks
• Since 1995 - a duty to seek to foster the
economic and social well-being of their local
communities
2. National Parks in the UK
• In Scotland National parks established in
2000
• A primary aim is the promotion of
“sustainable economic and social
development of the area's communities”
• Tension between landscape conservation
and social and economic well-being
• Is there a need for more affordable
housing?
2. National Parks
Demographic characteristics
• PDNP population: 38,000
• CNP population: 16,000
Compared with UK and surrounding districts:
• Older
• Predominantly white
• Higher proportions of retired and self employed
• Lower proportion of social housing
• Smaller average household size
• Higher proportions of holiday/second homes
3. Data and methodology
• Standard population and household projection
methods. Extended to labour force for PDNP
• Population projections use the cohort
component methodology
• Age/sex headship and economic activity rates
• POPGROUP projection software used to create
projections.
• Method requires very detailed data (single year
of age and sex detail for each component)
3. Data and methodology
Issues:
Non standard boundaries
•
Estimation using proportions based upon residential
addresses
Small area estimation - Data availability and
robustness of demographic rates
•
Use local data where possible to calibrate detailed
schedules from relevant reference populations (wards,
districts or national).
3. Data and methodology
Population projections
•
•
•
•
Base population:
2001 census (table CAS001)
Fertility and mortality:
GAD 2004 projections of age/sex specific fertility
and mortality rates
• Vital statistics (output areas): estimates of
numbers of births and deaths in park areas
(2001-4)
• Migration:
• age/sex schedule based on in and out migration
in the year before the census
3. Data and methodology
Household projections
• DCLG projected headship rates - PDNP
• GROS projected headship rates - CNP
• Census 2001 park estimates of household
numbers in each DCLG/GROS category
Communal establishment population (Census
2001)
Economic activity projections (PDNP only)
• ONS projected economic activity rates
• Census 2001 park estimates of numbers
economically active
4. Results
Pop
HH
Economic 60+
change change activity
population
(%)
(%)
change
change (%)
(%)
PDNP
-15.3% -1.1%
-36%
+57%
CNP
+9%
n/a
+91%
+20%
CNP population change between 2001-25 and CNP household change between 2001-16
All PDNP characteristics show change between 2001-26
Cairngorms National Park Projections: Age Pyramid
Comparison of population forecast for 2001 with 2025
Red shows an excess in 2001
Blue shows an excess in 2025
90+
80
Males
Females
70
60
50
40
2001 – 26% 60+
2025 – 45% 60+
30
20
10
0
200
150
100
50
50
100
150
200
250
Peak National Park Projections: Age Pyramid
Comparison of population forecast for 2001 with 2026
Red shows an excess in 2001
Blue shows an excess in 2026
90+
80
Males
Females
70
60
50
40
2001 – 26% 60+
2026 – 49% 60+
30
20
10
0
400
300
200
100
100
200
300
400
500
4. Results: Migration profile
Total projected net migrants (2001-2024)
400
200
0
Migrants
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-200
-400
-600
-800
In migration at older ages
CNP +3645 (35-55)
Out migration young
adults
PDNP:
+2457 (38-64
CNP: -1570
Net effect over all ages
PDNP: -7156
CNP: +4168
PDNP: +405
-1000
Age
PP total net migrants
CNP total net migrants
4. Results – PDNP components of change
PDNP: Components of population change 2001-2026
200
-100
-200
-300
-400
Year
Natural change
Net migration
Population change
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
Number of people
100
4. Results – CNP components of change
CNP: Components of population change 2001-2026
400
200
100
-100
-200
Year
Natural change
Net migration
population change
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
Number of people
300
4. Results: PDNP - Zero net
migration and Natural change
projections
Projection
2001
2026
population population
%
Change
%
Population
60 and
over
Zero net
migration
35,157
30,591
-17.6 %
50.0 %
Natural
change
35,157
32,772
-8.4%
40.0 %
4. Results: PDNP Alternative scenarios
Projection
Census based
% Population
change
-15%
% Working age
pop change
-38%
48 dwellings p/a
-6.3%
-29%
95 dwellings p/a
1.1%
-22%
150 dwellings
p/a
9.9%
-13%
4. Results: Household projections
• Relative to the population change number
of households projected to increase
• Elderly population more likely to live in
single person households
• Lower household sizes projected
nationally
5. Discussion: Policy implications
•
•
•
•
•
Aging of population a real concern
Tackle the out migration 16-35 age range
Affordable housing
Attractiveness of the Park to the young
Further research – why are young people
moving out?
Thank you!
Any Questions/comments